That better pitcher, by a country mile on paper, is Clay Holmes. The converted reliever entered May atop the National League ERA leaderboard and SNY has been running 'bona fide ace' takes about him for a couple of weeks now. He is 4-2 with a 1.69 and the Mets are basically using him to plug the dam while the rest of the rotation figures itself out.
Merrill Kelly, on the other hand, is a problem Arizona has not solved. He opened 2026 on the IL with intercostal nerve irritation, came back on a weird timeline, and through four starts has a 9.95 ERA with six homers allowed in 19 innings. SI's diagnosis is the boring one: command. Kelly is throwing strikes around 55% of the time, well below his career norm, and he has said as much himself. His last outing against the Cubs sharpened up a bit and still ended with six runs on the board.
- Day-To-DayJoe Jacques (RP) — The Mets signed Jacques to a minor-league contract Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayNate Lavender (RP) — Lavender (elbow) cleared outright waivers Wednesday and was returned to the Mets.05/08
- Day-To-DayKevin Herget (RP) — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayNick Burdi (RP) — The Red Sox reinstated Burdi (hip) from the injured list Saturday and optioned him to Triple-A Worcester.05/08
- Day-To-DayJose Rojas (3B) — Triple-A Salt Lake placed Rojas on its COVID-19 injured list Sunday, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILJorge Polanco (1B) — Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said last Friday that Polanco (wrist/Achilles) has resumed performing baseball activities but is considered week-to-week in his recovery from a pair of injuries, SNY.tv reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILJared Young (1B) — The Mets placed Young on the 10-day injured list Wednesday, retroactive to Monday, due to a meniscus tear in his left knee.05/08
- 10-Day-ILRonny Mauricio (SS) — The Mets placed Mauricio (thumb) on the 10-day injured list Sunday.05/08
- 10-Day-ILLuis Robert Jr. (CF) — The Mets placed Robert on the 10-day injured list Thursday with a lumbar spine disc herniation.05/08
- 10-Day-ILFrancisco Lindor (SS) — Lindor (calf) will wear a boot for the next week and remain shut down for at least three weeks, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILA.J. Minter (RP) — The Mets pulled Minter (lat) from his rehab assignment with Triple-A Syracuse on Wednesday due to left hip discomfort, Abbey Mastracco of the New York Daily News reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILKodai Senga (SP) — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters that Senga (back) played catch Wednesday, and the right-hander is progressing in his recovery, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILJoey Gerber (RP) — Gerber (finger) struck out two and allowed two hits over a scoreless inning during his rehab appearance Tuesday at Triple-A Syracuse.05/08
- OutGrae Kessinger (3B) — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said Sunday that Kessinger sustained "a pretty significant injury" to his left hamstring and will need at least 8-12 weeks to recover, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports.05/08
- OutMike Tauchman (RF) — Tauchman underwent surgery Thursday to repair the torn meniscus in his left knee, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.05/08
- OutRobert Stock (RP) — Stock (shoulder) said Sunday that he'll require surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome and could be sidelined for the remainder of the season, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILReed Garrett (RP) — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILDedniel Nunez (RP) — The Mets placed Nunez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJustin Hagenman (RP) — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.05/08
- 60-Day-ILTylor Megill (SP) — The Mets placed Megill (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayKetel Marte (2B) — Marte is not in the lineup for Friday's game against the Cubs.05/09
- Day-To-DayKyle Amendt (RP) — Amendt was invited to major-league spring training by the Diamondbacks, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILCarlos Santana (1B) — Santana (thigh) could rejoin the Diamondbacks on Friday, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports.05/08
- OutDerek Law (RP) — Law (forearm) signed a minor-league contract with the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, Aaron Hughes of SI.com reports.05/08
- OutTommy Henry (RP) — The Diamondbacks re-signed Henry (elbow) to a minor-league contract Monday.05/08
- OutA.J. Vukovich (CF) — Vukovich is slashing .263/.333/.485 with 24 home runs, 20 steals on 29 attempts and a 28.4 percent strikeout rate in 115 games for Double-A Amarillo.05/08
- 60-Day-ILCorbin Burnes (SP) — Burnes (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, Jose M. Romero of the Arizona Republic reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILCristian Mena (RP) — The Diamondbacks placed Mena (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar (LF) — Lawlar is doing as much baseball activity as possible without using his fractured right wrist, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILBlake Walston (SP) — Arizona placed Walston (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILAndrew Saalfrank (RP) — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILA.J. Puk (RP) — Puk (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday and provided an update following the activity, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILPavin Smith (1B) — Smith (elbow) will take dry swings next week, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJustin Martinez (RP) — Martinez (elbow) is throwing from up to 120 feet on flat ground, MLB.com reports.05/08
The Diamondbacks also might be without Ketel Marte, who got scratched from Friday's lineup with an illness and is in the middle of a 2-for-26 skid that has his slash line at .221/.277/.374. Lose Marte and you're asking Corbin Carroll, who is also in a funk, to carry an offense that has not been carrying anything lately. Carlos Santana is targeted to come off the IL Friday, which would help, but it doesn't change who's on the mound.
The market reflects all of this. The Mets are favored on the road at -120, the run line sits at -1.5 (+143), and the total is 9.5 with the under getting the juice. The EV column is negative across every option, so this isn't a screaming bet, but the public is clearly siding with Holmes — 94% of moneyline handle is on New York. Hard to argue when one guy has a 1.69 and the other has a 9.95. Just don't act surprised when Kelly remembers he's a big leaguer for six innings and the under cashes anyway.