Miami and Minnesota are mirror images in the standings — both 19-23, both circling .500 from the wrong side, both leaning on patched-together rotations. The split on the bump is what gives this one its shape. Meyer is sitting on a 2.79 ERA through 8 starts and just blanked the Phillies for 7 one-hit innings on May 2. Woods Richardson is 0-5 with a 6.92, and he has given up at least 4 runs in 5 of his last 6 outings.
The market is reading this the way you would expect. The Twins are the slight home favorite on the moneyline at -108 on DK, but Pinnacle has Miami at -119 — meaning the fair line actually leans Marlins. DK's bettors are siding with Minnesota at 52% of tickets, which is a fade spot if you trust the Pinnacle number. Note the total is split: DK is up at 9, Pinnacle has 8.5, so there is genuine disagreement about how much offense to expect with these two pitchers.
Meyer's underlying stuff is the story. He has not allowed a home run in his last 5 starts, his HR/9 is down to 0.4 after sitting at 2.0 his first three years, and the breaking ball usage has spiked — 22 sweepers and 21 sliders in that Phillies gem. For a guy whose career has been one elbow scare after another, this is the version Miami drafted third overall and waited years to see.
- Day-To-DayOwen Caissie RF — Caissie (triceps) is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Twins, Kevin Barral of FishonFirst.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILGriffin Conine LF — Conine will undergo a left hamstring tendon excision next week, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILPete Fairbanks RP — Marlins manager Clayton McCullough said that he expects Fairbanks (hand) to return from the 15-day injured list Wednesday when first eligible, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILRonny Henriquez RP — The Marlins placed Henriquez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
- 60-Day-ILAdam Mazur SP — The Marlins placed Mazur (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
- OutJesus Tinoco RP — The Marlins re-signed Tinoco (elbow) to a minor-league contract Jan. 5.
- Day-To-DayCory Lewis SP — Twins head trainer Nick Paparesta said Thursday that Lewis (shoulder) is still a couple weeks away from throwing off a mound, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
- Day-To-DayJulian Merryweather RP — Merryweather (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the Twins' rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate Tuesday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports.
- Day-To-DayMatt Canterino SP — Canterino (shoulder) will be with the Twins in big-league spring training but isn't expected to pitch during camp as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
- Day-To-DayWalker Jenkins CF — Jenkins was diagnosed Monday with a Grade 2 AC joint sprain in his left shoulder and will be re-evaluated in 10 days, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.
- 15-Day-ILTaj Bradley SP — Bradley (4-1) earned the win Tuesday against the Nationals, allowing two runs on four hits and two walks while striking out eight over six innings.
- 15-Day-ILCody Laweryson RP — The Twins placed Laweryson (forearm) on the 15-day injured list Saturday, retroactive to Thursday.
- 15-Day-ILGarrett Acton RP — The Twins placed Acton on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with a right shoulder strain, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.
- 15-Day-ILCole Sands RP — Sands (shoulder) is beginning a rehab assignment with Triple-A St. Paul on Wednesday, Brandon Warne of Access Twins reports.
Woods Richardson's problem is specifically the second time through the order — his ERA the first time through is 1.20, then it balloons to 14.66 once hitters get a look. Twins Daily has been openly speculating he belongs in the bullpen, and only the IL list (Pablo Lopez, Taj Bradley, David Festa, Mick Abel all out) is keeping him in the rotation. Miami's lineup gets him a third time through, that game is over.
Both teams come in 3-2 over their last 5, so neither is rolling, neither is dead. The Twins are at home and have won 3 straight, which is the case for them. The Marlins have the better pitcher and a market that quietly agrees. Lean is Miami on the moneyline, and the under feels right if Meyer keeps doing what he has been doing.