Eduardo Rodriguez, on the other hand, is in a real groove. He carved up the Pirates on May 5 for 7 shutout innings of 2-hit ball with 7 strikeouts in a 9-0 Arizona win — Rodriguez's first quality start in a while and only the third 7-inning outing of his D-backs career. He's 3-0 with a 2.50 ERA, and Arizona is 6-1 against the spread when he starts this year. The lefty is the most stable thing on either roster right now.
The injury column is where this game really tilts. Francisco Lindor is in a boot and shut down for at least 3 weeks, Jorge Polanco is week-to-week, Luis Robert Jr. has a herniated disc, and the bullpen is stitched together with minor-league deals and rehab assignments. Arizona has its own list — Corbin Burnes still rehabbing, Justin Martinez throwing pens, Pavin Smith and Jordan Lawlar both on the 60-day — but the Mets' situation is the kind that bleeds into every late inning.
- Day-To-DayJoe Jacques (RP) — The Mets signed Jacques to a minor-league contract Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayNate Lavender (RP) — Lavender (elbow) cleared outright waivers Wednesday and was returned to the Mets.05/08
- Day-To-DayKevin Herget (RP) — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayNick Burdi (RP) — The Red Sox reinstated Burdi (hip) from the injured list Saturday and optioned him to Triple-A Worcester.05/08
- Day-To-DayJose Rojas (3B) — Triple-A Salt Lake placed Rojas on its COVID-19 injured list Sunday, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILJorge Polanco (1B) — Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said last Friday that Polanco (wrist/Achilles) has resumed performing baseball activities but is considered week-to-week in his recovery from a pair of injuries, SNY.tv reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILJared Young (1B) — The Mets placed Young on the 10-day injured list Wednesday, retroactive to Monday, due to a meniscus tear in his left knee.05/08
- 10-Day-ILRonny Mauricio (SS) — The Mets placed Mauricio (thumb) on the 10-day injured list Sunday.05/08
- 10-Day-ILLuis Robert Jr. (CF) — The Mets placed Robert on the 10-day injured list Thursday with a lumbar spine disc herniation.05/08
- 10-Day-ILFrancisco Lindor (SS) — Lindor (calf) will wear a boot for the next week and remain shut down for at least three weeks, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILA.J. Minter (RP) — The Mets pulled Minter (lat) from his rehab assignment with Triple-A Syracuse on Wednesday due to left hip discomfort, Abbey Mastracco of the New York Daily News reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILKodai Senga (SP) — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters that Senga (back) played catch Wednesday, and the right-hander is progressing in his recovery, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILJoey Gerber (RP) — Gerber (finger) struck out two and allowed two hits over a scoreless inning during his rehab appearance Tuesday at Triple-A Syracuse.05/08
- OutGrae Kessinger (3B) — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said Sunday that Kessinger sustained "a pretty significant injury" to his left hamstring and will need at least 8-12 weeks to recover, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports.05/08
- OutMike Tauchman (RF) — Tauchman underwent surgery Thursday to repair the torn meniscus in his left knee, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.05/08
- OutRobert Stock (RP) — Stock (shoulder) said Sunday that he'll require surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome and could be sidelined for the remainder of the season, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILReed Garrett (RP) — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILDedniel Nunez (RP) — The Mets placed Nunez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJustin Hagenman (RP) — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.05/08
- 60-Day-ILTylor Megill (SP) — The Mets placed Megill (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayKyle Amendt (RP) — Amendt was invited to major-league spring training by the Diamondbacks, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILCarlos Santana (1B) — Santana (thigh) could rejoin the Diamondbacks on Friday, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports.05/08
- OutDerek Law (RP) — Law (forearm) signed a minor-league contract with the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, Aaron Hughes of SI.com reports.05/08
- OutTommy Henry (RP) — The Diamondbacks re-signed Henry (elbow) to a minor-league contract Monday.05/08
- OutA.J. Vukovich (CF) — Vukovich is slashing .263/.333/.485 with 24 home runs, 20 steals on 29 attempts and a 28.4 percent strikeout rate in 115 games for Double-A Amarillo.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJustin Martinez (RP) — Martinez (elbow) tossed a bullpen session Friday, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.05/09
- 60-Day-ILCorbin Burnes (SP) — Burnes (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, Jose M. Romero of the Arizona Republic reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILCristian Mena (RP) — The Diamondbacks placed Mena (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar (LF) — Lawlar is doing as much baseball activity as possible without using his fractured right wrist, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILBlake Walston (SP) — Arizona placed Walston (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILAndrew Saalfrank (RP) — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILA.J. Puk (RP) — Puk (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday and provided an update following the activity, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILPavin Smith (1B) — Smith (elbow) will take dry swings next week, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.05/08
The market sees this as basically a coin flip on the moneyline, with Pinnacle pricing the Mets at -103 and the D-backs at -107. The line discrepancy on the total (Pinnacle 8.5, DK 9.5) is the more interesting tell — books don't agree on whether a bullpen game in the desert sun stays under 9. If you trust Rodriguez to go 6-plus and the Arizona pen to clean up, the under at the lower number is the bet. If you think the Mets' opener strategy gets exposed early, you take the over and don't look back.
Prediction: not officially making one, but the vibes are pretty obvious. A scuffling, banged-up Mets team running a parade of relievers against a lefty who's locked in is the exact spot Arizona is supposed to win. If the Mets steal this one, it's a real heartbeat-check moment for a season that's getting away from them fast.