Earlier this month the Royals went into Seattle and swept the Mariners. Since then? Kansas City has gone 5-11 and is reportedly averaging just 3.4 runs per game during the slide, last cracking 4 in a game on May 13. The 20-31 record tells you everything you need about the vibes at Kauffman right now.
Seattle's pitching plan is the easy sell here. Kirby is sitting on a 3.45 ERA with the strikeout stuff still humming — he's been the kind of arm you bet on against a lineup that can't string anything together. Stephen Kolek answers for KC at 2-0 with a 4.24 ERA, a guy who has pitched his way into real starts after coming back from the oblique earlier this month.
The injury sheet is where this thing gets ugly for the Royals. Cole Ragans is still rehabbing in Triple-A, Kris Bubic is on the 15-day, Carlos Estevez is out with a rotator cuff strain, and Jonathan India is gone for the year after labrum surgery. Seattle isn't healthy either — Cal Raleigh is on the IL with an oblique and won't be re-evaluated for another week — but the depth chart in KC is the one that's actively on fire.
- Day-To-DayTeddy McGraw SP — McGraw is working his way back from right elbow issues, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline reports.
- 10-Day-ILBrendan Donovan 3B — Mariners general manager Justin Hollander said Sunday that Donovan will receive a platelet-rich plasma injection for his strained left groin as well as his adductor and is expected to resume baseball activity in 2-to-3 weeks, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILCal Raleigh C — The Mariners will shut Raleigh (oblique) down for a week before re-evaluating him, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.
- 10-Day-ILWill Wilson 3B — The Mariners placed Wilson on the 10-day injured list Saturday due to a fractured left thumb.
- 15-Day-ILGabe Speier RP — Speier (shoulder) began a rehab assignment with High-A Everett on Wednesday, allowing three runs on three hits, including two home runs, over one inning. He struck out two.
- 60-Day-ILMiles Mastrobuoni 3B — Seattle transferred Mastrobuoni (calf) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
- 60-Day-ILLogan Evans SP — The Mariners placed Evans (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
- 60-Day-ILCarlos Vargas RP — Vargas (lat) has suffered a setback in his recovery, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.
- Day-To-DayAnthony Simonelli SP — no
- Day-To-DayJavier Vaz 2B — Vaz (fingers) has produced a .238/.304/.262 slash line with zero home runs and three stolen bases in 10 games since being activated from Double-A Northwest Arkansas' 7-day injured list April 22.
- Day-To-DayTyson Guerrero RP — no
- 10-Day-ILJonathan India 2B — The Royals announced Tuesday that India underwent season-ending surgery to repair the labrum in his left shoulder.
- 15-Day-ILCole Ragans SP — The Royals announced Friday that Ragans (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Omaha on Saturday.
- 15-Day-ILMatt Strahm RP — Strahm received an injection Monday to help with symptoms of right knee inflammation, MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILKris Bubic SP — Bubic (3-2) took the loss against the White Sox on Thursday, pitching four innings and allowing five runs on five hits and three walks while striking out one batter.
- 15-Day-ILCarlos Estevez RP — Estevez (foot) was diagnosed with a right rotator cuff strain Thursday, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.
The market sees what you see. Mariners are -133 on the money line at Pinnacle, Royals back at +121, total sitting at 8.5. DK's public is loading up on Seattle (78% of bets, 55% of handle on the ML) and pounding the over. Worth flagging: EV is negative across every side here. The number is fair, the line move isn't gifting you anything, and the Royals' lone bright spot is Bobby Witt Jr. trying to single-handedly drag a corpse — his 3.3 fWAR leads baseball this season.
Bottom line: the Mariners should win this game and they probably will. Kirby vs. a lineup that can't score, a depleted bullpen behind a spot starter, on the road or not. The trap is forgetting that this same Royals team swept Seattle three weeks ago when nobody saw it coming. Royals at home, weird ballpark, weird division — leave a little room for the chaos.