Painter's last outing was the kind of line you try not to look at twice — 8 earned runs, 3 home runs in a 12-1 loss to the A's. He's now surrendered a homer in 4 straight starts and walked more hitters than he's struck out in 3 of his last 4. Don Mattingly is publicly unbothered and keeps preaching patience, but the 5.77 ERA is doing a lot of yelling on its own.
Messick isn't bulletproof either. Stephen Vogt called his May 19 start against Detroit his worst command of the year, and he still gutted out 5 innings in a Cleveland win. That's the gap right now: Messick's bad day is a quality start, Painter's bad day is a bullpen game by the 4th.
The market sees it the same way the eye test does. Philly is the home favorite, the public is hammering the Phillies moneyline at 80% of bets, and sharper Pinnacle has Cleveland as the true favorite at -125. When the public and the sharp money disagree this loudly on a noon start, the pitching matchup is usually why.
- Day-To-DayCarlos Hernandez (RP) — Hernandez (shoulder) began his rehab assignment with Triple-A Omaha on Friday.05/08
- 10-Day-ILGabriel Arias (SS) — no05/24
- Day-To-DayKeaton Anthony (1B) — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayRene Pinto (C) — Pinto (undisclosed) began a rehab assignment Monday, Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayDaniel Robert (RP) — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayAndrew Bechtold (3B) — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.05/08
- Day-To-DayMark Kolozsvary (C) — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILKyle Backhus (RP) — Backhus (elbow) played catch Wednesday, MLB.com reports.05/14
- 15-Day-ILZach Pop (RP) — Pop (calf) began a rehab assignment Saturday, throwing a clean inning for Triple-A Lehigh Valley.05/11
- suspensionJohan Rojas (CF) — Rojas (shoulder) is starting in center field and batting leadoff in Thursday's Grapefruit League contest against Atlanta, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILMax Lazar (RP) — Lazar (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Jersey Shore on Thursday.05/08
Cleveland is mostly whole outside of Gabriel Arias on the 10-day IL. The Phillies bullpen is the bigger concern long term, with Backhus and Pop both on the 15-day and Daniel Robert's situation still a serious one after the cardiac incident earlier this month. None of it changes today's script much — today's script is Painter vs. Messick, and that's a hard one to spin in Philadelphia's favor.