The Braves have been a steamroller — 4 wins in the last 5 and sitting at 36-17, best record on the planet — and they get a Sunday matinee against a Nationals team treading water at 26-27. The line reflects it: Atlanta is a sizable home favorite with the total parked at 8.5.
The Pérez story is the fun one. Atlanta DFA'd him earlier this year, he elected free agency, re-signed on a minor-league deal, and is now riding a 2.85 ERA with a career-high 10-punchout outing against the Marlins on his ledger. He coughed up 4 runs in 5 innings in that one, but the strikeouts and the 1.00 WHIP are real. He's earned the ball.
Foster Griffin, meanwhile, is the cautionary tale of small samples. He opened the year 3-0 with a 2.67 ERA and looked like a free-agent steal — then the league adjusted. He's surrendered 14 earned runs across 9.1 innings over his last two starts, which is how a 4.02 ERA happens to a guy who was shoving in April. The Truist Park lineup of Acuña, Olson, Albies and Harris is not the soft landing he's looking for.
The injury sheets tell you why this isn't a fair fight. Washington's rotation is held together with tape — Irvin is heading for an MRI, Herz and Williams and Gray are all on the 60-day, and Tyler Stuart just had Tommy John. Atlanta's banged up too (no Sean Murphy for 8 weeks, no Drake Baldwin, and the Profar suspension still hurts), but the Braves have the depth to absorb it. The Nationals do not.
- Day-To-DayJake Irvin SP — Irvin (shoulder/lat) will undergo an MRI on Sunday, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
- Day-To-DayTyler Baum DH — Baum has not pitched this year due an undisclosed injury.
- Day-To-DayTravis Sykora SP — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.
- Day-To-DayJarlin Susana RP — Susana underwent surgery last week to repair a right lat tear, Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post reports.
- 15-Day-ILCole Henry RP — Henry (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Rochester this weekend, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILMax Kranick RP — The Nationals signed Kranick (elbow) to a one-year, $800,000 contract Tuesday and placed him on the 15-day injured list.
- 60-Day-ILDJ Herz SP — Herz (elbow) will throw to live hitters Friday at the Nationals' spring training facility in Florida, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILTrevor Williams SP — Williams (elbow) began pitching off a mound at the Nationals' spring training complex this weekend, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayBlake Burkhalter RP — Triple-A Gwinnett placed Burkhalter on the 7-day injured list March 27 with back spasms, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline reports.
- 10-Day-ILDrake Baldwin C — Baldwin was diagnosed with a Grade 1 right oblique strain Tuesday, Daniel Alvarez-Montes of ElExtraBase.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILKyle Farmer DH — Farmer went 1-for-3 with a double, a run scored and two RBI in Sunday's rout of the Guardians.
- 10-Day-ILSean Murphy C — Manager Walk Weiss said Tuesday that Murphy (finger) is expected to be sidelined at least eight weeks, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
- suspensionJurickson Profar LF — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILAJ Smith-Shawver SP — Manager Walt Weiss said Friday that Smith-Shawver (elbow) has been throwing bullpen sessions, and the next step in his rehab is to face live hitters, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
- 60-Day-ILHurston Waldrep SP — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said May 13 that Waldrep (elbow) has felt fine since he began throwing bullpen sessions earlier in the month, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILJoe Jimenez RP — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss revealed Wednesday that Jimenez underwent another surgery on his left knee 3-to-4 weeks ago, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
Public money is hammering Atlanta — 87% of moneyline tickets and 90% of the handle on the Braves at -173. The model says that's a touch rich (EV is negative on every side of this card, so the books have it priced clean), but it's hard to talk yourself off the favorite when one rotation is intact and the other is a MASH unit. Lock in for a quick one — first pitch is 3:10 PM ET.