The Blue Jays are 4-1 over their last 5 and the Marlins are 3-2, so on paper this looks competitive. Then you remember Miami is sending Janson Junk (5.07 ERA) to the mound against Trey Yesavage and his 1.07 ERA, and the vibes get a little less even.
Yesavage has been the story in Toronto since coming off the IL. Five starts, a 1.07 ERA, 29 strikeouts in 25.1 innings, and his most recent outing was 6 shutout innings against the Yankees with 8 punchouts. He pitched in the World Series last fall as a 22-year-old, and somehow he's gotten better. Junk, meanwhile, has surrendered 19 runs over his last 3 starts including 8 to the Braves on May 20. Not exactly the matchup Miami was hoping for in the series opener.
The Marlins still get to ride momentum. They just swept the Mets at home, capped by a walk-off grand slam Sunday, and the bats have been the surprise of an otherwise quiet team. The bigger issue is that they're a road disaster — only 7 wins away from loanDepot all year — and now they get the Blue Jays in a building where Toronto is 15-11.
There are some health questions to track before first pitch. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (elbow) is day-to-day and manager John Schneider said Sunday he's "definitely a possibility" to play. Less encouraging: Dylan Cease is getting an MRI on his left hamstring, which is the last thing this rotation needed with Berrios out after Tommy John surgery and Scherzer still on the 15-day IL. Miami isn't exactly whole either, with Connor Norby leaving Sunday's game with elbow discomfort.
- Day-To-DayKemp Alderman RF — Triple-A Jacksonville placed Alderman on the 7-day injured list Tuesday due to a left wrist injury, Michael Germanese of Roundtable.io reports.
- Day-To-DayThomas White SP — Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix said Sunday that White is recovering from "a bit of a shoulder thing," Kyle Sielaff of Marlins.tv reports.
- Day-To-DayConnor Norby 1B — The Marlins announced that Norby was removed ahead of the sixth inning of Sunday's 4-0 win over the Mets due to left elbow discomfort, Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald reports. He went 0-for-1 at the plate prior to his departure.
- 7-day ilLeo Jimenez 3B — Jimenez will head to the IL after being removed from Tuesday's game against Atlanta, reports Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald.
- 10-Day-ILGriffin Conine LF — Conine will undergo a left hamstring tendon excision next week, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILRobby Snelling SP — Snelling underwent internal brace surgery Friday to repair a torn UCL in his left elbow.
- 60-Day-ILRonny Henriquez RP — The Marlins placed Henriquez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
- 60-Day-ILAdam Mazur SP — The Marlins placed Mazur (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
- Day-To-DayVladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B — Blue Jays manager John Schneider said after Sunday's loss to the Pirates that Guerrero (elbow) is "definitely a possibility" to play Monday against the Marlins, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayDylan Cease SP — Blue Jays manager John Schneider said after Sunday's 4-1 loss to the Pirates that Cease will undergo an MRI on his left hamstring, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports.
- Day-To-DayGeovanny Jesus Planchart C — no
- Day-To-DayChay Yeager RP — Yeager will undergo season-ending UCL surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
- Day-To-DayCJ Stubbs C — The Blue Jays signed Stubbs to a minor-league contract Friday that includes an invitation to spring training.
- Day-To-DayJaven Coleman P — no
- 10-Day-ILAddison Barger RF — The Blue Jays are hopeful Barger (elbow) will resume hitting and throwing Sunday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
- 10-Day-ILAlejandro Kirk C — Kirk (thumb) will be evaluated by the Blue Jays training staff this weekend as he prepares to take the next step in his rehab, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
Pinnacle has the Jays at -163 with the total sitting at 7.5, and that feels honest. Yesavage is the kind of guy who can throw an under by himself right now, and Junk is the kind of guy who can blow it up by himself. If Miami is going to steal this one, the bullpen has to keep the deficit manageable long enough for the lineup to grind out Yesavage's pitch count. That's a lot of ifs against a kid who has barely been touched.