The market reflects the gap. Dodgers are -226 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line, and the EV numbers tell you Pinnacle thinks both sides are slightly shaded. Public money is piling on LA — 91% of the moneyline handle is on the road team. When Ohtani pitches, that's basically the default.
The catch: the Dodgers offense is not exactly humming. Ohtani himself is in an 0-for-14 stretch at the plate, and the team has gone 6 straight games without a home run. They still took the series opener 8-3, but the power outage is real, and they're missing Mookie Betts and Tommy Edman from the everyday lineup.
- 10-Day-ILMookie Betts (SS) — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Monday that Betts (oblique) is on track to face live pitching in a simulated game Thursday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.05/05
- 10-Day-ILTommy Edman (2B) — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Monday that Edman has been backed off his rehab a bit after feeling residual soreness in his surgically repaired right ankle, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.05/04
- 15-Day-ILBrock Stewart (RP) — Stewart (shoulder) joined the Dodgers in Houston on Monday and is expected to be activated from the 15-day injured list during their series against the Astros, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.05/04
- 15-Day-ILBlake Snell (SP) — Snell (shoulder) completed four innings in a rehab outing with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Sunday, allowing two earned runs on two hits and one walk while striking out four batters.05/03
- 15-Day-ILBrusdar Graterol (RP) — Graterol (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Oklahoma City on Saturday, Triple-A Oklahoma City broadcaster Alex Freedman reports.05/02
- 15-Day-ILEdwin Diaz (RP) — Diaz said Monday that he's feeling "really good" following right elbow surgery and expressed confidence that he will be back to full strength in the second half of the season, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.04/30
- 15-Day-ILBen Casparius (RP) — Casparius said Saturday at DodgerFest, the team's fan event, that he prepared himself as a starting pitcher this offseason, Steve Webb of DodgersBeat.com reports.04/13
- 60-Day-ILEnrique Hernandez (1B) — Hernandez (elbow) will kick of a minor-league rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Tuesday, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.05/06
- 60-Day-ILLandon Knack (SP) — The Dodgers placed Knack on the 15-day injured list Monday due to an intercostal strain, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.04/29
- 60-Day-ILGavin Stone (SP) — Stone (shoulder) has resumed throwing, per MLB.com.04/04
- 60-Day-ILJake Cousins (RP) — The Dodgers transferred Cousins (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.04/02
- 60-Day-ILEvan Phillips (RP) — Phillips (elbow) threw a bullpen session to a squatting catcher March 17, per MLB.com.03/25
- 60-Day-ILBobby Miller (SP) — The Dodgers placed Miller (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Monday.03/25
- Day-To-DayCarlos Correa (SS) — Correa went 2-for-4 with an RBI single and a run scored during the Astros' 6-3 win over the Red Sox on Saturday.05/05
- Day-To-DayLucas Spence (OF) — Spence (neck) will start in left field and bat seventh in Monday's Grapefruit League game against the Nationals, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.05/05
- Day-To-DayWalker Janek (C) — The Astros have selected Janek with the 28th overall pick in the 2024 First-Year Player Draft.05/05
- 10-Day-ILYainer Diaz (C) — The Astros placed Diaz (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Tuesday, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.05/05
- 10-Day-ILTaylor Trammell (CF) — The Astros announced Monday that Trammell (groin) has begun a running progression in addition to taking part in light baseball activity, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.05/05
- 10-Day-ILJoey Loperfido (LF) — The Astros announced Monday that Loperfido (quadriceps) has started light running and light baseball activity, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.05/05
- 10-Day-ILJeremy Pena (SS) — Pena (hamstring) could begin a rehab assignment this weekend, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.05/04
- 10-Day-ILJake Meyers (CF) — The Astros announced Monday that Meyers (oblique) has started swinging a bat and reincorporating other baseball activities, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.05/04
- 15-Day-ILHunter Brown (SP) — Brown (shoulder) could throw a bullpen session as soon as this weekend, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.05/04
- 15-Day-ILTatsuya Imai (SP) — Imai (arm) will make his next rehab appearance Tuesday or Wednesday with Triple-A Sugar Land, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.05/01
- 15-Day-ILNate Pearson (RP) — Pearson (elbow) permitted one run on one hit and four walks over two innings in his first rehab start with Triple-A Sugar Land on Thursday.04/24
- 60-Day-ILHayden Wesneski (SP) — The Astros announced Monday that Wesneski (elbow) is continuing to complete regular bullpen sessions as part of his throwing progression, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.05/05
- 60-Day-ILCristian Javier (SP) — The Astros announced Monday that Javier (shoulder) will begin a throwing progression this week, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.05/05
- 60-Day-ILRonel Blanco (SP) — The Astros announced Monday that Blanco (elbow) is continuing to complete regular bullpen sessions as part of his throwing progression, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.05/05
- 60-Day-ILJosh Hader (RP) — Hader (biceps) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Sugar Land on Tuesday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.05/02
- 60-Day-ILBrandon Walter (SP) — The Astros placed Walter (elbow) on the 60-day injured list.03/25
Houston, meanwhile, is the most confusing 14-22 team in the league. They lead the American League in batting average at .269 and have hit double-digit hits in 5 straight games. The record says fourth place in the AL West; the underlying contact profile says a team that should be doing more damage. Yainer Diaz heading to the IL with an oblique doesn't help that cause tonight.
Peter Lambert has been fine — 3.52 ERA, middle-of-the-rotation steady — but "fine" against this matchup gets you a long night. The over/under sits at 8.5 with juice both ways, and given the way Ohtani has been carving and the way Houston keeps stacking singles, that line feels honest. The path for the Astros is short, loud innings before Lambert gets out of the game. The path for the Dodgers is letting Ohtani be Ohtani.
This is the second game of a 3-game set with LA already up 1-0 after the 8-3 opener. A win here closes the series early and keeps the Dodgers cruising in the NL West. A Houston win flips the narrative on a team that's been one weird stretch away from looking competent again.