Who is favored in Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays?

Tampa Bay Rays are favored on the moneyline.

Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays

·Mon Oct 19·8:08 PM ET·TBS,truTV·St. Petersburg, FL

By JR·2 min read

Guardians(85-77)

Rays(98-64)

Monday 10/198:08 PM

TLDR: Tampa Bay is 1 win from the World Series and gets to try for it at home. Cleveland has to win twice, against a team that keeps holding it to 3 runs or fewer.

TUE 10/20, TUE OCT 20, 8:08 PM TBS

Guardians

(85-77)

LLWLW

Rays

(98-64)

WWLWL

Tampa Bay leads the ALCS 3-2 and plays Game 6 at home with a chance to clinch the pennant. Cleveland is planning a bullpen game after its relievers covered most of Game 5, and its offense hasn't scored more than 3 runs since Game 1. The game comes down to whether that bullpen can last 9 innings and whether the Guardians' bats finally show up.

Cleveland Guardians

Bullpen held Tampa scoreless after the 3rd in Game 5
Already won once at Tropicana Field this series, 7-3
Hasn't scored more than 3 since Game 1
Bullpen game with Gavin Williams unavailable
Holderman and Walters out of the relief corps

Tampa Bay Rays

Rasmussen's 7-inning Game 5 kept the rotation rested
55-26 at home in the regular season
Held Cleveland to 3 or fewer 4 straight games
McClanahan out for the postseason, thin rotation
Scored 3 or fewer in 4 of 5 series games

Neither starter is confirmed on our card yet, but the two clubs are heading into Game 6 in very different shape on the mound. MLB.com reports the Rays plan to start Freddy Peralta. Cleveland is planning a bullpen game, and MLB.com says Slade Cecconi could open it. Stephen Vogt has already said Gavin Williams, his best starter this postseason, is "not an option" on short rest. So the Guardians will try to keep their season alive by stringing together relievers, at 8:08 PM ET in St. Petersburg.

That bullpen plan gets harder because of how Game 5 went. Parker Messick was gone after 2 innings, so Cleveland's relievers covered the rest of the game. They pitched well and held Tampa Bay scoreless after the third, but Vogt also brought in closer Cade Smith in the eighth while trailing by 2. Cleveland is also without relievers Colin Holderman (wrist surgery) and Andrew Walters (UCL repair). The Rays are favorites at home, which makes sense given how the series has gone.

Cleveland's real problem is scoring. The Guardians put up 7 runs in Game 1 and haven't scored more than 3 in any game since. MLB.com notes they've scored 4 runs total across Games 4 and 5, and their only run on Sunday came on a groundout. Since Petey Halpin's 2-run homer in Game 3, the lineup has gone quiet, and Rhys Hoskins is still working back from a back injury instead of being in the lineup.

Tampa Bay hasn't been piling up runs either. The Rays scored 3, 3, 2, 7 and 3 in the 5 games. What changed is their starting pitching: Drew Rasmussen allowed 1 run over 7 innings in Game 5, the kind of start Cleveland now has to answer without a real starter. Back home, the Rays went 55-26 at Tropicana Field in the regular season and are 3-1 there this postseason, per MLB.com. Yandy Díaz has already said publicly that the Rays will win Game 6.

Tampa Bay has its own injuries to work around. Shane McClanahan (forearm) is out for the rest of the postseason, and Ryan Pepiot hasn't pitched since hip surgery in May, so the Rays' starting depth has been thin all October. They've gotten by because the starters they do have keep going deep. Vogt's line after Game 5 was that his team's back has been against the wall for a long time and "this is when this team thrives." Cleveland needs to score 4 runs to make that true, and it hasn't done that since Game 1.

Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays

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