New York rolls into Chase Field at 15-23 and somehow still found a way to snap a 12-game losing streak this week before promptly losing Francisco Lindor to a calf strain on the bases. Arizona is 17-20 and has dropped four of its last five. Nobody is feeling great about themselves here, which is exactly the kind of game where the team with the better pitcher tends to win.
That better pitcher, by a country mile on paper, is Clay Holmes. The converted reliever entered May atop the National League ERA leaderboard and SNY has been running 'bona fide ace' takes about him for a couple of weeks now. He is 4-2 with a 1.69 and the Mets are basically using him to plug the dam while the rest of the rotation figures itself out.
Merrill Kelly, on the other hand, is a problem Arizona has not solved. He opened 2026 on the IL with intercostal nerve irritation, came back on a weird timeline, and through four starts has a 9.95 ERA with six homers allowed in 19 innings. SI's diagnosis is the boring one: command. Kelly is throwing strikes around 55% of the time, well below his career norm, and he has said as much himself. His last outing against the Cubs sharpened up a bit and still ended with six runs on the board.
- Day-To-DayJoe Jacques RP — The Mets signed Jacques to a minor-league contract Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayNate Lavender RP — Lavender (elbow) cleared outright waivers Wednesday and was returned to the Mets.
- Day-To-DayKevin Herget RP — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
- Day-To-DayNick Burdi RP — The Red Sox reinstated Burdi (hip) from the injured list Saturday and optioned him to Triple-A Worcester.
- Day-To-DayJose Rojas 3B — Triple-A Salt Lake placed Rojas on its COVID-19 injured list Sunday, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.
- 10-Day-ILJorge Polanco 1B — Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said last Friday that Polanco (wrist/Achilles) has resumed performing baseball activities but is considered week-to-week in his recovery from a pair of injuries, SNY.tv reports.
- 10-Day-ILJared Young 1B — The Mets placed Young on the 10-day injured list Wednesday, retroactive to Monday, due to a meniscus tear in his left knee.
- 10-Day-ILRonny Mauricio SS — The Mets placed Mauricio (thumb) on the 10-day injured list Sunday.
- Day-To-DayKetel Marte 2B — Marte is not in the lineup for Friday's game against the Cubs.
- Day-To-DayKyle Amendt RP — Amendt was invited to major-league spring training by the Diamondbacks, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
- 10-Day-ILCarlos Santana 1B — Santana (thigh) could rejoin the Diamondbacks on Friday, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILCorbin Burnes SP — Burnes (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, Jose M. Romero of the Arizona Republic reports.
- 60-Day-ILCristian Mena RP — The Diamondbacks placed Mena (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
- 60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar LF — Lawlar is doing as much baseball activity as possible without using his fractured right wrist, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
- 60-Day-ILBlake Walston SP — Arizona placed Walston (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
- 60-Day-ILAndrew Saalfrank RP — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.
The Diamondbacks also might be without Ketel Marte, who got scratched from Friday's lineup with an illness and is in the middle of a 2-for-26 skid that has his slash line at .221/.277/.374. Lose Marte and you're asking Corbin Carroll, who is also in a funk, to carry an offense that has not been carrying anything lately. Carlos Santana is targeted to come off the IL Friday, which would help, but it doesn't change who's on the mound.
The market reflects all of this. The Mets are favored on the road at -120, the run line sits at -1.5 (+143), and the total is 9.5 with the under getting the juice. The EV column is negative across every option, so this isn't a screaming bet, but the public is clearly siding with Holmes — 94% of moneyline handle is on New York. Hard to argue when one guy has a 1.69 and the other has a 9.95. Just don't act surprised when Kelly remembers he's a big leaguer for six innings and the under cashes anyway.