Barstool Bush
Predictions

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies

By Bush StaffUpdated 65d ago·2 min read
New York MetsNYM(33-41)
Philadelphia PhilliesPHI(40-34)
6—4
FINAL
123456789RHE
NYM
2010003006112
PHI
101100001481

First pitch is 6:40 PM ET in South Philly, and this one's all about whether two starters with matching question marks can give their bullpens a break. Sean Manaea (1-2, 4.78) makes his second official start of the year after a clean 6-inning, 2-run outing against Atlanta on June 13. Aaron Nola (3-4, 5.86) walks in carrying a year of bad vibes and a fastball hitters are slugging like batting practice.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Mets(33-41)
WLLWL
6
Phillies(40-34)
LWWLW
4
Best BetMets +104
Pregame

Getting the Mets at plus money against a guy with a 5.86 ERA who couldn't get through 5 his last time out is the kind of price you don't usually see in this matchup. New York is the bad team here but they're the team with the better starter tonight, and the market's pricing this almost like a coin flip for a reason. Take the value with the visitors.

Nola's number is the headline. A 5.86 ERA through 13 starts is not a blip — it's a trend, and his last time out he didn't make it through the 5th against the Brewers (4.2 IP, 3 ER, 85 pitches). Heavy reported his heater is getting hammered to the tune of a .407 average, one of the worst marks in the league on a qualifying pitch. The Mets just dropped 9 on Cincinnati on Tuesday, so the bats are awake heading into a get-right opportunity.

New York Mets
Sean Manaea
(1-3)·4.71 ERA
Jun 13 vs Braves
L
6.0IP
2ER
6K
0BB
84P
06/18 Lineup
Philadelphia Phillies
Aaron Nola
(3-5)·6.04 ERA
Jun 13 @ Brewers
ND
4.2IP
3ER
3K
2BB
85P
06/18 Lineup
New York Mets
New York Mets
(33-41)
Jun 17W@ Reds9-1
Jun 16L@ Reds3-5
Jun 15L@ Reds0-12
Jun 14Wvs Braves8-1
Jun 13Lvs Braves1-3
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
(40-34)
Jun 17Lvs Marlins4-12
Jun 16Wvs Marlins8-2
Jun 15Wvs Marlins7-0
Jun 14L@ Brewers0-4
Jun 13W@ Brewers9-8

New York's last 5 are a mess — they got curb-stomped 12-0 in Cincinnati, lost 5-3 the next day, then ripped off the 9-1 win to leave town with something. Philly's mirror image: 4 wins in 5 before Wednesday's 12-4 faceplant to the Marlins ended a tidy little stretch. Both clubs are walking into this one off ugly losses with momentum nowhere to be found.

The injury sheet matters more for the Mets, who are still missing Francisco Lindor (calf, working toward a rehab assignment), Jorge Polanco, Luis Robert Jr., Tyrone Taylor, and a sizable chunk of the bullpen with Clay Holmes, Reed Garrett, Dedniel Nunez, and Tylor Megill all on the 60-day IL. Philadelphia's down Adolis Garcia for the year-ish and lost Johan Rojas to a UCL tear, but the lineup is closer to whole.

New York Mets
New York Mets
(19)
  • Day-To-DayChristian Arroyo (2B) — The Mets re-signed Arroyo to a minor-league contract Tuesday.06/17
  • Day-To-DayRyan Lambert (RP) — Triple-A Syracuse placed Lambert on the 7-day injured list June 4 due to an unspecified injury.06/16
  • Day-To-DayMike Baumann (RP) — Baumann signed a minor-league deal with the Mets on Wednesday, Michael Mayer of MetsmerizedOnline.com reports.06/15
  • Day-To-DayBrandon Waddell (RP) — Waddell (shoulder) picked up the win after allowing three runs on four hits while striking out two across three innings during Saturday's game against Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre.06/01
  • Day-To-DayMike Tauchman (RF) — Tauchman (knee) is still rehabbing at the Mets' spring training complex and has yet to resume baseball activities, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports.05/18
  • Day-To-DayJoe Jacques (RP) — The Mets signed Jacques to a minor-league contract Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayKevin Herget (RP) — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayJose Rojas (3B) — Triple-A Salt Lake placed Rojas on its COVID-19 injured list Sunday, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.05/08
  • 10-Day-ILFrancisco Lindor (SS) — Lindor (calf) played three innings in a simulated game Friday, and he could begin an official rehab assignment Monday, MLB.com reports.06/16
  • 10-Day-ILRonny Mauricio (SS) — Mauricio (thumb) could begin a rehab assignment later this week, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.06/15
  • 10-Day-ILTyrone Taylor (CF) — Taylor (hip) began running this past week but has yet to resume full baseball activities, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports.06/08
  • 15-Day-ILChristian Scott (SP) — The Mets placed Scott on the 15-day injured list Monday due to a right hip impingement.06/15
  • 60-Day-ILJorge Polanco (1B) — An MRI on Polanco's left ankle/Achilles tendon came back negative Tuesday, Andrew Tredinnick of The Bergen Record reports.06/15
  • 60-Day-ILLuis Robert Jr. (CF) — Robert (spine) said Thursday that his back has been responding better in recent days and he expects to return before the end of this season, Chelsea Janes of SNY.tv reports.06/11
  • 60-Day-ILClay Holmes (SP) — The Mets transferred Holmes (fibula) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.05/19
  • 60-Day-ILReed Garrett (RP) — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILDedniel Nunez (RP) — The Mets placed Nunez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILJustin Hagenman (RP) — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILTylor Megill (SP) — The Mets placed Megill (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.05/08
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
(8)
  • Day-To-DayAndrew Walling (RP)
  • Day-To-DayCarson DeMartini (SS)
  • Day-To-DayDaniel Robert (RP) — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayMark Kolozsvary (C) — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.05/08
  • 15-Day-ILBrad Keller (RP) — Keller picked up the save Wednesday against the Athletics, allowing no runs on one hit and two walks in the ninth inning. He struck out one.06/16
  • 15-Day-ILKyle Backhus (RP) — Backhus (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Tuesday.06/09
  • OutJohan Rojas (CF) — Rojas (suspension) will miss the remainder of the season after suffering a right elbow UCL tear that will require an internal brace procedure.06/10
  • 60-Day-ILAdolis Garcia (RF) — Garcia was removed from Wednesday's game against the Blue Jays due to a pulled muscle near his right shoulder, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.06/12

The stylistic read: Manaea's command was sharp in his first start back (6 K, 0 BB) and the Phillies have been streaky against lefties all year. Nola, meanwhile, gives a slumping Mets offense a launching pad if they can get to him early — he's been walking guys he didn't used to walk and giving up the kind of contact that fixes a slump in a hurry. Whoever's bullpen gets to stay seated longer probably wins this thing.

Sources

MLBNew York MetsPhiladelphia PhilliesPolymarketKalshiSean ManaeaAaron Nola