Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox

By JR·2 min read

TLDR: Cleveland woke up just in time. Down 2-1 in the ALDS, the Guardians need 1 more win at Rate Field to drag this series back home, and the White Sox need 1 more to end it in front of their own crowd.

10/09, 7:00 PMTBStruTV

The White Sox lead the ALDS 2-1 and can close it out at home, but their Game 3 pitching plan fell apart: 7 pitchers, 7 walks and a 4-run Cleveland 3rd. Parker Messick, who has pitched well at Rate Field, starts for the Guardians against a Chicago opener in Hagen Smith, so the game likely comes down to whether Chicago's thinned bullpen can cover the middle innings again. The board treats it as close to a coin flip.

Cleveland Guardians
  • Messick 2.45 ERA at Rate Field this season
  • Ramírez snapped 0-for-6 with a double and triple
  • Just scored 9 on 11 hits
  • Scored 3 runs total in Games 1 and 2
  • Bullpen without Holderman and Walters
  • Hoskins still out of the lineup
Chicago White Sox
  • Won the first 2 games of the series
  • Newcomb gave 2 scoreless innings as Game 3 opener
  • Home crowd for a potential clincher
  • Used 7 pitchers in Game 3
  • Pitchers issued 7 walks in Game 3 loss
  • Opener plan again with Castillo on the IL

Game 3 was a bullpen fight on both sides. Sean Newcomb opened for Chicago with 2 scoreless innings, and Daniel Espino worked for Cleveland. Game 4 looks like a different setup: MLB.com lists Parker Messick for the Guardians and Hagen Smith opening for the White Sox. Messick started Game 1 and pitched well enough to win it, allowing 2 runs on 4 hits with 6 strikeouts, but his offense gave him nothing in a 3-0 loss. He has also been good in this building, with a 2.45 ERA, 18 strikeouts and 2 walks in 14 2/3 innings at Rate Field this season.

Parker Messick
Parker Messick
(12-9)·2.56 ERA
Sep 27 @ Royals
ND
3.0IP
1ER
2K
1BB
64P
10/08 Lineup
Hagen Smith
Hagen Smith
(3-3)·1.29 ERA
Sep 10 vs Pirates
ND
2.0IP
0ER
3K
0BB
33P
10/08 Lineup

Messick's history here is the reason to trust him, and Chicago's Game 3 is the reason to worry about the White Sox. They used 7 pitchers on Wednesday after Bryan Hudson came apart in the 3rd, and the Sun-Times counted 7 walks from Sox pitchers in what it called their worst performance in weeks. Now they're opening with a lefty again, the day after their bullpen was asked to cover most of a game. The board treats this as close to a coin flip, which makes sense for a series where neither team has run away with anything yet.

Cleveland's bats are the real question. The Guardians scored 3 runs total in Games 1 and 2, then put up 9 on 11 hits without a home run in Game 3. That rally ran on extra-base hits to the gaps: José Ramírez went 2-for-4 with a double and a triple after starting the series 0-for-6, and Jo Adell's 2-out triple capped the 4-run 3rd. Small ball like that can be repeated. It can also disappear as fast as it showed up.

10/07W@White Sox9-3
10/05LvsWhite Sox3-4
10/03LvsWhite Sox0-3
09/27L@Royals2-3
09/26W@Royals11-5
10/07LvsGuardians3-9
10/05W@Guardians4-3
10/03W@Guardians3-0
09/30W@Astros7-3
09/29W@Astros6-3

Chicago arrived as the hotter team. Before Wednesday's loss, the White Sox had won 4 straight, including their first 2 against Houston and the first 2 games of this series. Wednesday was their first loss of the postseason, and it came in front of their first home playoff crowd in years. MLB.com expects that crowd to be extremely nervous for Game 4. It will get loud quickly if Smith and the pitchers behind him keep the Guardians off the bases early.

Neither bullpen is at full strength. Cleveland is without Colin Holderman, who needs season-ending wrist surgery, and Andrew Walters, who had elbow surgery, and Rhys Hoskins is still working back from his back injury. Chicago has lost Luis Castillo to a shoulder impingement plus several relievers, including Jordan Leasure, Prelander Berroa and Mike Vasil. Both teams are piecing together innings with whoever is available. First pitch is 7:00 PM CT, with 61 degrees and a clear sky. Win and the White Sox go to the ALCS. Lose and both teams' bullpens have to go again in a Game 5.

ALDS Game 4: Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox — Guardians Bring Their Bats Back to Rate Field for Game 4 | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush