Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers

Sun Oct 117:00 PM CTFox,FS1Milwaukee, WI
By JR·2 min read

TLDR: Last October the Dodgers swept Milwaukee out of the NLCS. Now the 103-win Brewers get the rematch, and this time they have home field for Sunday's Game 1 at American Family Field.

MON 10/12, 7:00 PMFoxFS1
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The 103-59 Brewers host the 100-62 Dodgers in an NLCS rematch of last year's Los Angeles sweep. Both clubs finished their Division Series in 4 games on the strength of their pitching. Milwaukee reportedly has Jacob Misiorowski lined up for Game 1 with strong numbers against LA, the Dodgers haven't named a starter, and their bullpen is missing a long list of arms. The board treats the opener as a coin flip with a low total.

Los Angeles Dodgers
  • Held Atlanta to 8 runs over 4 NLDS games
  • Closed out the Braves with 2 road wins
  • Treinen, Graterol, Casparius among injured bullpen arms
  • Rojas's back thinned the bench late in the NLDS
  • Game 1 starter still unannounced
Milwaukee Brewers
  • Reported starter Misiorowski: 1.59 ERA, 27 K in 17 IP vs LA
  • Won 3 of 4 one- or two-run games vs San Diego
  • Hold home field for the opener
  • Scored only 13 runs across 4 NLDS games
  • Woodruff and Priester out, rotation depth thin

Neither club's Game 1 starter is on the official card yet. Milwaukee has reportedly given the ball to Jacob Misiorowski, and his history against this lineup explains why: 17 career innings against Los Angeles, a 1.59 ERA, 27 strikeouts and 3 walks, counting 2 regular-season starts and a relief outing in last year's NLCS. The Dodgers haven't said who goes for them, so for now one side of this matchup is a name and the other is a blank.

The bigger roster question in Los Angeles is the bullpen, not the rotation. Blake Treinen is on the 15-day IL with a shoulder issue, though Andrew Friedman hasn't ruled him out for the postseason. Brusdar Graterol, Ben Casparius, Jake Cousins and Will Klein are all on the 60-day. Miguel Rojas was unavailable off the bench for the NLDS clincher because of his back, and Dave Roberts called him "not great." That leaves a shorter bench and fewer trusted late-inning arms than usual. The board has this game priced almost dead even anyway.

Both teams closed out their Division Series on Wednesday and come in with the same rest. The Dodgers took 2 straight in Atlanta to finish off the Braves in 4. Milwaukee also finished in 4, beating the Padres 3-1 in San Diego, and that win ended a road postseason losing streak that had run 12 games, all the way back to 2018. A franchise that couldn't win a playoff game away from home for 8 years now gets to start the pennant round in its own building.

10/07W@Braves4-1
10/06W@Braves3-1
10/04LvsBraves2-3
10/03WvsBraves5-3
09/27W@Giants5-1
10/07W@Padres3-1
10/06L@Padres3-4
10/04WvsPadres4-3
10/03WvsPadres3-2
09/27WvsCardinals6-4

Milwaukee's NLDS was tight from start to finish. Every game against San Diego was decided by 1 or 2 runs, and the Brewers scored just 13 runs across the 4 games. The clincher showed how they win: Garrett Mitchell tripled and scored the go-ahead run in the 5th, then ran down Manny Machado's drive at the wall in the 8th. The Brewers win with defense, pitching and enough timely hits to get by, not by slugging.

The Dodgers' pitching was just as stingy against Atlanta, allowing 8 runs in 4 games, and the Braves never scored more than 3 in any of them. So this looks like 2 pitching staffs at the top of their game and 2 lineups that have had to scrape for runs. Game 1 is Sunday at 7:00 PM CT on FOX. Milwaukee has its likely starter lined up and has been playing 1-run games for a week. Los Angeles has the scar tissue of last year's sweep on its side and a bullpen that's thinner than it looks on paper.

NLCS Game 1: Brewers And Dodgers Run It Back With A Pennant At Stake | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush