TLDR: San Diego's wild-card push just hit a speed bump against the team with the worst record in baseball, and now the Padres need to answer back before the trade deadline closes in.
−Buehler allowed 16 earned runs over his last two starts
−Rotation thin behind injured Musgrove, Pivetta and Giolito
−Dropped the series opener to the last-place Giants
First pitch at Petco Park is set for 5:40 PM PT, and the two starters are trending in opposite directions. Mahle has been the best version of himself since returning from a hamstring strain in late June, running a 3.06 ERA over his last six starts after opening the season in shambles. Buehler, meanwhile, is sliding the other way — a promising June rebound has given way to a brutal July that included a start where he gave up 9 earned runs in just 4 innings against the Cubs.
Tyler Mahle
(4-9)·4.64 ERA
Jul 27 vs Brewers
W
6.0IP
0ER
3K
2BB
88P
08/01 Lineup
Walker Buehler
(7-5)·4.88 ERA
Jul 26 @ Marlins
ND
5.1IP
2ER
7K
2BB
92P
08/01 Lineup
San Diego's offense has been doing enough lately to cover for Buehler's rough patches, with Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. carrying a lineup that was among the league's worst in the first half. San Francisco gets a lift of its own this weekend, with Matt Chapman targeted to return from his abdominal strain to give Vitello's lineup a little more juice against a Padres pitching staff already missing Joe Musgrove, Nick Pivetta and Lucas Giolito. It's a big enough gap that the market has San Diego as a clear favorite heading into Sunday.
That contrast in stakes — a team clawing for a wild-card spot against one with little left to play for — is exactly why this series has felt lopsided even when the results haven't cooperated. The Giants stole the opener 4-1 before San Diego answered with a 7-0 blowout Saturday, and Sunday's finale closes out San Diego's last series before Monday's trade deadline.
Vitello's first year in the majors hasn't gone smoothly, and the losing has invited plenty of outside criticism of the rookie skipper. But there's a stubborn streak to this Giants team — they've split results with the Padres so far this series and clearly aren't just rolling over, even with an outfield picture as thin as it currently is.
For San Diego, the math is simpler: win the finale, keep pace in the wild-card race, and head into the deadline with momentum instead of a hangover. Sunday is as much about setting a tone for August as it is about the final score.
Giants 5, Padres 6: Final Score & Odds Recap — Padres Chase Wild-Card Momentum, Giants Play Spoiler at Petco
