New York has reportedly dropped 17 of its last 20, which is the kind of stretch that gets people fired and dugouts rearranged. The series in Arizona is tied 1-1, with the rubber match Sunday afternoon at Chase. Whoever wins it walks away with the series — and given which side is more desperate for a feel-good moment, that probably matters more to the Mets than the Diamondbacks.
About this pitching matchup: Huascar Brazoban is technically 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA, but the wrinkle is that the Mets have been rolling him out as an opener because the rotation has been a disaster. He went one inning in Colorado on May 4 and handed it to David Peterson. So when you see his name on the marquee, just know New York is bullpenning this thing — which, given the bullpen injury list below, is its own adventure.
Eduardo Rodriguez, on the other hand, is in a real groove. He carved up the Pirates on May 5 for 7 shutout innings of 2-hit ball with 7 strikeouts in a 9-0 Arizona win — Rodriguez's first quality start in a while and only the third 7-inning outing of his D-backs career. He's 3-0 with a 2.50 ERA, and Arizona is 6-1 against the spread when he starts this year. The lefty is the most stable thing on either roster right now.
The injury column is where this game really tilts. Francisco Lindor is in a boot and shut down for at least 3 weeks, Jorge Polanco is week-to-week, Luis Robert Jr. has a herniated disc, and the bullpen is stitched together with minor-league deals and rehab assignments. Arizona has its own list — Corbin Burnes still rehabbing, Justin Martinez throwing pens, Pavin Smith and Jordan Lawlar both on the 60-day — but the Mets' situation is the kind that bleeds into every late inning.
- Day-To-DayJoe Jacques RP — The Mets signed Jacques to a minor-league contract Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayNate Lavender RP — Lavender (elbow) cleared outright waivers Wednesday and was returned to the Mets.
- Day-To-DayKevin Herget RP — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
- Day-To-DayNick Burdi RP — The Red Sox reinstated Burdi (hip) from the injured list Saturday and optioned him to Triple-A Worcester.
- Day-To-DayJose Rojas 3B — Triple-A Salt Lake placed Rojas on its COVID-19 injured list Sunday, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.
- 10-Day-ILJorge Polanco 1B — Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said last Friday that Polanco (wrist/Achilles) has resumed performing baseball activities but is considered week-to-week in his recovery from a pair of injuries, SNY.tv reports.
- 10-Day-ILJared Young 1B — The Mets placed Young on the 10-day injured list Wednesday, retroactive to Monday, due to a meniscus tear in his left knee.
- 10-Day-ILRonny Mauricio SS — The Mets placed Mauricio (thumb) on the 10-day injured list Sunday.
- Day-To-DayKyle Amendt RP — Amendt was invited to major-league spring training by the Diamondbacks, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
- 10-Day-ILCarlos Santana 1B — Santana (thigh) could rejoin the Diamondbacks on Friday, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILJustin Martinez RP — Martinez (elbow) tossed a bullpen session Friday, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.
- 60-Day-ILCorbin Burnes SP — Burnes (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, Jose M. Romero of the Arizona Republic reports.
- 60-Day-ILCristian Mena RP — The Diamondbacks placed Mena (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
- 60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar LF — Lawlar is doing as much baseball activity as possible without using his fractured right wrist, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
- 60-Day-ILBlake Walston SP — Arizona placed Walston (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
- 60-Day-ILAndrew Saalfrank RP — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.
The market sees this as basically a coin flip on the moneyline, with Pinnacle pricing the Mets at -103 and the D-backs at -107. The line discrepancy on the total (Pinnacle 8.5, DK 9.5) is the more interesting tell — books don't agree on whether a bullpen game in the desert sun stays under 9. If you trust Rodriguez to go 6-plus and the Arizona pen to clean up, the under at the lower number is the bet. If you think the Mets' opener strategy gets exposed early, you take the over and don't look back.
Prediction: not officially making one, but the vibes are pretty obvious. A scuffling, banged-up Mets team running a parade of relievers against a lefty who's locked in is the exact spot Arizona is supposed to win. If the Mets steal this one, it's a real heartbeat-check moment for a season that's getting away from them fast.