The bigger swing factor might be pitching depth on both sides. Washington's rotation and bullpen have been bled dry all year, and the Dodgers just added another arm to their own injured list this week — so neither staff arrives at Sunday looking like an Opening Day version of itself.
The Nationals are 67-75 and not sneaking into anything at this point, but they've been genuinely feisty lately — taking 2 of the last 3 from Miami and splitting a pair with Atlanta before dropping the finale of that set 0-9. That kind of split-the-difference stretch is basically Washington's whole season: competitive enough to matter on a given night, thin enough behind the scenes that it doesn't hold.
Los Angeles, meanwhile, is 82-57 and still a heavyweight by record, but the last week hasn't been kind — a win over Detroit sandwiched around results that included getting outscored 21-14 across back-to-back losses to St. Louis. None of that erases an 82-win floor, but it's a reminder the Dodgers haven't been steamrolling anybody lately.
Both injury boards tell a similar story: attrition, not one big loss. Washington's is mostly arms — Cade Cavalli shook off a scary comebacker to the calf and is expected to be fine, but Josiah Gray, DJ Herz, Connelly Early and three relievers are all deep into rehab assignments rather than the active roster. The Dodgers' list reads even longer at the top of the roster, with Roki Sasaki (blister), Edwin Diaz (neck) and now Eric Lauer (elbow, placed on the 15-day IL this week) all shelved, plus Andy Pages still working back from a hand injury in center.
None of that changes the shape of this series on paper — the Dodgers are still the far better club by record, the Nationals are still playing out a rebuild — but shorthanded pitching staffs on both sides are exactly the kind of thing that makes a getaway-day finale unpredictable. Whatever happens in the two games in between will go a long way toward deciding who's actually available Sunday.