Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins

Fri Sep 117:10 PM CTMinneapolis, MN
By JR·2 min read

TLDR: Cleveland and Minnesota both spent this stretch losing series, but only one of these two clubs is doing it with half its rotation on the injured list.

FINAL · SAT SEP 12, 12:10 AM
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Minnesota's rotation is down four arms for the season, and Cleveland's Parker Messick brings a strikeout-heavy résumé that outpaces his win total. Both clubs are coming off series splits with little recent momentum, and the health gap between the two staffs is what separates this matchup beyond the raw records.

Cleveland Guardians
  • Messick's 2.53 ERA, 12 Ks last outing
  • Beat Baltimore 9-5 once this week
  • Lost last game, 5-9 to Baltimore
  • Split last two series (1-1, then 1-2)
Minnesota Twins
  • Bradley won his last start
  • Split last two series evenly (1-1, 1-2)
  • Four rotation arms lost for the season
  • Buxton (hip) out of the lineup

First pitch at Target Field is set for 7:10 PM CT, and the pitching matchup tilts toward Cleveland on paper. Parker Messick carries a 2.53 ERA into the night, and his last time out he struck out 12 in 6 innings — an eye-popping line that still ended in a loss. Taj Bradley draws the ball for Minnesota; his last start went 5 innings and cost him 4 earned runs, even though the Twins got him the win.

Parker Messick
Parker Messick
(12-9)·2.55 ERA
Sep 5 vs Tigers
L
6.0IP
3ER
12K
2BB
103P
09/11 Lineup
Taj Bradley
Taj Bradley
(12-6)·3.73 ERA
Sep 5 @ White Sox
W
5.0IP
4ER
6K
2BB
80P
09/11 Lineup

Minnesota's rotation trouble goes well beyond tonight's starter. Pablo Lopez, David Festa, Mick Abel and Mike Paredes are all out for the year or close to it, which has forced Bradley and company to soak up more innings than the Twins probably drew up. Cleveland has its own absences — Rhys Hoskins is still working his way back from a back injury and reliever Colin Holderman just went down with wrist inflammation — but the depth-chart damage is more lopsided at Target Field, and the board reflects it.

Both clubs are treading water right now — Cleveland dropped its last game, Minnesota did too — and neither has strung together much momentum lately. That makes the health picture, more than any hot streak, the thing worth watching here.

Cleveland has taken 1 of 3 from Baltimore after going 1-1 with Detroit, while Minnesota has gone through a similar stretch — 1-1 with the White Sox, and 1 of 3 from Detroit. Neither team is playing inspired baseball at the moment.

09/09L@Orioles5-9
09/08W@Orioles9-5
09/07L@Orioles4-6
09/06WvsTigers3-2
09/05LvsTigers0-6
09/09L@Tigers2-7
09/08W@Tigers3-2
09/07L@Tigers4-5
09/06L@White Sox1-10
09/05W@White Sox6-4

The absences matter more for one side than the other. Minnesota's medical group already includes multiple starters who needed season-ending surgery this year, and Byron Buxton's hip issue takes the Twins' best defender and one of their top bats out of the middle of the lineup.

With the weather clear and warm at Target Field, neither pitcher figures to get much help from the elements. It's a matchup of a team trying to hold serve down the stretch against one that's already picking up the pieces.

Guardians 5, Twins 2: Final Score & Odds Recap — Guardians' Ace Matchup Edge Meets Twins' Thin Rotation