TLDR: One more win and the Dodgers are in the NLCS. One more loss and Atlanta's season ends in its own building, so Truist Park gets a Game 4 that is really an elimination game.
The Dodgers lead the NLDS 2-1 and can clinch at Truist Park behind Tyler Glasnow, with every one of their relievers rested after Yamamoto's 7 innings in Game 3. Atlanta is facing elimination with Tyler Mahle, whose 1.99 ERA since the trade looks nothing like his season line. The Braves' rotation is thin because of injuries, and their offense has scored 7 runs in 3 games, so Mahle may need a gem.
First pitch is 6:00 PM ET, and it's Tyler Glasnow (5-2, 3.53) against Tyler Mahle (7-10, 3.99). Glasnow made only 13 starts this year because of a back injury, but he finished with back-to-back double-digit strikeout games, including 11 against the Padres in his last regular-season start. Mahle's season line undersells him. He had a 5.13 ERA in San Francisco before the August trade and a 1.99 ERA over 9 starts in Atlanta after it, once he cut back on the cutter and threw more splitters.
Tyler Glasnow
(5-2)·3.53 ERA
Sep 24 vs Padres
L
6.1IP
3ER
11K
2BB
91P
10/07 Lineup
Tyler Mahle
(7-10)·3.99 ERA
Sep 24 vs Reds
ND
5.0IP
5ER
4K
2BB
91P
10/07 Lineup
Mahle has also handled this lineup before. He threw 7 scoreless innings against Los Angeles on April 22, his only look at them this season, and he gave up 1 run over 7 in the Wild Card round against Philadelphia. He's the reason Walt Weiss can even have this conversation, because Atlanta's rotation is mostly on the injured list. Martin Perez and Bryce Elder are both ruled out for the series, and Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach were done months ago. The Dodgers are road favorites, which tells you how much the market trusts Glasnow's strikeouts over Mahle's 2 good months.
The bullpens matter more than usual here. Yoshinobu Yamamoto struck out 10 over 7 innings in Game 3, so Dave Roberts only needed Tanner Scott and Edwin Díaz to finish it. That leaves all 8 Dodgers relievers available tonight. If Glasnow gives them 5 good innings, Los Angeles can play matchups the rest of the way. Atlanta won Game 2 3-2 with a bullpen game, so its relievers have already shown they can carry a playoff game against this lineup.
The offense is the real problem for Atlanta. The Braves scored 1 run in Game 3, and that came after loading the bases in the 5th. Kiké Hernández and Freddie Freeman each homered off Chris Sale in the 4th, and that was enough. Atlanta has scored 3, 3 and 1 in this series. The Braves don't need a slugfest, but they can't go another night leaving runners stranded and hope Mahle throws a shutout. Austin Riley said Mahle will be "up for the moment." The hitters behind him have to be too.
The weather won't be a factor: 80 degrees, clear skies and a 3 mph breeze. This one comes down to whether Glasnow's swing-and-miss stuff holds up over a playoff start after a season of stops and starts, and whether Mahle's run in Atlanta is real enough to send the series back to Los Angeles for a Game 5. If Glasnow pitches deep, the Dodgers probably move on.
NLDS Game 4: Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves — Braves Hand the Ball to Mahle With the Season on the Line | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush
