San Francisco shows up at 18-27, dropped 3 of their last 5, and just got swept out of LA. The Athletics — the same Athletics, relocated to West Sacramento and pretending Vegas isn't coming — are 23-21 and a win away from sitting 2 games above .500 with a grip on first place. The narrative writes itself.
The pitching matchup is the fun part. Trevor McDonald has barely been in the big leagues and already looks like he doesn't belong in the minors: a 2.92 ERA, and through his first handful of starts the rookie piled up 21 strikeouts against 1 walk. The Giants optioned him at one point just because the rotation was full, not because he earned it. Luis Severino is the opposite story — 2-4 with a 4.07, but he's quietly stabilized, including a 7-inning, 8-K win over the Royals and a steady 5.1 against the Orioles on May 10.
Injury board matters more than usual here. The A's are without Jacob Wilson (shoulder sprain), Max Muncy (hand, no timetable), and Denzel Clarke up the middle — that's a real chunk of the lineup and infield defense. The Giants are missing Logan Webb from the rotation, though he's reportedly tracking for a minimum stay, and the bullpen is held together with tape after losing Birdsong to UCL surgery and stacking Rodriguez, Wick, Butto, and Foley on the 60-day.
- Day-To-DayHeliot Ramos LF — Ramos went 2-for-6 with a solo home run, a double, a second RBI and three total runs scored in Sunday's 7-6 extra-innings win over the Pirates.
- 15-Day-ILLogan Webb SP — Webb (knee) is on track to return to action after a minimum-length stay on the 15-day injured list, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
- 15-Day-ILErik Miller RP — Miller (back) is expected to be activated from the 15-day injured list Saturday, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
- 60-Day-ILJason Foley RP — Foley (shoulder) earned a hold in Triple-A Sacramento's 6-5 loss to Round Rock on Wednesday, allowing one hit in a scoreless inning.
- 60-Day-ILReiver Sanmartin RP — Sanmartin (hip) struck out one in a scoreless inning during Wednesday's 29-2 victory over the ACL Dodgers in the rookie-level Arizona Complex League.
- 60-Day-ILJared Oliva CF — The Giants transferred Oliva (wrist) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
- 60-Day-ILRowan Wick RP — The Giants placed Wick (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
- 60-Day-ILHayden Birdsong RP — Birdsong underwent successful UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
- 10-Day-ILMax Muncy 3B — Muncy (hand) is still being held out of all baseball activities and has no timetable for a return, MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILDenzel Clarke CF — Clarke (foot) is continuing baseball activities and has progressed to on-field batting practice and outfield drills, MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILJacob Wilson SS — Wilson was diagnosed with a left shoulder sprain after exiting Sunday's 2-1 loss to the Orioles, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILBrooks Kriske RP — Kriske was removed from Tuesday's game against the Cardinals with right shoulder soreness, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILGunnar Hoglund SP — Hoglund (knee/back) was given a cortisone injection in his left hip May 1, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
The market sees it the way the eye test does. The A's are -129 favorites at Pinnacle with a fair win probability of 55%, and the DK book is taking 75% of both bets and handle on the home side. The spread is where it gets interesting — there's a half-run gap between Pinnacle (1.0) and DK (1.5), and the EV on both sides is mildly negative, meaning the number is sharp and the public is paying retail.
If you're a Giants fan looking for a reason: McDonald is the kind of arm that can steal a game against anyone, and the A's lineup is short two regulars. If you're an A's fan: you're at home, you have the better record, the better bullpen depth, and you're facing a Giants offense that has scored the fewest runs in the league. First pitch 8:40 PM ET from Sutter Health Park.