Zac Gallen (3-5, 5.43) gets the ball for Arizona opposite Andrew Abbott (4-4, 4.10) at Great American Ball Park. Gallen is coming off another 9-hit, 5.1-inning grind against Miami where he didn't factor in the decision but kept the bleeding going. Abbott's last start was actually sharp — 6 innings, 4 hits, 3 earned and a tough-luck loss to San Diego — but the bigger arc on him this year is a season ERA north of 5 and an arm-angle tweak that's still cooking.
The series itself has been a slugfest pretending to be a pitchers' duel. Arizona stole the opener 5-2, then the Reds clawed back 2-1 on a Noelvi Marte go-ahead homer in the 8th on Saturday. That gives Cincinnati a real shot at the series win in front of a Sunday home crowd, and gives Arizona a chance to end a road trip that started with 3 straight losses in Miami with a split.
The injury picture is what really shapes this one. Cincinnati is still without Elly De La Cruz, who was leading the team in homers and RBIs before the hamstring grab, and the bullpen is gutted — Emilio Pagán just got an MRI on his own hamstring Saturday, Pierce Johnson is out, and Hunter Greene is nowhere near back. Arizona's not exactly whole either, with Corbin Burnes shut down again, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on a rehab assignment, and Carlos Santana still working his way back.
- Day-To-DayA.J. Vukovich CF — no
- Day-To-DayDerek Law RP — no
- Day-To-DayKyle Amendt RP — Amendt was invited to major-league spring training by the Diamondbacks, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
- 10-Day-ILLourdes Gurriel Jr. LF — Gurriel (hamstring) began a rehab assignment in the rookie-level Arizona Complex League Monday, going 1-for-4 with an RBI single.
- 10-Day-ILJames McCann C — McCann (quad) has started taking machine batting practice and doing catching drills, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
- 60-Day-ILA.J. Puk RP — The Diamondbacks paused Puk's (elbow) rehab Friday due to left shoulder discomfort, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.
- 60-Day-ILCarlos Santana 1B — Santana (thigh) began a rehab assignment in the Arizona Complex League on Friday, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
- 60-Day-ILCorbin Burnes SP — Manager Torey Lovullo said Wednesday that Burnes (elbow) has been shut down from throwing after suffering a teres major strain, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.
- Day-To-DayConnor Burns C — no
- 10-Day-ILElly De La Cruz SS — Reds manager Terry Francona said Friday that an MRI showed De La Cruz's right hamstring strain to be 90 percent healed, Charlie Clifford of NBC 5 Cincinnati reports.
- 10-Day-ILJose Trevino C — Trevino (hamstring) will make one final rehab appearance for Triple-A Louisville before being activated Friday, MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILKe'Bryan Hayes 3B — Hayes is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Phillies.
- 15-Day-ILEmilio Pagan RP — Pagan (hamstring) is scheduled to undergo an MRI on Saturday, MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILPierce Johnson RP — Johnson (elbow) is expected to toss a bullpen session Tuesday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- 60-Day-ILHunter Greene SP — Reds manager Terry Francona told reporters Saturday that Greene (elbow) could return from the 60-day injured list prior to the All-Star break, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- 60-Day-ILGraham Ashcraft RP — Ashcraft (elbow) received a platelet-rich plasma injection Tuesday, MLB.com reports.
Form-wise, neither side is playing winning baseball. Arizona is 35-35 after a brutal 0-for-Miami stretch where they got shut out twice in a row. The Reds are 33-36 and have alternated wins and losses for what feels like a month. This is 2 teams clinging to .500 and treating every series like the standings depend on it, because in the NL Wild Card race they kind of do.
If you're looking for a tiebreaker, the trends point at the bullpens — and Cincinnati's is held together with tape right now. Abbott has been better at home, Gallen's velocity and fastball whiff rate are red-flag territory, and a 9.5 total at Great American on a Sunday afternoon in June is the kind of number that has scared bettors for years. Take your pick. The Reds are 1.5-run favorites on the run line with the moneyline essentially a coin flip.