First pitch is 4:10 PM ET at Petco, with Brazobán (3-1, 2.25) handling the first inning or two before the Mets hand it to a bulk arm — Sean Manaea is the expected long man behind him. Vásquez (5-3, 3.31) goes the traditional route for San Diego and is coming off a 5-inning, 2-run no-decision in Philly.
The pitching plan is why this total sits at just 5.5. Brazobán has been one of the Mets' steadiest relief arms all year, and Manaea behind him gives New York a second look from the left side. Vásquez has quietly been the Padres' most reliable starter with so much of the rotation on the shelf.
- Day-To-DayBrandon Waddell RP — Waddell (shoulder) picked up the win after allowing three runs on four hits while striking out two across three innings during Saturday's game against Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre.
- Day-To-DayAdbert Alzolay RP — The Mets reassigned Alzolay to minor-league camp Tuesday.
- Day-To-DayMike Tauchman RF — Tauchman (knee) is still rehabbing at the Mets' spring training complex and has yet to resume baseball activities, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports.
- Day-To-DayGrae Kessinger 3B — no
- Day-To-DayJoe Jacques RP — The Mets signed Jacques to a minor-league contract Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayKevin Herget RP — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
- Day-To-DayJose Rojas 3B — Triple-A Salt Lake placed Rojas on its COVID-19 injured list Sunday, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.
- 10-Day-ILJorge Polanco 1B — The Mets announced Saturday that Polanco's rehab assignment has been halted due to ankle soreness.
- Day-To-DayBlake Hunt C — Hunt is dealing with an oblique injury and has been shut down from activity, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
- 7-Day ILJake Cronenworth 2B — Cronenworth (concussion) has been running, playing catch and taking light swings in the batting cage, but he remains without a definitive timetable for a return, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union Tribune reports.
- 10-Day-ILLuis Campusano C — Campusano (toe) has been catching bullpens and is swinging pain-free, per MLB.com.
- 15-Day-ILJeremiah Estrada RP — Estrada (2-2) picked up the loss after giving up the eventual game-winning run in a 3-2 loss to Philadelphia on Tuesday.
- 15-Day-ILGerman Marquez SP — Marquez (forearm) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A El Paso on Tuesday.
- 15-Day-ILMatt Waldron SP — Waldron (forearm) could take on a bullpen role when he returns from the 15-day injured list, MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILRamon Laureano LF — Laureano underwent surgery Friday to repair his torn right labrum, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
- 60-Day-ILNick Pivetta SP — The Padres transferred Pivetta (forearm) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
And there is a lot on the shelf. San Diego is without Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Nick Pivetta, German Marquez and Matt Waldron from the rotation, plus Jake Cronenworth (concussion) and Ramon Laureano (post-surgery) from the lineup. The Mets counter with their own disaster reel: Francisco Lindor, Francisco Alvarez, Jorge Polanco, Tyrone Taylor and Kodai Senga are all working back from IL stints, with Polanco's rehab paused this weekend due to ankle soreness.
The Padres snapped a 6-game skid Saturday on Freddy Fermin's 2-run shot off Austin Warren in the 7th, a 3-2 win that flipped a series the Mets had opened by shutting them out 5-0. San Diego sits 33-30 and is trying to keep pace in the NL West; the Mets are 28-36 and have been losing road games faster than they can replace injured regulars.
The market is screaming for the Padres — moneyline pricing implies roughly 88% — and frankly the matchup backs it up. Brazobán-then-bulk against a lefty-stacked Padres lineup at Petco is a tough sell for road bettors, and with the total at 5.5 the game projects as a grinder. If you want a sweat, the over has some appeal: both bullpens have been worked, and any early traffic against the openers could blow the number out in a hurry.