That favorite status isn't hard to square with what Atlanta's done lately. The Braves have gone 12-5 since the All-Star break and now sit 8 games clear of Philadelphia in the NL East, a cushion that lets the Braves manage games without the desperation Miami's staff has to play with every night.
Miami's turnaround is the more interesting story tonight. This is a team that just crawled out of a franchise-record 12-game losing streak and has now won 6 of its last 7, including a run through Queens against the Mets. That's a different club than the one that was buried a few weeks ago, and it's why the Marlins are still alive for a wild-card spot with real teeth.
Holmes has actually had Miami's number before, going 1-0 with a 3.93 ERA in his career starts against the Marlins, though his last outing got cut short at 4.2 innings against Washington. Gusto, meanwhile, was rocked for 6 earned runs in 5 innings his last time out against Philadelphia — if that version shows up again, Atlanta's lineup is deep enough to make it a long night in Cobb County.