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Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals

By JR·2 min read
Cleveland GuardiansCLE(83-76)
Kansas City RoyalsKC(68-91)
AT
6:40 PM CT

TLDR: Cleveland arrives in Kansas City having won games 1-0, 3-2 and 1-0 in its last 5, which tells you how this club is getting it done in late September. The Royals are 68-91, and their pitching staff is mostly on the injured list.

FRI SEP 25, 6:40 PM
Spread
WIN
Total
Guardians
(83-76)
WLWWW
Royals
(68-91)
LWLLL

Cleveland, 83-76 and in the wild-card race, sends a red-hot Gavin Williams against Noah Cameron and a 68-91 Kansas City team whose pitching staff has been gutted by injuries. The Guardians have been winning with pitching while scoring very little, so the game probably turns on whether their bats can get to Cameron before the Royals have to go to a thin bullpen.

Guardians
  • Williams: 7 scoreless innings, 9 strikeouts last start
  • Staff allowed 3 runs over the last 4 games
  • 4-1 in the last 5, playing for a wild card
  • Scored 5 runs in 3 games at Boston
  • Hoskins still out, just started swinging
  • Colin Holderman on the IL with a wrist problem
Royals
  • Cameron threw 6 scoreless against Arizona this month
  • Won 5-4 over the White Sox this week
  • White Sox scored 14 and 9 this week
  • Cruz and Kimbrel away from the bullpen
  • Cameron allowed 4 earned runs in his last start

Gavin Williams (14-8, 3.63) takes the ball at Kauffman Stadium at 6:40 PM CT, and he's pitching as well as he has all year. His last start was 7 scoreless innings against the Athletics with 9 strikeouts on 89 pitches. On September 1 he struck out a career-high 13 Blue Jays over 7 innings and allowed only 2 singles, his 10th double-digit strikeout game of the season. Noah Cameron (9-8, 3.92) goes for Kansas City. His September has been mixed: 6 scoreless innings with 7 strikeouts against Arizona, then 4 earned runs over 6 innings in Pittsburgh his last time out.

Gavin Williams
Gavin Williams
(14-8)·3.63 ERA
Sep 20 vs Athletics
W
7.0IP
0ER
9K
1BB
89P
09/25 Lineup
Noah Cameron
Noah Cameron
(9-8)·3.92 ERA
Sep 19 @ Pirates
ND
6.0IP
4ER
6K
2BB
94P
09/25 Lineup

Cleveland's pitching is carrying the team right now. The Guardians have allowed 3 runs total across their last 4 games, and they needed that, because they scored 5 runs in 3 games at Fenway. Rhys Hoskins is still on the IL. He has only just started a swing progression, so there's no help coming from him. Both of the Guardians' last 2 wins were 1-0. That's a lineup relying on its pitchers. Cleveland is the road favorite tonight, which makes sense given the staffs involved.

The other dugout is in rough shape. Kansas City's rotation is without Cole Ragans, Stephen Kolek, Luinder Avila and Alec Marsh. The bullpen is without Carlos Estevez, Nick Mears, James McArthur, Seabold and Beck Way. Craig Kimbrel went on the bereavement list after taking a loss in which he allowed 5 runs in 1 inning. Steven Cruz went on paternity leave Thursday. The result: the White Sox scored 14 and 9 in 2 of the 3 games at Kauffman this week.

Cleveland Guardians
(2)
  • 10-Day-ILRhys Hoskins (1B) — Hoskins (back) has begun a swing progression program.09/12
  • 15-Day-ILColin Holderman (RP) — Holderman received an injection in his right wrist Saturday.09/23
Kansas City Royals
(12)
  • PaternityNewSteven Cruz (RP) — The Royals placed Cruz on the paternity leave list Thursday.09/24
  • bereavementCraig Kimbrel (RP) — Kimbrel (1-4) took the loss Monday against the Diamondbacks, allowing five runs (four earned) on five hits and a walk while striking out one over one inning.09/19
  • 15-Day-ILBeck Way (RP) — Way (back/shoulder) has been shut down for the remainder of the season, per MLB.com.09/02
  • 60-Day-ILConnor Seabold (RP) — Seabold (lat) struck out one across a perfect inning with Triple-A Omaha on Thursday.09/18
  • 60-Day-ILJames McArthur (RP) — McArthur (elbow) allowed three runs on three hits and no walks with one strikeout across two-thirds of an inning in a rehab appearance with Double-A Northwest Arkansas on Wednesday.09/10
  • 60-Day-ILCarlos Estevez (RP) — Estevez will undergo season-ending surgery on his right shoulder next week.09/01
  • 60-Day-ILNick Mears (RP) — Mears (shoulder) was diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome Saturday and will undergo season-ending surgery.08/26
  • 60-Day-ILLuinder Avila (SP) — Avila is scheduled to undergo Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Wednesday.08/06
  • 60-Day-ILStephen Kolek (SP) — Kolek is scheduled to undergo Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Wednesday.08/04
  • 60-Day-ILCole Ragans (SP) — Ragans underwent UCL repair surgery on his left elbow Wednesday.07/02
  • 60-Day-ILJonathan India (2B) — No.06/04
  • 60-Day-ILAlec Marsh (SP) — The Royals placed Marsh (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.05/08

Cleveland is the only team here with something to play for. At the start of the month the Guardians held a slim lead for the AL's third wild-card spot, and at 83-76 with a week left every game counts. They're 4-1 in their last 5 and took 2 of the first 3 in Boston. The Royals are 1-4 in their last 5. They lost 2 straight in Pittsburgh and have taken 1 of the first 3 from the White Sox. All that's left for them is playing spoiler.

Cleveland Guardians
(83-76)
09/24W@Red Sox1-0
09/23L@Red Sox0-1
09/22W@Red Sox3-2
09/20WvsAthletics1-0
09/19WvsAthletics12-6
Kansas City Royals
(68-91)
09/24LvsWhite Sox1-9
09/23WvsWhite Sox5-4
09/22LvsWhite Sox11-14
09/20L@Pirates3-4
09/19L@Pirates5-6

The real question is when Cleveland's quiet bats finally score, not whether Williams pitches well. Cameron can keep a game close through 6 innings. After that, Kansas City has to cover the late innings with whoever is left in the bullpen. It's 65 degrees and cloudy with a 5 mph breeze, so the weather won't help the hitters. The Polymarket chat has pulled 233 members, a small fraction of a normal MLB room. For Cleveland it's a big game even if nobody is watching.

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Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals — Gavin Williams Brings Cleveland's Stingy Staff To A Beat-Up Kauffman | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush