First pitch is 5:45 PM CT at Nationals Park, with Cavalli (3-3, 3.62) drawing Alcantara (3-4, 4.66) for the series opener. Pinnacle has Washington at -136 on the moneyline, Miami +123, with a total of 8.5. The market lines up with the form: Nats fresh off taking 2 of 3 from the Padres, Marlins arriving on fumes.
The pitching split is the whole story here. Cavalli has gone at least 5 2/3 and given up 3 ER or fewer in each of his last 4 starts, capped by 6 innings of 1-run, 7-strikeout work against Cleveland on May 26. Alcantara, meanwhile, has been torched in 3 of his last 5 — including 8 earned on 10 hits in 5 2/3 against the Blue Jays in that same May 26 window. Five homers across his last two outings. That's not a slump, that's a leak.
The Marlins just got swept in Queens, finishing the trip with a 10-1 beatdown on Sunday where Juan Soto dropped a grand slam on a bullpen that has zero margin for error right now. Miami sits 26-34, last in the NL East, and the rotation is a M.A.S.H. unit — Eury Perez, Janson Junk, Robby Snelling, and Adam Mazur all on the IL, with Andrew Nardi gone for roughly three months with a rib stress reaction.
- Day-To-DayKemp Alderman RF — Triple-A Jacksonville placed Alderman on the 7-day injured list Tuesday due to a left wrist injury, Michael Germanese of Roundtable.io reports.
- Day-To-DayThomas White SP — Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix said Sunday that White is recovering from "a bit of a shoulder thing," Kyle Sielaff of Marlins.tv reports.
- 10-Day-ILGriffin Conine LF — Conine (hamstring) appears to be a week or two away from beginning a rehab assignment, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports.
- 15-Day-ILAndrew Nardi RP — Marlins manager Clayton McCullough said that Nardi is expected to miss about three months after landing on the 15-day injured list Saturday due to a stress reaction in his left ribcage, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILJanson Junk SP — The Marlins placed Junk on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to right shin bone inflammation, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILEury Perez SP — The Marlins placed Perez on the 15-day injured list Friday, retroactive to Thursday, due to a right gracilis strain.
- 60-Day-ILRobby Snelling SP — Snelling underwent internal brace surgery Friday to repair a torn UCL in his left elbow.
- 60-Day-ILRonny Henriquez RP — The Marlins placed Henriquez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
- Day-To-DayDylan Crews CF — Crews was scratched from the lineup for Sunday's game against the Padres for unspecified reasons.
- Day-To-DayTyler Stuart SP — no
- Day-To-DayTyler Baum DH — Baum has not pitched this year due an undisclosed injury.
- Day-To-DayTravis Sykora SP — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.
- Day-To-DayJarlin Susana RP — Susana underwent surgery last week to repair a right lat tear, Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post reports.
- 15-Day-ILJake Irvin SP — The Nationals placed Irvin on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to a right shoulder strain.
- 60-Day-ILMax Kranick RP — The Nationals transferred Kranick (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Monday.
- 60-Day-ILDJ Herz SP — Herz (elbow) will throw to live hitters Friday at the Nationals' spring training facility in Florida, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
Washington isn't exactly whole either — Jake Irvin, DJ Herz, Trevor Williams, and Josiah Gray are all on the shelf, and Dylan Crews was a late scratch Sunday for unspecified reasons, which is worth watching when the lineup card drops. Still, the Nats are 31-29 and have actually scored runs lately, putting up 9 on the Padres on Saturday before closing the series with a 4-2 win.
The angle for Miami is simple: Alcantara has to find something, anything, resembling the guy he used to be. He's a popular trade-deadline name precisely because the front office knows the clock is ticking, and another 5-and-fly outing against a Nats lineup that's been swinging it isn't going to help his market. If he can give them 6 quality innings, the Marlins have a shot. If not, this is a layup spot for Cavalli to push his quality-start streak to 4.
The under at 8.5 (-113) is the line that catches the eye — Cavalli has been efficient, Miami's bats just got held to 1 run in two of their last three, and Nationals Park plays neutral. But if Alcantara coughs up another crooked number early, this thing goes over before the 5th. Pick your poison.