DK money is heavy on Atlanta — 88% of the handle and 91% of the bets on the home ML — and it's tough to argue. Elder just hung 8 shutout innings on the Dodgers in his last start before getting tagged for 3 in a tough-luck 3-2 loss to Boston. The Nationals throwing a bullpen game at the NL ERA leader is not a recipe most rooms would draw up.
The wrinkle: Ronald Acuna Jr. left Thursday's win over Miami in the sixth with a left thumb bone bruise. X-rays were negative, Walt Weiss said Acuna was already lobbying to play Friday, and he's listed day-to-day — but he's a real game-time call. That matters more than usual because Atlanta is already running a stripped-down lineup with Sean Murphy out at least 8 weeks on the finger, Drake Baldwin on the IL with a Grade 1 oblique, Kyle Farmer on the IL, and Jurickson Profar suspended for the year.
- Day-To-DayTyler Baum (DH) — Baum has not pitched this year due an undisclosed injury.05/08
- Day-To-DayTravis Sykora (SP) — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayJarlin Susana (RP) — Susana underwent surgery last week to repair a right lat tear, Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILCole Henry (RP) — Henry (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Rochester this weekend, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.05/15
- 15-Day-ILMax Kranick (RP) — The Nationals signed Kranick (elbow) to a one-year, $800,000 contract Tuesday and placed him on the 15-day injured list.05/08
- OutTyler Stuart (SP) — Stuart underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this week, Bobby Blanco of MASNSports.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILDJ Herz (SP) — Herz (elbow) will throw to live hitters Friday at the Nationals' spring training facility in Florida, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.05/15
- 60-Day-ILTrevor Williams (SP) — Williams (elbow) began pitching off a mound at the Nationals' spring training complex this weekend, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJosiah Gray (SP) — Gray (elbow) has resumed a throwing program, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILKen Waldichuk (RP) — The Nationals transferred Waldichuk (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday.05/08
- Day-To-DayRonald Acuna Jr. (RF) — Acuna suffered a bone bruise on his left thumb in Thursday's 9-3 win over Miami, Barrett Sallee of 680 The Fan Atlanta reports.05/22
- Day-To-DayBlake Burkhalter (RP) — Triple-A Gwinnett placed Burkhalter on the 7-day injured list March 27 with back spasms, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILDrake Baldwin (C) — Baldwin was diagnosed with a Grade 1 right oblique strain Tuesday, Daniel Alvarez-Montes of ElExtraBase.com reports.05/19
- 10-Day-ILKyle Farmer (DH) — Farmer went 1-for-3 with a double, a run scored and two RBI in Sunday's rout of the Guardians.05/18
- 10-Day-ILSean Murphy (C) — Manager Walk Weiss said Tuesday that Murphy (finger) is expected to be sidelined at least eight weeks, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.05/12
- suspensionJurickson Profar (LF) — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILHurston Waldrep (SP) — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said May 13 that Waldrep (elbow) has felt fine since he began throwing bullpen sessions earlier in the month, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.05/21
- 60-Day-ILJoe Jimenez (RP) — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss revealed Wednesday that Jimenez underwent another surgery on his left knee 3-to-4 weeks ago, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.05/13
- 60-Day-ILSpencer Schwellenbach (SP) — Schwellenbach (elbow) received a positive update when evaluated last week and is expected to start a throwing program soon, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.05/12
- 60-Day-ILDanny Young (RP) — Atlanta transferred Young (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILAJ Smith-Shawver (SP) — Atlanta placed Smith-Shawver (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Friday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJoey Wentz (RP) — Atlanta placed Wentz (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
Washington's pitching staff, meanwhile, is a triage center. DJ Herz, Trevor Williams, Josiah Gray, and Ken Waldichuk are all on the 60-day. Tyler Stuart just had Tommy John. That's why Lovelady is opening games in the first place — there's nobody else to give the ball to.
The total sits at 9.0 with the Over juiced slightly cheaper at +104, which feels honest given the matchup: Elder is the brake, the Nats' patched-together staff is the gas pedal. If Acuna scratches, the under gets a little more interesting. If he plays, the Braves look like a stiff -1.5 favorite that'll roll the dice on a tired Washington bullpen by the fifth.