That's the tension here: a desperate buyer trying to integrate new faces immediately against a team with nothing left to play for but pride and reps for the kids. The board treats Cleveland as the clear favorite, and given where each roster is trending, that's not a hard read.
Look at the shape of each team's last five and the gap makes sense. New York dropped 4 of 5 in a home series against Miami, including a shutout, and hasn't strung together any real momentum in weeks. Cleveland's stretch is uglier on the surface — losers of 8 of their last 11 — but two of those losses were track-meet type games against Arizona sandwiched around a 5-0 shutout of their own, and the new pieces should sharpen a lineup that was already good enough to hold a playoff spot.
The injury gap tells the same story from a different angle. Cleveland's list is basically empty — Shawn Armstrong is already back off the IL. New York's is a mess: two bullpen arms down, a middle-of-the-order bat in Vientos out, and Soto, the $765 million anchor of this whole roster, not walking through that clubhouse door anytime soon. Cantillo gets to attack a lineup that's missing its two best hitters, which is about as favorable a spot as a starter gets in August.