Barstool Bush
Predictions

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres

By Bush StaffUpdated 55d ago·2 min read
Los Angeles DodgersLAD(53-30)
San Diego PadresSD(43-38)
4—2
FINAL
123456789RHE
LAD
001030000450
SD
000101000260

King (5-6, 3.33 ERA) gets the better end of this draw. He's coming off his cleanest start in weeks against the Braves — 7 innings, 0 earned runs, 5 strikeouts, 0 walks on 93 pitches — the kind of outing that quieted some real questions about his season. Sheehan (3-5, 5.32 ERA) starts the other way with a June ERA of 7.31 and a recent résumé that includes a 3.1-inning, 8-hit, 6-run disaster against Baltimore. That's the matchup.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Dodgers(53-30)
WLWWW
4
Padres(43-38)
LWWWW
2
Best BetPadres +117
Pregame

King at plus money is the buy here. The Dodgers are asking you to pay a premium to back a starter with a June ERA north of 7, and that's a tough number when King just posted 7 shutout innings in his last start. The price implies San Diego is a slight underdog in this specific matchup — they shouldn't be.

Sheehan isn't in the Dodgers' rotation by choice at this point — he's there because Glasnow, Snell, Miller, Stone, and Knack are all on the 60-day IL. The entire starting staff is essentially a medical wing, and yet Los Angeles sits at 53-30, which is a credit to their depth and their lineup. Sheehan needs to give them 5 competent innings to keep LA in this one. Given what he's done this month, that's a genuine question, not a formality.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Emmet Sheehan
(4-6)·4.91 ERA
Jun 21 vs Orioles
L
3.1IP
6ER
4K
3BB
82P
06/28 Lineup
San Diego Padres
Michael King
(6-7)·3.41 ERA
Jun 22 vs Braves
W
7.0IP
0ER
5K
0BB
93P
06/28 Lineup
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
(53-30)
Jun 28W@ Padres15-3
Jun 27L@ Padres1-7
Jun 24W@ Twins4-3
Jun 23W@ Twins12-3
Jun 22W@ Twins2-1
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
(43-38)
Jun 28Lvs Dodgers3-15
Jun 27Wvs Dodgers7-1
Jun 25Wvs Braves5-2
Jun 24Wvs Braves7-6
Jun 23Wvs Braves1-0

