Barstool Bush
Predictions

Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians

By Bush StaffUpdated 57d ago·2 min read
Seattle MarinersSEA(41-41)
Cleveland GuardiansCLE(42-39)
3—1
FINAL
123456789RHE
SEA
001000110361
CLE
100000000140

Luis Castillo (2-6, 5.22 ERA) draws the start for Seattle against Joey Cantillo (6-3, 4.05 ERA) at Progressive Field, with first pitch set for 7:10 PM ET. The moneyline is priced as a near-coinflip — a number that reflects how much Cleveland's injury losses have suppressed their ceiling rather than any renewed confidence in Castillo.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Mariners(41-41)
LLWWL
3
Guardians(42-39)
WLLLW
1
Best BetMariners -106
Pregame

The market has this essentially even, which means you're not paying heavy juice to back Seattle. Cleveland is missing Ramirez, Martinez, and DeLauter — real offensive attrition that has held the home price down despite Cantillo's strong recent form. The Mariners have enough lineup talent to steal a road game, and near-even money doesn't penalize you for Castillo's season-long struggles the way it probably should.

Cantillo's last outing — 8 innings, 1 earned run, 9 strikeouts against Houston on June 20 — was the kind of start that makes Cleveland's front office feel good about their rotation depth. He had been inconsistent earlier in June, including a rough outing against Texas that pushed his ERA toward mid-4s territory, but that Houston line is what a capable No. 2 starter looks like. Castillo's last traditional start came June 13 at Washington (5.2 innings, 2 earned runs, 7 hits), a workable but unspectacular line that barely disguises a season-long pattern of inconsistency. The Mariners have resorted to running Castillo in piggyback arrangements with Bryce Miller this month — a workaround that tells you everything about where his standing in the rotation has gone.

Seattle Mariners
Luis Castillo
(3-7)·4.79 ERA
Jun 13 @ Nationals
L
5.2IP
2ER
4K
2BB
84P
06/26 Lineup
Cleveland Guardians
Joey Cantillo
(7-4)·3.66 ERA
Jun 20 @ Astros
W
8.0IP
1ER
9K
1BB
98P
06/26 Lineup
Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners
(41-41)
Jun 25L@ Pirates1-5
Jun 24L@ Pirates1-11
Jun 23W@ Pirates3-2
Jun 21Wvs Red Sox3-1
Jun 21Lvs Red Sox1-5
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
(42-39)
Jun 24W@ White Sox4-3
Jun 23L@ White Sox1-2
Jun 22L@ White Sox5-6
Jun 21L@ Astros1-2
Jun 20W@ Astros8-1

Seattle arrives at exactly .500 (41-41) after closing the Pittsburgh road trip with consecutive blowouts — 11-1 on June 24 and 5-1 on June 25. The Mariners scored 1 run in each of those games. That kind of offensive output is survivable with a good starter on the mound; it becomes a structural problem when Castillo is the guy. The Guardians (42-39) have stayed afloat despite their injuries, picking up a 4-3 road win over Chicago on June 24 to avoid a sweep before returning home to start a June 26-July 5 homestand. They've played their last 5 games on the road, so this is a meaningful reset.

Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners
(7)
  • Day-To-DayDane Dunning (RP) — The Mariners signed Dunning to a minor-league contract Thursday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.06/13
  • 10-Day-ILBrendan Donovan (3B) — Donovan (groin) began a running progression Tuesday, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports.06/17
  • 15-Day-ILCooper Criswell (RP) — Criswell was diagnosed with a Grade 1-plus pectoral strain Tuesday, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports.06/17
  • 15-Day-ILMatt Brash (RP) — General manager Justin Hollander said Tuesday that Brash was diagnosed with a Grade 1 strain in his right lat, Shannon Drayer of SeattleSports.com reports.06/16
  • 60-Day-ILCarlos Vargas (RP) — Mariners general manager Justin Hollander said Tuesday that Vargas (lat) recently began a throwing program and could be ready to return from the 60-day injured list around the Aug. 3 trade deadline, Zac Hereth of 710 AM Seattle Sports reports.06/17
  • 60-Day-ILWill Wilson (3B) — Wilson (thumb) has gone 3-for-9 with two RBI and a 1:2 BB:K in his first three rehab games between High-A Everett and Triple-A Tacoma.06/17
  • 60-Day-ILLogan Evans (SP) — The Mariners placed Evans (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Monday.05/08
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
(5)
  • Day-To-DayTanner Burns (SP) — no06/17
  • Day-To-DayCarlos Hernandez (RP) — Hernandez (shoulder) began his rehab assignment with Triple-A Omaha on Friday.05/08
  • 10-Day-ILChase DeLauter (RF) — Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said Monday that the team hopes DeLauter (rib) will be ready to return during its June 26-July 5 homestand, Tim Stebbins of MLB.com reports.06/22
  • 10-Day-ILJose Ramirez (3B) — Ramirez underwent surgery to address the hamate bone fracture in his left hand Tuesday and is expected to be sidelined 5-to-7 weeks, Zack Meisel of The Athletic reports.06/16
  • 10-Day-ILAngel Martinez (LF) — Martinez (foot) will be placed on the 10-day injured list Tuesday, reports Cade Cracas of Sports Illustrated.06/16

The Ramirez situation is the story of Cleveland's month. He fractured his left hamate bone on June 13, underwent surgery on June 16, and won't be back for 5-to-7 weeks. He had appeared in every Cleveland game before that. Losing your best hitter for the better part of 2 months is a real blow, and adding Angel Martinez (foot, 10-day IL) to the same report only makes the lineup thinner. Chase DeLauter (rib) is also out but reportedly in the mix to return during this homestand. Seattle's injury picture runs through the bullpen: Carlos Vargas (60-day IL, lat), Matt Brash (15-day IL, lat), and Cooper Criswell (15-day IL, pectoral) are all out, which means a short Castillo outing puts real strain on whoever's left behind him.

Sources

MLBSeattle MarinersCleveland GuardiansPolymarketKalshiLuis CastilloJoey Cantillo