Los Angeles at 29-18, San Diego at 28-18, half a game between them at Petco. This is the matchup the West has been waiting on, and it kicks off with Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Michael King in the kind of opener that sets the temperature for the whole series.
Yamamoto walks in off the worst start of his MLB career — 3 home runs allowed to the Giants on May 12, all solo shots, all with two outs, the first time he's ever coughed up 3 in a big-league outing. He still went 6 innings with 8 strikeouts, which is the bit Dodgers fans should hold onto: he's now gone at least 6 innings in 7 of his 8 starts. The stuff isn't the issue. The mistakes-in-the-zone count is.
King's been the steadier arm here on paper, sitting at a 2.63 ERA with 50 punchouts. He's also been openly self-critical — told MLB.com flatly he hasn't been good this year — and the gripe is that he still hasn't recorded an out past the 6th inning in any start. Against a Dodgers lineup that grinds at-bats for a living, pitch efficiency matters. So does what happens once the ball gets handed off.
- 15-Day-ILJack Dreyer RP — The Dodgers placed Dreyer on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to left shoulder discomfort.
- 15-Day-ILBlake Snell SP — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Saturday that Snell will undergo surgery Tuesday to remove loose bodies in his left elbow, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
- 15-Day-ILTyler Glasnow SP — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Thursday that Glasnow (back) won't be ready to come off the injured list when first eligible, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
- 15-Day-ILBen Casparius RP — Casparius (shoulder) has been throwing at the Dodgers' complex in Arizona, per MLB.com.
- 15-Day-ILBrock Stewart RP — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters Saturday that he expects Stewart (foot) will be on the 15-day injured list for approximately three weeks, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
- 60-Day-ILBrusdar Graterol RP — The Dodgers transferred Graterol (shoulder/back) to the 60-day injured list Sunday.
- 60-Day-ILEdwin Diaz RP — no
- 60-Day-ILTommy Edman 2B — The Dodgers transferred Edman (ankle) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
- Day-To-DayBlake Hunt C — Hunt is dealing with an oblique injury and has been shut down from activity, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
- 7-day ilJake Cronenworth 2B — The Padres placed Cronenworth on the 7-day concussion injured list Tuesday, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILLuis Campusano C — Campusano (toe) has begun taking part in baseball activities, though he's not yet pain-free and isn't close to a return, per MLB.com.
- 15-Day-ILGerman Marquez SP — Marquez (forearm) has begun a throwing program, per MLB.com.
- 15-Day-ILMatt Waldron SP — The Padres placed Waldron on the 15-day injured list Friday due to a right brachialis muscle injury.
- 15-Day-ILNick Pivetta SP — Padres manager Craig Stammen told reporters Wednesday that Pivetta was diagnosed with a right flexor strain, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
- 60-Day-ILJhony Brito RP — Brito (forearm) had his minor-league rehab statement moved from the Arizona Complex League to Double-A San Antonio on Sunday, per MLB.com.
- 60-Day-ILJoe Musgrove SP — The Padres transferred Musgrove (elbow) to the 60-day injured list on Thursday.
That's where this gets interesting. The Dodgers IL is genuinely brutal — Snell having loose bodies cleaned out of his elbow Tuesday, Glasnow not coming back when first eligible, and the bullpen losing Graterol, Dreyer, Phillips, Stewart and Casparius. The Padres aren't whole either: Darvish, Musgrove, Pivetta, Waldron and Marquez are all unavailable, and they're playing without Cronenworth and Campusano. Two contenders held together with tape.
Pinnacle has the Dodgers at -139 on the moneyline, -1 on the runline at -108, with the total parked at 7.5. That's a market that respects LA's streak but isn't fully bought in on Yamamoto after the Giants beating. If you trust King to navigate this Dodgers order one more time through and the bullpen to do its job, the Padres at +128 with the home crowd makes a real case. If you trust Yamamoto to wash off one bad night, you lay the number.
Best guess: it comes down to whichever bullpen blinks first, because neither starter has been finishing games lately. The Dodgers are the hotter team, the Padres are the healthier rotation, and the under at 7.5 is doing more work than it looks like on the page.