Foster Griffin, of all people, has been the best pitcher on the Nationals' staff. The lefty came back stateside after three years in Japan, signed a one-year deal nobody wrote a column about, and has run out a 2.27 ERA across his first stretch of starts — including 7 innings of shutout ball against the White Sox in his last time out. He doesn't blow anybody away. He just mixes, throws strikes, and dares you to do something with it.
Miami's answer is Robby Snelling, the 22-year-old lefty the Marlins picked up in the Tanner Scott deal. He's making his MLB debut tonight after carving up Triple-A Jacksonville to the tune of a 1.86 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 6 starts. Forcing-the-issue numbers. The Marlins are 17-21, just snapped a 4-game skid on a walk-off throwing error in Baltimore, and could use the prospect jolt now.
The market has Miami as a clear favorite at -121, which is the kind of price that says 'we trust the kid' but doesn't quite say 'we love him.' DraftKings handle is split almost evenly on the moneyline while bets lean Miami — public is on the debut narrative, sharper money is hedging. The total sits at 8.5 with the under getting most of the money. Two lefties, one with a 2.27 ERA and one who hasn't thrown a big-league pitch — under makes intuitive sense, but debuts are coin flips.
The Nats injury list is doing the heavy lifting on why this rotation looks the way it does. Trevor Williams, DJ Herz, and Josiah Gray are all on the 60-day. Tyler Stuart's out. That's how Foster Griffin ends up the staff leader in basically every category. Miami's hurt list is shorter but stings in the pen — Pete Fairbanks on the 15-day is a real loss for a team that's going to need length out of a debutant tonight.
- Day-To-DayTyler Baum DH — no
- Day-To-DayTravis Sykora SP — no
- Day-To-DayLuis Garcia Jr. 1B — no
- Day-To-DayJarlin Susana RP — no
- 15-Day-ILClayton Beeter RP — no
- 15-Day-ILCole Henry RP — no
- 15-Day-ILMax Kranick RP — no
- 60-Day-ILTrevor Williams SP — no
- 10-Day-ILGriffin Conine LF — no
- 15-Day-ILPete Fairbanks RP — no
- 60-Day-ILRonny Henriquez RP — no
- 60-Day-ILAdam Mazur SP — no
- OutJesus Tinoco RP — no
Lean: Griffin has been the more proven arm by a country mile, and Washington has been the steadier team over its last 5 (3-2 vs. Miami's 1-4 entering the homestand finale). But debuts are weird — Snelling has the stuff to flat-out shove for 5 innings before anyone has a book on him. If you're picking a side, the Nats +1.5 at plus-money is the cleanest number on the board even if the EV math says no edge. Otherwise, watch the kid.