The Guardians (27-22) have quietly turned this into a real run, winning 4 of their last 5 and putting Detroit (20-28) in their rearview in the AL Central. Tuesday night at Comerica is Parker Messick vs. Keider Montero, and on paper it isn't especially close.
Messick has been one of the better stories in the American League — a 2.35 ERA, a near no-hitter against the Orioles, and a strikeout clinic last time out against Tampa even in a Cleveland loss. He did get knocked around by the A's recently (3 homers in one start), so he isn't bulletproof, but the stuff has been legit all year. Montero, meanwhile, has earned his rotation spot by filling in for an injured Detroit staff and gave the Tigers 8 innings against Colorado on May 8.
And about that Tigers staff — woof is the wrong word but the IL is the story. Tarik Skubal is throwing a bullpen Monday but he's not walking through that door tonight. Verlander threw a 50-pitch sim game. Reese Olson is done for the year. Jackson Jobe, Ty Madden, Troy Melton, Beau Brieske — all out. The lineup isn't healthy either, with Kerry Carpenter, Gleyber Torres, Javier Baez and Parker Meadows all sidelined.
- Day-To-DayCarlos Hernandez RP — Hernandez (shoulder) began his rehab assignment with Triple-A Omaha on Friday.
- 10-Day-ILGabriel Arias SS — no
- Day-To-DayDugan Darnell RP — The Tigers announced Sunday that Darnell (hip) has been playing catch five times a week and is also taking part in a running progression, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
- Day-To-DayJosue Briceno C — Briceno said Friday that he expects to be sidelined a few months after having surgery Wednesday to repair a tendon in his right wrist, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
- 10-Day-ILKerry Carpenter RF — Carpenter (shoulder) has been doing light running and throwing since landing on the 10-day injured list and expects to resume swinging a bat this week, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
- 10-Day-ILGleyber Torres 2B — Manager A.J. Hinch said Friday that Torres (oblique) is "trending toward" beginning a rehab assignment, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILJavier Baez SS — The Tigers placed Baez on the 10-day injured list Wednesday with a right ankle sprain.
- 15-Day-ILTarik Skubal SP — Skubal (elbow) is slated to throw a bullpen session Monday, Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILTy Madden SP — The Tigers are placing Madden on the 15-day injured list retroactive to Saturday due to a bruised right forearm.
- 60-Day-ILTroy Melton RP — Melton is slated to make the fourth start of his rehab assignment Tuesday with Single-A Lakeland, Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
The market sees it the way you'd expect. Cleveland is the road favorite, Detroit is a public-money home dog at -162 on DK that the sharp side (Pinnacle) has at +105. That's a sizable gap, and the EV math points one direction — the Guardians moneyline grades out at +2.5% expected value while the Tigers home ML sits at -9.1%. The total is 8 and the action is dead split.
Bottom line: Detroit is banged up, cold (1-4 in their last 5), and running Montero out against a guy pitching like a top-15 starter in baseball. The Tigers needed to steal one in this series and they got the wrong end of the rotation lottery. Lean Cleveland, take the under if you must, and circle the date Skubal comes back because this team needs him yesterday.