TLDR: Neither of these teams is going anywhere in October, but Pittsburgh just fell into the NL Central basement and the Mets are the only thing standing between them and a sixth straight loss.
+Deadline buyers, not sellers, still chasing October
+Home at PNC Park
+Mlodzinski dominant in short relief stints lately
−Lost 5 of last 6, fell into last place
−Keller out for the season
−Cruz and O'Hearn both sidelined
Zac Thornton (2-2, 2.88 ERA) gets the ball for New York, and the underlying number is better than the record suggests — his last time out against Miami was more bad luck than bad stuff, a 4.2-inning, 3-run outing that got away late. Across the field, Carmen Mlodzinski (6-3, 3.15) is making his first real turn in the rotation since Mitch Keller went down for the year, and Pittsburgh needs it to work.
Zac Thornton
(3-4)·3.04 ERA
Aug 1 vs Marlins
L
4.2IP
3ER
2K
3BB
94P
08/07 Lineup
Carmen Mlodzinski
(6-6)·4.03 ERA
May 25 vs Cubs
ND
5.0IP
1ER
2K
3BB
86P
08/07 Lineup
Mlodzinski has been quietly excellent doing exactly this kind of job out of the bullpen — three shutout innings in each of his last two outings — but stretching a reliever's workload into a starter's is its own test, and PNC Park will find out fast whether he can go five or six instead of three. Meanwhile the Mets are trying to win in spite of themselves: Juan Soto is out with a left calf strain that isn't expected to clear up before September, and Mark Vientos is sidelined with a fractured hand, which means the lineup Andy Green is running out there tonight isn't the one anyone drew up in spring.
Pittsburgh's injury list cuts just as deep — Oneil Cruz has no set timeline to return, Ryan O'Hearn is out with a quad strain, and the Pirates are already down their ace for the season. Both sides are patching lineups together, which is part of why the price on this one leans toward the home team even as Pittsburgh's form says otherwise.
That form gap is the story of the week. New York took the first 3 against Cleveland, riding a wave of three straight games with six-plus runs, capped by a 13-6 blowout. Pittsburgh has gone the opposite direction, dropping five of its last six and sliding into last place in the NL Central after ceding series after series down the stretch of a summer that started with the front office buying at the deadline instead of selling.
There's a real irony to Pittsburgh being favored tonight — a team that just lost five in a row, hosting the team that just won three straight. But the Pirates get the benefit of a soft matchup against a Mets rotation piece coming off a rough outing, and home cooking still counts for something at PNC Park. Whether Mlodzinski can turn a bullpen arm's workload into a legitimate start-length outing is the swing factor nobody can price with much confidence.
Mets 6, Pirates 4: Final Score & Odds Recap — Last-Place Pirates Host a Mets Team Playing Out the String
