Barstool Bush
Predictions

New York Mets at Toronto Blue Jays

By Bush StaffUpdated 52d ago·2 min read
New York MetsNYM(36-50)
Toronto Blue JaysTOR(40-46)
3—9
FINAL
123456789RHE
NYM
000000021350
TOR
10400040—9120

Freddy Peralta (5-6, 4.53 ERA) takes the ball for New York opposite Toronto's Braydon Fisher (3-3, 3.48 ERA) in Wednesday's series finale at Rogers Centre, first pitch 3:07 PM ET. Peralta arrived in New York this offseason as the headline acquisition — the guy who went 17-6 with a 2.70 ERA for Milwaukee in 2025 and was supposed to anchor a rotation built to compete. Instead he's been the Mets' biggest disappointment in a season full of them, posting a 7.47 ERA over his previous 6 starts before a semi-decent outing against the Cubs on June 25 (5.2 innings, 5 K, 0 earned runs). Two starts before that, the Phillies tagged him for 10 runs in 2.2 innings — the worst start of his nine-year career.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Mets(36-50)
WLLWL
3
Blue Jays(40-46)
LWLLL
9
Best BetBlue Jays -104
Pregame

The moneyline is essentially a coin flip at these prices — the Mets are slight -108 chalk while Toronto sits at -100. The Blue Jays get the home crowd on Canada Day at Rogers Centre, which provides a genuine lift, and they just snapped a brutal 6-game skid. Guerrero's back is the swing factor here; if he's out again, Toronto's offense loses its most dangerous bat and the home-field edge gets a lot thinner.

This is the rubber game of a 3-game set that's been a microcosm of where both clubs stand. Toronto snapped a 6-game losing streak by edging the Mets 2-1 on June 29, then handed it right back with a 3-0 shutout loss on June 30. The Blue Jays came into this series having just dropped six straight to Texas, a skid that erased a Wild Card position they were holding as recently as mid-June. They're 40-46 now and need every win they can manufacture before the deadline reshuffles the board around them.

New York Mets
Freddy Peralta
(5-8)·4.66 ERA
Jun 25 vs Cubs
ND
5.2IP
0ER
5K
1BB
98P
07/01 Lineup
Toronto Blue Jays
Braydon Fisher
(3-3)·3.45 ERA
Jun 17 @ Red Sox
ND
1.1IP
0ER
0K
2BB
21P
07/01 Lineup
New York Mets
New York Mets
(36-50)
Jun 30W@ Blue Jays3-0
Jun 29L@ Blue Jays1-2
Jun 28Lvs Phillies4-5
Jun 27Wvs Phillies6-2
Jun 26Lvs Phillies1-2
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays
(40-46)
Jun 30Lvs Mets0-3
Jun 29Wvs Mets2-1
Jun 28Lvs Rangers2-3
Jun 27Lvs Rangers4-7
Jun 26Lvs Rangers4-5

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the big question mark for Toronto after being scratched from the June 30 lineup with back tightness — the third time the back has flared this month. His status for Canada Day is unclear, and the Blue Jays can't afford to play without him. They already rank dead last in MLB in OPS with runners in scoring position, and that number is propped up in part by Guerrero. Fisher isn't a traditional starter either; his last logged outing was 1.1 innings on June 17 against Boston in what appears to have been another opener-style assignment. Toronto is piecing together a rotation that's missing Berrios (Tommy John, done for the year), Scherzer (back/side, needs rehab starts before returning), and Bowden Francis (elbow, 60-day IL).

