The 35-16 Braves host the 25-26 Nationals at Truist on Friday night, and Atlanta is rolling out exactly the kind of mismatch the standings would suggest. Bryce Elder is 4-2 with a 2.01 ERA and has surrendered just 3 runs over his last 17 2/3 innings — he's leading the National League in ERA right now. Washington counters with lefty reliever Richard Lovelady as an opener, with Miles Mikolas lined up for bulk innings behind him.
DK money is heavy on Atlanta — 88% of the handle and 91% of the bets on the home ML — and it's tough to argue. Elder just hung 8 shutout innings on the Dodgers in his last start before getting tagged for 3 in a tough-luck 3-2 loss to Boston. The Nationals throwing a bullpen game at the NL ERA leader is not a recipe most rooms would draw up.
The wrinkle: Ronald Acuna Jr. left Thursday's win over Miami in the sixth with a left thumb bone bruise. X-rays were negative, Walt Weiss said Acuna was already lobbying to play Friday, and he's listed day-to-day — but he's a real game-time call. That matters more than usual because Atlanta is already running a stripped-down lineup with Sean Murphy out at least 8 weeks on the finger, Drake Baldwin on the IL with a Grade 1 oblique, Kyle Farmer on the IL, and Jurickson Profar suspended for the year.
- Day-To-DayTyler Baum DH — Baum has not pitched this year due an undisclosed injury.
- Day-To-DayTravis Sykora SP — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.
- Day-To-DayJarlin Susana RP — Susana underwent surgery last week to repair a right lat tear, Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post reports.
- 15-Day-ILCole Henry RP — Henry (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Rochester this weekend, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILMax Kranick RP — The Nationals signed Kranick (elbow) to a one-year, $800,000 contract Tuesday and placed him on the 15-day injured list.
- 60-Day-ILDJ Herz SP — Herz (elbow) will throw to live hitters Friday at the Nationals' spring training facility in Florida, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILTrevor Williams SP — Williams (elbow) began pitching off a mound at the Nationals' spring training complex this weekend, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILJosiah Gray SP — Gray (elbow) has resumed a throwing program, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
- Day-To-DayRonald Acuna Jr. RF — Acuna suffered a bone bruise on his left thumb in Thursday's 9-3 win over Miami, Barrett Sallee of 680 The Fan Atlanta reports.
- Day-To-DayBlake Burkhalter RP — Triple-A Gwinnett placed Burkhalter on the 7-day injured list March 27 with back spasms, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline reports.
- 10-Day-ILDrake Baldwin C — Baldwin was diagnosed with a Grade 1 right oblique strain Tuesday, Daniel Alvarez-Montes of ElExtraBase.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILKyle Farmer DH — Farmer went 1-for-3 with a double, a run scored and two RBI in Sunday's rout of the Guardians.
- 10-Day-ILSean Murphy C — Manager Walk Weiss said Tuesday that Murphy (finger) is expected to be sidelined at least eight weeks, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
- suspensionJurickson Profar LF — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILHurston Waldrep SP — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said May 13 that Waldrep (elbow) has felt fine since he began throwing bullpen sessions earlier in the month, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILJoe Jimenez RP — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss revealed Wednesday that Jimenez underwent another surgery on his left knee 3-to-4 weeks ago, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
Washington's pitching staff, meanwhile, is a triage center. DJ Herz, Trevor Williams, Josiah Gray, and Ken Waldichuk are all on the 60-day. Tyler Stuart just had Tommy John. That's why Lovelady is opening games in the first place — there's nobody else to give the ball to.
The total sits at 9.0 with the Over juiced slightly cheaper at +104, which feels honest given the matchup: Elder is the brake, the Nats' patched-together staff is the gas pedal. If Acuna scratches, the under gets a little more interesting. If he plays, the Braves look like a stiff -1.5 favorite that'll roll the dice on a tired Washington bullpen by the fifth.