Payton Tolle (4-5, 2.78 ERA) takes the ball for Boston and is coming off one of the better starts of his young career — 7 shutout innings, 1 hit, and 7 strikeouts against the Yankees on June 26, retiring the first 16 batters before a 6th-inning single broke up his perfect game bid. He did all of it while pitching through illness. Washington counters with Andrew Alvarez (1-1, 3.44 ERA), who had a rough outing last time out at Baltimore: just 4.1 innings, 2 runs, 6 hits, and 3 walks on 88 pitches. On paper, Tolle is the sharper arm in this matchup.
The bigger story heading into Wednesday's finale is what Tuesday's blowout left behind. Starter Connelly Early exited the June 30 loss after just 4 innings with left elbow discomfort — at only 61 pitches — and is now listed day-to-day. For a Red Sox rotation already missing Garrett Crochet (shoulder/lat, 60-day IL), Tanner Houck (elbow, 60-day IL), Kutter Crawford (elbow, 60-day IL), and Johan Oviedo (elbow, 60-day IL), that is not a headline anyone in Boston wanted to read. The Nationals also brought some heat beyond Cavalli's arm — Willson Contreras was ejected after a 4th-inning confrontation sparked by Cavalli's strikeout celebration — and Washington carries the momentum and the attitude into this one.
Context for Boston's 37-47 record: Roman Anthony (finger/wrist) and Triston Casas (abdomen/knee) are both on the 60-day IL. Marcelo Mayer and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are each on the 10-day IL with stress reactions in their forearms. The 5-game win streak entering this series — which included 3 straight over the Yankees — was a legitimate run of good baseball. But the offense has real structural holes, and managing 1 run against Cavalli Tuesday was a reminder of how thin the lineup can look. Washington sits at 44-43 and has quietly played competitive baseball despite a rotation gutted by injuries of their own.
- Day-To-DayTravis Sykora SP — Sykora (elbow) began a throwing progression at the Nationals' complex in Florida earlier this month and is on schedule in his recovery from the UCL reconstruction surgery he underwent last August, MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayJarlin Susana RP — Susana threw from a mound this week for the first time since undergoing lat surgery last September, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayTyler Stuart SP — no
- Day-To-DayTyler Baum DH — Baum has not pitched this year due an undisclosed injury.
- 15-Day-ILMitchell Parker RP — Parker has been diagnosed with a Grade 3 UCL sprain in his left elbow and is likely to undergo Tommy John surgery, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILRichard Lovelady RP — The Nationals placed Lovelady on the 15-day injured list Monday with a left triceps strain.
- 15-Day-ILJake Irvin SP — Irvin (shoulder) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Kyle Williams of TheBanner.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILTrevor Williams SP — Williams (elbow) struck out a batter and allowed four runs (two earned) on four hits and no walks while recording two outs in a rehab start Sunday with Single-A Fredericksburg.
- Day-To-DayConnelly Early SP — Early left Tuesday's contest versus Washington in the fifth inning due to left elbow discomfort, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
- Day-To-DayHobie Harris RP — Harris was optioned to Triple-A Rochester on Saturday, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports.
- 10-Day-ILNick Sogard 3B — Sogard (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment Thursday, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.
- 10-Day-ILIsiah Kiner-Falefa 2B — Kiner-Falefa underwent a CT scan on his left forearm Thursday which revealed a stress reaction, MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILMarcelo Mayer 2B — The Red Sox placed Mayer on the 10-day injured list Friday with a stress reaction in his left forearm, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
- 15-Day-ILJovani Moran RP — Moran (elbow) will make at least one more rehab appearance before being activated, MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILPatrick Sandoval SP — Sandoval (biceps) struck out three and allowed one earned run on three hits and one walk across four innings Sunday in his rehab start with Triple-A Worcester.
- 60-Day-ILRoman Anthony LF — The Red Sox transferred Anthony (finger/wrist) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.
The Nationals are somehow above .500 with 7 pitchers on the injured list, including starters DJ Herz, Josiah Gray, Jake Irvin, and Trevor Williams — plus the news Monday that reliever Mitchell Parker is likely headed for Tommy John surgery. Alvarez has stepped into the rotation by necessity and held his own, but his last start was a reminder that he is not a sure thing. If Tolle is locked in the way he was against the Yankees, Boston wins this game. The problem is the Red Sox have to score to give him anything to protect. First pitch is at 1:35 PM ET.