New York Mets
New York Mets
(17)
  • Day-To-DayJackson Cluff (SS) — The Mets signed Cluff to a minor-league contract Friday with an invitation to spring training.06/30
  • Day-To-DayChristian Arroyo (2B) — The Mets re-signed Arroyo to a minor-league contract Tuesday.06/17
  • Day-To-DayMike Baumann (RP) — Baumann signed a minor-league deal with the Mets on Wednesday, Michael Mayer of MetsmerizedOnline.com reports.06/15
  • Day-To-DayBrandon Waddell (RP) — Waddell (shoulder) picked up the win after allowing three runs on four hits while striking out two across three innings during Saturday's game against Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre.06/01
  • Day-To-DayMike Tauchman (RF) — Tauchman (knee) is still rehabbing at the Mets' spring training complex and has yet to resume baseball activities, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports.05/18
  • Day-To-DayJoe Jacques (RP) — The Mets signed Jacques to a minor-league contract Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayKevin Herget (RP) — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayJose Rojas (3B) — Triple-A Salt Lake placed Rojas on its COVID-19 injured list Sunday, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.05/08
  • 10-Day-ILMarcus Semien (2B) — Semien was diagnosed Monday with a Grade 3 left hip flexor strain and is expected to be out for 4-to-6 weeks, at a minimum, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.06/29
  • OutRobert Stock (RP) — Stock (shoulder) said Sunday that he'll require surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome and could be sidelined for the remainder of the season, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILLuis Robert Jr. (CF) — Robert (back) will start a rehab assignment with Triple-A Syracuse on Tuesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.06/29
  • 60-Day-ILClay Holmes (SP) — Holmes (fibula) has been throwing on flat ground and is expected to progress to mound work next week, Chelsea Janes of SNY.tv reports.06/28
  • 60-Day-ILJorge Polanco (1B) — Polanco (Achilles) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Syracuse on Saturday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.06/27
  • 60-Day-ILDedniel Nunez (RP) — Nunez (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A St. Lucie on Thursday, Michael Mayer of MetsmerizedOnline.com reports.06/25
  • 60-Day-ILReed Garrett (RP) — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILJustin Hagenman (RP) — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILTylor Megill (SP) — The Mets placed Megill (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.05/08
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays
(16)
  • Day-To-DayVladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B) — Guerrero was scratched from the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Mets due to back tightness.06/30
  • Day-To-DayArjun Nimmala (SS) — The Blue Jays promoted Nimmala from High-A Vancouver to Double-A New Hampshire on Sunday.06/29
  • Day-To-DayRJ Schreck (LF) — Schreck (hand) has gone 2-for-8 with a home run, two RBI and an additional run in two games for Triple-A Buffalo since being reinstated from the 7-day injured list Friday.06/27
  • Day-To-DayGeovanny Jesus Planchart (C) — no05/08
  • Day-To-DayChay Yeager (RP) — Yeager will undergo season-ending UCL surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/08
  • 10-Day-ILAddison Barger (RF) — Blue Jays manager John Schneider said Monday that Barger (elbow) will be shut down for a couple of weeks after a recent MRI revealed a stress reaction in his back, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.06/29
  • 10-Day-ILJesus Sanchez (RF) — The Blue Jays placed Sanchez on the 10-day injured list Saturday with a right ankle sprain.06/27
  • 10-Day-ILLenyn Sosa (2B) — Sosa (wrist) will begin a rehab assignment Monday with the Blue Jays' Arizona Complex League affiliate, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports.06/22
  • 15-Day-ILMax Scherzer (SP) — Manager John Schneider said Tuesday that Scherzer (back/side) will likely make a few rehab starts at Triple-A Buffalo to ramp up before returning from the injured list, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports.07/01
  • developmental listFernando Perez (P)
  • 60-Day-ILYimi Garcia (RP) — Blue Jays manager John Schneider said Monday that Garcia (elbow/neck/biceps) has resumed playing catch, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports.06/29
  • 60-Day-ILAnthony Santander (RF) — Santander (shoulder) could resume hitting within the next week, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.06/18
  • 60-Day-ILJoe Mantiply (RP) — Mantiply will undergo arthroscopic surgery to repair some damage in his left knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.06/04
  • 60-Day-ILJose Berrios (SP) — Blue Jays manager John Schneider said that Berrios underwent full Tommy John surgery Wednesday in addition to having a stress fracture repaired, Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reports.05/27
  • 60-Day-ILCody Ponce (SP) — Ponce underwent surgery Friday to repair the ACL in his right knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILBowden Francis (SP) — The Blue Jays placed Francis (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/08

New York's injury list isn't pretty either. Marcus Semien is on the 10-day IL with a Grade 3 hip flexor strain — minimum 4-to-6 weeks — and Luis Robert Jr. is still working through a rehab assignment after missing months with a back issue. But the louder story in the Mets' dugout is accountability. A former coach recently went public questioning the clubhouse culture around Juan Soto, and Soto himself drew attention in this series for misplaying a ball into a Little League home run on the turf at Rogers Centre. He's hitting .301 with 17 home runs on the season, so the production is there — but on a 36-50 team with the second-highest payroll in baseball, someone has to explain what happened. Peralta's name has already surfaced in trade deadline chatter, which either means the front office is being smart about an underperforming asset or the white flag is already visible on the horizon. Either way, Canada Day or not, this game counts.

Sources

MLBNew York MetsToronto Blue JaysPolymarketKalshiFreddy PeraltaBraydon Fisher