Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies

By Bush StaffUpdated 68d ago·2 min read
Miami MarlinsMIA(36-36)
Philadelphia PhilliesPHI(38-33)
07
FINAL
123456789RHE
MIA
000000000050
PHI
012020027101

First pitch is 6:40 PM ET, and the pitching gap on paper is laughable. Zack Wheeler (5-1, 2.22) — coming off a 6-inning, 1-run no-decision in Toronto and a near no-hitter against the Padres on June 4 — gets the ball for Philly. Miami counters with Ryan Gusto, who carries an 0-1, 6.00 ERA and threw 66 pitches over 4 scoreless innings in his last look.

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FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Marlins(36-36)
WLWWW
0
Phillies(38-33)
LWLWL
7
Best BetPhillies -214
Pregame

Wheeler at -200 is a steep price but a deserved one — 2.22 ERA against an 0-1, 6.00 opposing starter is the kind of mismatch the market is supposed to bake in. Miami's road profile and Gusto's track record don't justify a real fade here. Lay it and move on.

The vibes around the Phillies are not great. They've dropped 4 of their last 5, got blanked 6-0 by Milwaukee on Friday and 4-0 again on Sunday, and the outfield is a triage unit — Adolis Garcia just went on the 60-day IL with a shoulder pull and Johan Rojas is done for the season with a UCL tear. Wheeler hasn't lost since opening day-ish, but he can't drive in runs himself.

Miami Marlins
Ryan Gusto
(0-2)·5.06 ERA
Jun 10 vs Diamondbacks
ND
4.0IP
0ER
4K
1BB
66P
06/15 Lineup
Philadelphia Phillies
Zack Wheeler
(8-1)·2.03 ERA
Jun 9 @ Blue Jays
ND
6.0IP
1ER
5K
0BB
96P
06/15 Lineup
Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins
(36-36)
Jun 14W@ Pirates4-2
Jun 13L@ Pirates2-3
Jun 12W@ Pirates8-3
Jun 11Wvs Diamondbacks2-0
Jun 10Wvs Diamondbacks8-0
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
(38-33)
Jun 14L@ Brewers0-4
Jun 13W@ Brewers9-8
Jun 12L@ Brewers0-6
Jun 10W@ Blue Jays7-4
Jun 9L@ Blue Jays2-3

Meanwhile the Marlins keep finding ways. They just took 2 of 3 in Pittsburgh, swept Arizona before that with back-to-back shutouts at home, and have quietly clawed back to .500 at 36-36. The road record (per Bleacher Nation, 13-20 coming in) says they shouldn't be a problem in Philly. The way they're playing says otherwise.

Gusto is the variable that breaks everything. The right-hander has been a fill-in arm all year — Miami's rotation is held together with tape, with Eury Perez, Janson Junk, Robby Snelling, and Adam Mazur all on the IL. He kept the Diamondbacks off the board last time out but only went 4 innings on 66 pitches, so the Marlins bullpen is staring down a long night against a Philly lineup that, even slumping, isn't going to be no-hit twice in 12 days.

Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins
(11)
  • Day-To-DayThomas White (SP)White was diagnosed with a left shoulder capsular sprain Friday and is expected to miss the rest of the season, Isaac Azout of FishOnFirst.com reports.06/06
  • Day-To-DayKemp Alderman (RF)Triple-A Jacksonville placed Alderman on the 7-day injured list Tuesday due to a left wrist injury, Michael Germanese of Roundtable.io reports.05/25
  • 15-Day-ILJosh Ekness (RP)Marlins manager Clayton McCullough said Monday that Ekness is expected to miss approximately six weeks due to a right calf strain, Kyle Sielaff of Marlins.tv reports.06/02
  • 15-Day-ILJanson Junk (SP)The Marlins placed Junk on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to right shin bone inflammation, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.05/31
  • 15-Day-ILEury Perez (SP)The Marlins placed Perez on the 15-day injured list Friday, retroactive to Thursday, due to a right gracilis strain.05/29
  • OutJesus Tinoco (RP)The Marlins re-signed Tinoco (elbow) to a minor-league contract Jan. 5.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILGriffin Conine (LF)Conine (hamstring) appears to be a week or two away from beginning a rehab assignment, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports.06/01
  • 60-Day-ILAndrew Nardi (RP)The Marlins transferred Nardi (ribcage) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.06/01
  • 60-Day-ILRobby Snelling (SP)Snelling underwent internal brace surgery Friday to repair a torn UCL in his left elbow.05/22
  • 60-Day-ILRonny Henriquez (RP)The Marlins placed Henriquez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILAdam Mazur (SP)The Marlins placed Mazur (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/08
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
(8)
  • Day-To-DayAndrew Walling (RP)
  • Day-To-DayCarson DeMartini (SS)
  • Day-To-DayDaniel Robert (RP)Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayMark Kolozsvary (C)Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.05/08
  • paternitySteward Berroa (RF)The Phillies recalled Berroa from Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Friday.06/12
  • 15-Day-ILKyle Backhus (RP)Backhus (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Tuesday.06/09
  • OutJohan Rojas (CF)Rojas (suspension) will miss the remainder of the season after suffering a right elbow UCL tear that will require an internal brace procedure.06/10
  • 60-Day-ILAdolis Garcia (RF)Garcia was removed from Wednesday's game against the Blue Jays due to a pulled muscle near his right shoulder, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.06/12

The script writes itself: Wheeler does Wheeler things, the Phillies finally push a couple across against Gusto in the middle innings, and Citizens Bank Park exhales. The script can also get torn up if Miami's bats keep doing what they've done for a week and Philly's offense stays asleep. Monday night gets to decide which it is.

MLBMiami MarlinsPhiladelphia PhilliesPolymarketKalshiRyan GustoZack Wheeler