The Phillies are one of baseball's hottest teams since April; the Mets just fired their manager and can't stop the bleeding. This series opener is about as lopsided on paper as it gets.
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Best BetPhillies
Philadelphia's the clear play here — a team playing .646 ball since late April against a Mets club that just fired its manager and is 11 games under .500. New York's lineup is thin without Semien and Vientos, and Scott alone isn't enough to flip a moneyline against a Phillies club rolling with this much momentum.
Mets
+Christian Scott dealing since return from elbow surgery
+Won 2 of first 5 in this stretch before skid
−40-57, fired manager in late June
−Semien, Vientos, Bichette all out or limited
Phillies
+54-43, 42-23 under Mattingly since April 28
+Best rotation ERA in majors over that span
−Blown out 5-11 by Reds just last week
−Rojas and Garcia lost for extended stretches, thin outfield depth
Christian Scott (2-1, 3.17 ERA) gets the ball for New York, and Philadelphia hasn't named its starter yet for Thursday's 7:10 PM ET opener at Citi Field. Scott's been a legit bright spot in an otherwise miserable Mets season, coming back strong from Tommy John surgery, and he was sharp in his last outing against Kansas City: 5 shutout innings, 5 strikeouts, just 3 hits allowed.
New York fired Carlos Mendoza back in late June with the club buried at 34-47, and interim skipper Andy Green hasn't been able to turn the tide — the Mets dropped 3 straight to the Red Sox to close last week and now sit at 40-57. The lineup is missing pieces everywhere: Marcus Semien isn't expected back until close to August, Mark Vientos just went down with a fractured hand, and Bo Bichette is banged up too. It's a rough stretch to be walking into Philadelphia.
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NYM Mets
PHI Phillies
The Phillies, meanwhile, have been one of the best stories in baseball since bottoming out. Philly fired Rob Thomson in late April after a 9-19 start, and under interim manager Don Mattingly the club has gone 42-23 — the second-best record in the sport over that span — climbing to 54-43 and within shouting distance of first place in the NL East. The pitching staff has carried the load, posting the majors' best rotation ERA since Mattingly took over.
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Recent form.
Philadelphia's win over Detroit on July 12 snapped a stretch that included a lopsided 5-11 loss to Cincinnati, a reminder this team isn't invincible even in a strong run — but they've answered every stumble so far. For the Mets, there isn't much margin left to work with: Luis Robert Jr. is only just starting a rehab assignment, and the bullpen has been gutted by long-term injuries to Reed Garrett, Dedniel Nunez and Austin Warren.
New York Mets
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Philadelphia Phillies
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
This is less a rivalry clash than a gap-year checkup — one team trying to salvage a lost season, the other trying to keep pace with Atlanta. Scott gives the Mets a puncher's chance if he keeps missing bats, but until the lineup and bullpen stop bleeding outs, Philadelphia looks like the far steadier operation heading into Thursday.
