Tyler Glasnow has been the version Los Angeles paid for — 3-0 with a 2.56 ERA and missing bats by the bushel. Lance McCullers Jr. is sitting on a 6.32 ERA and has been pegged by Houston media as the biggest reason the Astros are buried in the AL West. On paper this is a mismatch, and the market agrees: Dodgers -210 with a run line of -1.5.
The Astros' morning got worse before first pitch. Carlos Correa was scratched with a left ankle issue, Yainer Diaz just hit the 10-day IL with an oblique, and Jeremy Pena is still working back from a hamstring. That's the entire left side of the infield and the everyday catcher gone on the same day they have to face a guy striking out 11-plus per nine. Hunter Brown and Josh Hader are still weeks away.
- Day-To-DayTyler Glasnow SP — Glasnow was removed from Wednesday's start against the Astros due to back spasms, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
- 10-Day-ILMookie Betts SS — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Monday that Betts (oblique) is on track to face live pitching in a simulated game Thursday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
- 10-Day-ILTommy Edman 2B — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Monday that Edman has been backed off his rehab a bit after feeling residual soreness in his surgically repaired right ankle, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.
- 15-Day-ILBlake Snell SP — Snell (shoulder) completed four innings in a rehab outing with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Sunday, allowing two earned runs on two hits and one walk while striking out four batters.
- 15-Day-ILBrusdar Graterol RP — Graterol (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Oklahoma City on Saturday, Triple-A Oklahoma City broadcaster Alex Freedman reports.
- 15-Day-ILEdwin Diaz RP — Diaz said Monday that he's feeling "really good" following right elbow surgery and expressed confidence that he will be back to full strength in the second half of the season, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.
- 15-Day-ILBen Casparius RP — Casparius said Saturday at DodgerFest, the team's fan event, that he prepared himself as a starting pitcher this offseason, Steve Webb of DodgersBeat.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILEnrique Hernandez 1B — Hernandez (elbow) will kick of a minor-league rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Tuesday, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.
- Day-To-DayLance McCullers Jr. SP — McCullers (2-2) earned the win Thursday in the second game of a doubleheader with the Orioles, allowing three runs on two hits and four walks over six innings. He struck out nine.
- Day-To-DayLucas Spence OF — Spence (neck) will start in left field and bat seventh in Monday's Grapefruit League game against the Nationals, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
- Day-To-DayWalker Janek C — The Astros have selected Janek with the 28th overall pick in the 2024 First-Year Player Draft.
- 10-Day-ILCarlos Correa SS — The Astros placed Correa (ankle) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
- 10-Day-ILYainer Diaz C — The Astros placed Diaz (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Tuesday, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILTaylor Trammell CF — The Astros announced Monday that Trammell (groin) has begun a running progression in addition to taking part in light baseball activity, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
- 10-Day-ILJoey Loperfido LF — The Astros announced Monday that Loperfido (quadriceps) has started light running and light baseball activity, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
- 10-Day-ILJeremy Pena SS — Pena (hamstring) could begin a rehab assignment this weekend, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
The Dodgers aren't exactly whole either — Mookie Betts (oblique) is only now ramping toward live BP, Tommy Edman has been backed off his rehab, and the pitching IL reads like a phone book with Snell, Graterol, Phillips, Stone, and Miller on it. Doesn't matter much when Shohei and Freeman are healthy and the rotation's ace is rolling. LA has won 22 games with half its stars in street clothes.
Recent form is split. The Dodgers are 3-2 over their last 5 but coming off back-to-back losses, while Houston has actually gone 3-2 in their last 5 and is playing slightly better than their season record suggests. Don't read too much into it — small samples on a 162-game grid — but if you're squinting for a live-dog angle on the Astros' +191, this is the spot where their bats have shown a pulse.
Total sits at 9 with the under getting the heavier ticket count (56% of bets) but the over taking the bigger handle. Makes some sense: McCullers' ERA suggests crooked numbers are coming, but Glasnow's whiff rate plus a banged-up Astros lineup is a recipe for a quiet afternoon on one side of the scoreboard. Lean on the matchup, not the line.
Bottom line: this is a game the Dodgers should win, and the public knows it. The interesting question is whether McCullers can keep the Astros within striking distance long enough for their bullpen to do something, because the offense behind him is being asked to score off the wrong starter on the wrong day.