Toronto counters with Braydon Fisher as the opener. He's listed at 2-1 with a 2.73 ERA, but the context matters: Fisher hasn't recorded more than 6 outs in any appearance this year. This is a bullpen game dressed up as a starter matchup, and the Jays are doing it because the rotation behind Fisher is a triage unit.
That rotation problem is brutal. Dylan Cease is getting an MRI on his hamstring. Max Scherzer is throwing a live BP this week trying to work back from a forearm. Jose Berrios just had Tommy John. Shane Bieber is still on a rehab assignment in the Florida Complex League. That's a Cy Young trophy case sitting on the shelf.
- Day-To-DayConnor Norby (1B) — Norby (elbow) is not in the lineup for Monday's contest in Toronto.05/25
- Day-To-DayKemp Alderman (RF) — Triple-A Jacksonville placed Alderman on the 7-day injured list Tuesday due to a left wrist injury, Michael Germanese of Roundtable.io reports.05/25
- Day-To-DayThomas White (SP) — Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix said Sunday that White is recovering from "a bit of a shoulder thing," Kyle Sielaff of Marlins.tv reports.05/25
- 7-day ilLeo Jimenez (3B) — Jimenez will head to the IL after being removed from Tuesday's game against Atlanta, reports Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald.05/21
- 10-Day-ILGriffin Conine (LF) — Conine will undergo a left hamstring tendon excision next week, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.05/08
- OutJesus Tinoco (RP) — The Marlins re-signed Tinoco (elbow) to a minor-league contract Jan. 5.05/08
- 60-Day-ILRobby Snelling (SP) — Snelling underwent internal brace surgery Friday to repair a torn UCL in his left elbow.05/22
- 60-Day-ILRonny Henriquez (RP) — The Marlins placed Henriquez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILAdam Mazur (SP) — The Marlins placed Mazur (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/08
- Day-To-DayVladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B) — Guerrero (elbow) is absent from the lineup for Monday's game against the Marlins.05/25
- Day-To-DayGeovanny Jesus Planchart (C) — no05/08
- Day-To-DayChay Yeager (RP) — Yeager will undergo season-ending UCL surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayCJ Stubbs (C) — The Blue Jays signed Stubbs to a minor-league contract Friday that includes an invitation to spring training.05/08
- Day-To-DayJaven Coleman (P) — no05/08
- 10-Day-ILAddison Barger (RF) — Blue Jays manager John Schneider said Monday that Barger (elbow) is "probably still a couple days away from starting throwing," Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/25
- 10-Day-ILAlejandro Kirk (C) — Kirk (thumb) will be evaluated by the Blue Jays training staff this weekend as he prepares to take the next step in his rehab, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/23
- 15-Day-ILJoe Mantiply (RP) — Mantiply (knee) is expected to resume throwing within the next couple of days, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/25
- 15-Day-ILMax Scherzer (SP) — Scherzer (forearm) will throw a live bullpen session in Toronto on Wednesday, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/25
- 15-Day-ILDylan Cease (SP) — Blue Jays manager John Schneider said after Sunday's 4-1 loss to the Pirates that Cease will undergo an MRI on his left hamstring, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports.05/25
- 15-Day-ILJose Berrios (SP) — Blue Jays manager John Schneider said that Berrios underwent full Tommy John surgery Wednesday in addition to having a stress fracture repaired, Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reports.05/20
- 15-Day-ILTommy Nance (RP) — Manager John Schneider said Tuesday that the outlook for Nance's forearm injury is a "best case" scenario, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.05/19
- developmental listFernando Perez (P)
- 15-Day-ILLazaro Estrada (RP) — The Blue Jays placed Estrada on the MLB 15-day injured list April 5 with a right shoulder impingement, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILShane Bieber (SP) — Bieber (elbow) allowed three hits while striking out three batters across two scoreless innings in his rehab start in the Florida Complex League on Monday, per Sportsnet.ca.05/25
- 60-Day-ILYimi Garcia (RP) — Manager John Schneider said Garcia (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/22
- 60-Day-ILAnthony Santander (RF) — Toronto transferred Santander (shoulder) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILCody Ponce (SP) — Ponce underwent surgery Friday to repair the ACL in his right knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILBowden Francis (SP) — The Blue Jays placed Francis (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/08
On top of the arms, Vlad Guerrero Jr. is out of the lineup after taking a pitch off the inside of his right elbow Sunday. X-rays were clean and he's listed day-to-day, possibly available off the bench, but losing your best bat against an Alcantara start is a hit Toronto can't really absorb.
The market sees the Jays as moderate home favorites despite all of that, which says more about the Fisher-plus-bullpen blueprint than any belief in the offense without Vlad. The total sitting at 7.5 with juice to the under makes sense — Alcantara has a real chance to give Miami length, and Toronto's piecemeal staff has been functional even if it isn't sexy.
Bottom line: the Marlins have the better single-game pitching plan and the hotter recent stretch. The Jays are stitching together 9 innings from an opener and whatever's left in the pen, without their MVP-caliber first baseman. If you trust Alcantara to do Alcantara things, this is a spot Miami should be in until the late innings.