Kirby's last time out he went 7 strong against the Braves and still ate a 3-2 loss because his lineup punched out 16 times behind him. That's the Mariners in a nutshell right now — they're hitting .229 as a team, 27th in baseball, and the pitching has to be perfect. Tonight it might have to be again, because Peter Lambert is the one Astros starter who has been worth a damn.
Lambert wasn't even on a big-league roster on April 17. He got selected up from Sugar Land that day after a year in Japan with the Yakult Swallows, and his last start was 7 scoreless against the Dodgers. Four starts, 2.42 ERA. The Astros' staff ERA as a whole is 5.56 — bottom of the league — so Lambert has basically been their one reliable arm while the IL has eaten the rest of the rotation.
- Day-To-DayTeddy McGraw (SP) — McGraw is working his way back from right elbow issues, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILPatrick Wisdom (1B) — The Mariners placed Wisdom on the 10-day injured list Friday due to a left oblique strain, retroactive to Wednesday.05/08
- 10-Day-ILVictor Robles (RF) — Robles (pectoral) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Tacoma on Sunday, Adam Jude of The Seattle Times reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILWill Wilson (3B) — The Mariners placed Wilson on the 10-day injured list Saturday due to a fractured left thumb.05/08
- 15-Day-ILBryce Miller (SP) — Miller (oblique) will return from the injured list to start Wednesday's game against the Astros, Shannon Drayer of SeattleSports.com reports05/09
- 15-Day-ILGabe Speier (RP) — The Mariners placed Speier on the 15-day injured list Monday with left shoulder inflammation, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILMatt Brash (RP) — Brash (lat) began playing catch Tuesday, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILMiles Mastrobuoni (3B) — Seattle transferred Mastrobuoni (calf) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILLogan Evans (SP) — The Mariners placed Evans (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Monday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILCarlos Vargas (RP) — Vargas (lat) has suffered a setback in his recovery, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayLance McCullers Jr. (SP) — McCullers was removed from his start Wednesday against the Dodgers in the top of the third inning after he appeared to be contending with a blister on his pitching hand, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports. He was charged with six earned runs on four hits and three walks over 2.2 innings prior to his departure.05/08
- Day-To-DayWalker Janek (C) — Double-A Corpus Christi placed Janek on its 7-day injured list Sunday due to an unspecified injury.05/08
- Day-To-DayLucas Spence (OF) — Double-A Corpus Christi placed Spence on its 7-day injured list April 22 due to an unspecified injury.05/08
- 10-Day-ILCarlos Correa (SS) — Correa is scheduled to undergo surgery Monday in Houston to repair the tendon in his left ankle, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.05/10
- 10-Day-ILJeremy Pena (SS) — Astros manager Joe Espada said Pena (hamstring) is expected to begin a minor-league rehab assignment Tuesday or Wednesday, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.05/10
- 10-Day-ILJoey Loperfido (LF) — The Astros announced Monday that Loperfido (quadriceps) has started light running and light baseball activity, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILJake Meyers (CF) — The Astros announced Monday that Meyers (oblique) has started swinging a bat and reincorporating other baseball activities, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILTaylor Trammell (CF) — The Astros announced Monday that Trammell (groin) has begun a running progression in addition to taking part in light baseball activity, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILYainer Diaz (C) — The Astros placed Diaz (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Tuesday, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILTatsuya Imai (SP) — Imai (arm) will be reinstated from the 15-day injured list to start Tuesday against the Mariners, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.05/10
- 15-Day-ILBennett Sousa (RP) — The Astros placed Sousa on the 15-day injured list Saturday with left elbow inflammation, retroactive to Wednesday, Julia Morales of Space City Home Network reports.05/09
- 15-Day-ILNate Pearson (RP) — Pearson (elbow) permitted one run on one hit and four walks over two innings in his first rehab start with Triple-A Sugar Land on Thursday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILHunter Brown (SP) — The Astros transferred Brown (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.05/09
- 60-Day-ILHayden Wesneski (SP) — The Astros announced Monday that Wesneski (elbow) is continuing to complete regular bullpen sessions as part of his throwing progression, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILRonel Blanco (SP) — The Astros announced Monday that Blanco (elbow) is continuing to complete regular bullpen sessions as part of his throwing progression, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILBrandon Walter (SP) — The Astros placed Walter (elbow) on the 60-day injured list.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJosh Hader (RP) — Hader (biceps) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Sugar Land on Tuesday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILCristian Javier (SP) — The Astros announced Monday that Javier (shoulder) will begin a throwing progression this week, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.05/08
And that IL is brutal. Carlos Correa is scheduled for ankle surgery this week. Jeremy Pena is just starting a rehab assignment. Hunter Brown got moved to the 60-day. Yainer Diaz, Jake Meyers, Josh Hader — all out. Houston is starting Tatsuya Imai off the IL on Tuesday too, which tells you how thin this thing is. Seattle has its own pile of bodies, including Bryce Miller returning Wednesday, but Houston's list is the one that decides games.
Pinnacle has the total at 8.5 and the spread basically a coin flip at -1, which is how it should price out: Kirby vs. Lambert is a legit pitching matchup on paper, and neither offense should scare anyone tonight. The Astros lineup is still the better unit (.258 team average, 3rd in MLB, Yordan Alvarez doing Yordan things) — but they have to actually touch Kirby, and historically that has not gone well for them.
Bottom line: Seattle has owned this matchup, has the better arm on the bump by reputation, and is getting a depleted Houston lineup. If you're fading the Mariners here you're really betting that Lambert's stretch is real and that Kirby's run support stays missing. Both are live possibilities. Neither is the way I'd lean.