San Diego enters this finale riding a stretch where they looked like an actual contender again — swept the Braves before this series, then won Game 1 over the Dodgers 7-1 on Friday. Saturday's 15-3 beatdown was an outlier they'd like to forget quickly, and the Padres at home with King on the hill in a divisional finale is exactly the kind of spot they want. At 43-38, they need these games to stay relevant in the NL West. For the Dodgers, Will Smith (neck) is not traveling with the team this road trip, and Teoscar Hernandez is expected back Monday — meaning this lineup goes one more game without either of them.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
(16)
  • Day-To-DayChris Campos (SP)
  • 10-Day-ILTeoscar Hernandez (LF) — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Saturday that Hernandez (hamstring) will be activated off the injured list ahead of Monday's series opener versus the Athletics, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.06/27
  • 10-Day-ILWill Smith (C) — Manager Dave Roberts said Sunday that Smith (neck) won't travel with the Dodgers for their upcoming road trip, which begins Monday and runs through July 1, Sonja Chen of MLB.com reports.06/21
  • 10-Day-ILEnrique Hernandez (1B) — Hernandez (oblique) has started some baseball activities but remains in the early stages of his rehab, per MLB.com.06/19
  • 15-Day-ILBlake Treinen (RP) — Treinen does not have any structural damage in his injured right elbow, per MLB.com.06/27
  • OutKendall George (CF) — George (knee) has been rehabbing at the Dodgers' spring training facility in Arizona and is on track to return after the All-Star break, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.06/22
  • 60-Day-ILBlake Snell (SP) — Snell (elbow) threw a 15-pitch bullpen session Friday, and manager Dave Roberts said it went well, David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reports.06/27
  • 60-Day-ILLandon Knack (SP) — Knack (chest) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Thursday, yielding two runs on five hits and one walk over 1.1 innings.06/25
  • 60-Day-ILEdwin Diaz (RP) — Diaz (elbow) is throwing in the bullpen Friday at Dodger Stadium, reports Jack Harris of the California Post.06/19
  • 60-Day-ILTyler Glasnow (SP) — Glasnow (back) has yet to resume throwing, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.06/16
  • 60-Day-ILEvan Phillips (RP) — Phillips (elbow) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Thursday, yielding one hit and one walk over two-thirds of a scoreless frame.06/05
  • 60-Day-ILBobby Miller (SP) — Miller (shoulder/back) will resume throwing off the mound this week, Cody Snavely of DodgersBeat.com reports.06/03
  • 60-Day-ILGavin Stone (SP) — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts revealed Tuesday that Stone has been unable to ramp up his throwing without feeling soreness in his surgically repaired right shoulder, Cody Snavely of DodgersBeat.com reports.06/03
  • 60-Day-ILBrusdar Graterol (RP) — Graterol (shoulder) underwent surgery recently for a back injury he suffered while on a rehab assignment, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.06/01
  • 60-Day-ILBen Casparius (RP) — Casparius (shoulder) was moved to the 60-day injured list Monday.05/19
  • 60-Day-ILJake Cousins (RP) — The Dodgers transferred Cousins (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.05/08
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
(12)
  • Day-To-DayTy France (1B) — France, who was hit in the wrist by a pitch against the Dodgers on Friday, had X-rays return negative, but he's out of Saturday's lineup, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports.06/27
  • 7-Day ILJake Cronenworth (2B) — Cronenworth (concussion) went 2-for-4 with a two-run home run and a double Friday in a rehab appearance with Triple-A El Paso.06/27
  • 10-Day-ILLuis Campusano (C) — Campusano (toe) continues to rehab in Arizona but hasn't yet been scheduled for a minor-league rehab assignment, per MLB.com.06/14
  • 15-Day-ILLucas Giolito (SP) — Giolito was placed on the 15-day injured list Tuesday, retroactive to Monday, with right elbow inflammation.06/23
  • 15-Day-ILGerman Marquez (SP) — Marquez (forearm) struck out three and allowed three earned runs on five hits and three walks across five innings in a rehab start Wednesday with Triple-A El Paso.06/22
  • 15-Day-ILMatt Waldron (SP) — Waldron (forearm) made his first rehab appearance with Triple-A El Paso on Sunday, tossing 2.1 scoreless innings.06/15
  • 15-Day-ILJeremiah Estrada (RP) — Estrada (2-2) picked up the loss after giving up the eventual game-winning run in a 3-2 loss to Philadelphia on Tuesday.06/05
  • OutYu Darvish (SP) — Darvish (elbow) revealed Tuesday in a social media post that he has resumed playing catch.05/12
  • 60-Day-ILNick Pivetta (SP) — Pivetta (forearm) has advanced to playing long toss and could soon begin throwing off a mound, per MLB.com.06/28
  • 60-Day-ILJoe Musgrove (SP) — Musgrove (elbow) started playing catch in late May, per MLB.com.06/08
  • 60-Day-ILRamon Laureano (LF) — Laureano underwent surgery Friday to repair his torn right labrum, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.06/05
  • 60-Day-ILBryan Hoeing (RP) — The Padres transferred Hoeing (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.05/08

San Diego's own rotation is full of names on injured lists — Pivetta, Giolito, Waldron, Musgrove, Darvish — but none of that enters the equation Sunday when King takes the ball in good form. The Dodgers have shown all year that their offense can manufacture wins with almost any starter; the question is whether Sheehan is the rare version they can survive or the June version they can't. If he gets into trouble early, the Padres can put this game to bed before King ever has to be brilliant.

Sources

MLBLos Angeles DodgersSan Diego PadresPolymarketKalshiEmmet SheehanMichael King