Yamamoto (3-4, 3.32) is the kind of name you want on the mound for a series finale, but the underlying form is wobblier than the ERA suggests. He's been tagged for a 5.18 ERA over his last 4 starts dating back to April 21, including a career-worst 3 homers allowed to the Giants. The strikeouts are still there. The contact when it comes is getting punished.
Milwaukee counters with Brandon Sproat, the 25-year-old righty they got back from the Mets in the Freddy Peralta trade. His 5.75 ERA tells you most of what you need to know — a grand slam to Colson Montgomery in his debut set the tone, and he's been working back from there. Sproat against a Dodgers lineup currently leaning extra hard on Mookie, Ohtani and Freeman is a tall ask, especially with Max Muncy banged up at the hot corner.
- Day-To-DayMax Muncy (3B) — Muncy (wrist) isn't in the lineup for Saturday's game against the Brewers.05/23
- 15-Day-ILBrock Stewart (RP) — Stewart (foot) has started a throwing program, per MLB.com.05/22
- 15-Day-ILBlake Snell (SP) — Snell (elbow) will undergo the same "nano scope" procedure Tuesday that Tarik Skubal had earlier in May, Alden Gonzalez of ESPN.com reports.05/19
- 15-Day-ILTyler Glasnow (SP) — Glasnow (back) has not yet resumed throwing off a mound after his back flared up, Sonja Chen of MLB.com reports.05/19
- 15-Day-ILJack Dreyer (RP) — The Dodgers placed Dreyer on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to left shoulder discomfort.05/17
- 60-Day-ILEnrique Hernandez (1B) — Manager Dave Roberts said Saturday that Hernandez (elbow) will be activated from the injured list Monday, David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reports.05/23
- 60-Day-ILTommy Edman (2B) — Edman (ankle) is expected to begin a rehab assignment within the next few weeks, Katie Woo of The Athletic reports.05/19
- 60-Day-ILBrusdar Graterol (RP) — Graterol (shoulder/back) is considering surgery, Katie Woo of The Athletic reports.05/19
- 60-Day-ILBen Casparius (RP) — Casparius (shoulder) was moved to the 60-day injured list Monday.05/19
- 60-Day-ILEdwin Diaz (RP) — no05/10
- 60-Day-ILLandon Knack (SP) — The Dodgers transferred Knack (chest) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILEvan Phillips (RP) — Phillips (elbow) threw a bullpen session to a squatting catcher March 17, per MLB.com.05/08
- 60-Day-ILGavin Stone (SP) — Stone (shoulder) has resumed throwing, per MLB.com.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJake Cousins (RP) — The Dodgers transferred Cousins (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILBobby Miller (SP) — The Dodgers placed Miller (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Monday.05/08
- Day-To-DayGarrett Mitchell (CF) — Mitchell (back) isn't in the lineup for Saturday's game against the Dodgers.05/23
- Day-To-DayGerson Garabito (RP) — Garabito will be out for four months after undergoing surgery to address a broken bone in his foot, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILBrandon Lockridge (LF) — Lockridge is expected to be sidelined until mid-to-late June after an MRI on his right knee showed a bone bruise, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.05/12
- 15-Day-ILQuinn Priester (SP) — Priester (shoulder) was charged with five earned runs on five hits and three walks over three innings in a rehab start with Triple-A Nashville on Thursday.05/22
- 15-Day-ILBrandon Woodruff (SP) — Woodruff (shoulder) is tentatively scheduled to face hitters Friday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.05/18
- 15-Day-ILJared Koenig (RP) — Koenig (elbow) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.05/12
- 15-Day-ILAngel Zerpa (RP) — Zerpa will undergo UCL reconstruction on his left elbow next week, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILAkil Baddoo (LF) — Baddoo (quadriceps) will begin a rehab assignment Friday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.05/12
- 60-Day-ILRob Zastryzny (RP) — Zastryzny (shoulder/ribs) will resume a rehab assignment with Triple-A Nashville on Wednesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.05/12
The injury column is doing a lot of heavy lifting in how this game gets bet. The Dodgers have basically half a rotation on the shelf — Snell, Glasnow, Stone, Miller, Knack — plus a bullpen that's lost Phillips, Graterol, Dreyer and Brock Stewart. The one piece of good news: Kiké is back from the 60-day and immediately doing Kiké things. Milwaukee is missing Garrett Mitchell again, Woodruff is still building back up, and Sproat is essentially a depth start because Priester got knocked around in his rehab outing.
The market has LA at -168, which is a heavy number for a road favorite handing the ball to a guy with a 5.18 ERA over his last month. That tells you what oddsmakers think of Sproat right now. Public money on the moneyline is essentially split — 63% of the handle on the Dodgers but the bet count is closer to even — and the total is the rare case where DraftKings is hanging 8.5 while Pinnacle stays on 8. If you trust Yamamoto to right himself against a depleted Brewers lineup, the favorite makes sense. If you've watched the last 4 weeks, the price feels rich.
Pick your poison. Dodgers have the names, the lineup and the bullpen edges that haven't been blown up yet. Brewers have the home park, the recent track record against LA, and a clear pitching-depth crisis on the other side. First pitch 1:10 local.