Kansas City has nothing left to play for, and the pitching has looked like it. The Royals have lost 3 straight and are 1-4 over their last 5. They've allowed 14, 9, 12 and 11 runs in 4 of those games. The bats haven't quit, though. They put up 11 on the White Sox and then 9 and 5 on Cleveland, so this isn't a lineup that's rolling over.
Cleveland's offense has swung hard in both directions. The Guardians took 2 of 3 in Boston by scoring 3, 0 and 1 runs, winning 2 low-scoring games on pitching. Then they got to Kansas City and scored 12 and 11. They're doing it without Rhys Hoskins, who is on the 10-day IL with a back injury and only recently started a swing progression program, and without reliever Colin Holderman, who got an injection in his right wrist.
The Royals' injury list looks like a September roster that was taken apart piece by piece. Cole Ragans, Stephen Kolek, Luinder Avila and Alec Marsh are all out of the rotation. Carlos Estevez, Nick Mears, James McArthur, Connor Seabold and Beck Way are all out of the bullpen. On top of that, Craig Kimbrel is on bereavement leave, and Steven Cruz and Nick Loftin are on paternity leave. Once Lynch is out, Matt Quatraro is working with whatever relievers are still standing on the season's final day.
It's 73 degrees and mostly sunny with barely any wind, so the weather won't change much. Two things decide this game: how deep Vogt lets Messick go, and whether Lynch can get the Royals through 5 innings for once. If Messick gets a full start, Cleveland should be heavily favored. If he's out after 3, both bullpens decide it, and Kansas City's has been hit much harder by injuries.