Washington Nationals at Boston Red Sox

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
WSH	2	0	0	5	0	0	3	0	0	10	13	0
BOS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	9	0

Payton Tolle (4-5, 2.78 ERA) takes the ball for Boston and is coming off one of the better starts of his young career — 7 shutout innings, 1 hit, and 7 strikeouts against the Yankees on June 26, retiring the first 16 batters before a 6th-inning single broke up his perfect game bid. He did all of it while pitching through illness. Washington counters with Andrew Alvarez (1-1, 3.44 ERA), who had a rough outing last time out at Baltimore: just 4.1 innings, 2 runs, 6 hits, and 3 walks on 88 pitches. On paper, Tolle is the sharper arm in this matchup.

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FINAL

Spread

ML

Total

Nationals(44-43)

WLWWL

10

+1.5-150+133o9.5-104

Red Sox(37-47)

LWWWW

2

-1.5+138-138u9.5-100

Best BetNationals +120

Pregame

The Nationals enter as slight road favorites and have earned it. Washington holds a 7-game edge in the standings, just knocked off the Red Sox by 7 runs, and faces a Boston club that has been running on a skeleton roster for most of the season. Crochet, Anthony, Casas, and the rest of the Boston IL represent genuine subtracted talent — the Nationals are the healthier, better-record team, and the road chalk reflects that accurately.

The bigger story heading into Wednesday's finale is what Tuesday's blowout left behind. Starter Connelly Early exited the June 30 loss after just 4 innings with left elbow discomfort — at only 61 pitches — and is now listed day-to-day. For a Red Sox rotation already missing Garrett Crochet (shoulder/lat, 60-day IL), Tanner Houck (elbow, 60-day IL), Kutter Crawford (elbow, 60-day IL), and Johan Oviedo (elbow, 60-day IL), that is not a headline anyone in Boston wanted to read. The Nationals also brought some heat beyond Cavalli's arm — Willson Contreras was ejected after a 4th-inning confrontation sparked by Cavalli's strikeout celebration — and Washington carries the momentum and the attitude into this one.

Brad Lord

(5-2)·3.88 ERA

07/01 Lineup

Payton Tolle

(5-6)·3.11 ERA

Jun 26 vs Yankees

W

7.0IP

0ER

7K

2BB

88P

07/01 Lineup

Washington Nationals

(44-43)

Jun 30W@ Red Sox8-1

Jun 29L@ Red Sox3-6

Jun 28W@ Orioles6-4

Jun 27W@ Orioles4-3

Jun 26L@ Orioles1-3

Boston Red Sox

(37-47)

Jun 30Lvs Nationals1-8

Jun 29Wvs Nationals6-3

Jun 28Wvs Yankees5-4

Jun 27Wvs Yankees4-1

Jun 26Wvs Yankees6-1

Context for Boston's 37-47 record: Roman Anthony (finger/wrist) and Triston Casas (abdomen/knee) are both on the 60-day IL. Marcelo Mayer and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are each on the 10-day IL with stress reactions in their forearms. The 5-game win streak entering this series — which included 3 straight over the Yankees — was a legitimate run of good baseball. But the offense has real structural holes, and managing 1 run against Cavalli Tuesday was a reminder of how thin the lineup can look. Washington sits at 44-43 and has quietly played competitive baseball despite a rotation gutted by injuries of their own.

Washington Nationals

(12)

• Day-To-DayTravis Sykora (SP) — Sykora (elbow) began a throwing progression at the Nationals' complex in Florida earlier this month and is on schedule in his recovery from the UCL reconstruction surgery he underwent last August, MLB.com reports.06/29
• Day-To-DayJarlin Susana (RP) — Susana threw from a mound this week for the first time since undergoing lat surgery last September, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.06/14
• Day-To-DayTyler Stuart (SP) — no05/25
• Day-To-DayTyler Baum (DH) — Baum has not pitched this year due an undisclosed injury.05/08
• 15-Day-ILMitchell Parker (RP) — Parker has been diagnosed with a Grade 3 UCL sprain in his left elbow and is likely to undergo Tommy John surgery, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.06/30
• 15-Day-ILRichard Lovelady (RP) — The Nationals placed Lovelady on the 15-day injured list Monday with a left triceps strain.06/29
• 15-Day-ILJake Irvin (SP) — Irvin (shoulder) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Kyle Williams of TheBanner.com reports.06/22
• 60-Day-ILTrevor Williams (SP) — Williams (elbow) struck out a batter and allowed four runs (two earned) on four hits and no walks while recording two outs in a rehab start Sunday with Single-A Fredericksburg.06/29
• 60-Day-ILDJ Herz (SP) — Herz (elbow) was diagnosed Monday with a left flexor strain, Kyle Williams of TheBanner.com reports.06/22
• 60-Day-ILMax Kranick (RP) — Kranick (elbow) began a rehab assignment with Single-A Fredericksburg on Sunday, striking out two over 1.2 perfect innings.06/22
• 60-Day-ILKen Waldichuk (RP) — Waldichuk (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery and an internal brace procedure April 21 and is hopeful to return to game action at some point early in the 2027 season, Mark Zuckerman of MASNSports.com reports.06/11
• 60-Day-ILJosiah Gray (SP) — Gray (elbow) has resumed a throwing program, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.05/08

Boston Red Sox

(15)

• Day-To-DayConnelly Early (SP) — Early left Tuesday's contest versus Washington in the fifth inning due to left elbow discomfort, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.07/01
• Day-To-DayHobie Harris (RP) — Harris was optioned to Triple-A Rochester on Saturday, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports.05/08
• 10-Day-ILNick Sogard (3B) — Sogard (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment Thursday, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.06/30
• 10-Day-ILIsiah Kiner-Falefa (2B) — Kiner-Falefa underwent a CT scan on his left forearm Thursday which revealed a stress reaction, MLB.com reports.06/27
• 10-Day-ILMarcelo Mayer (2B) — The Red Sox placed Mayer on the 10-day injured list Friday with a stress reaction in his left forearm, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.06/26
• 15-Day-ILJovani Moran (RP) — Moran (elbow) will make at least one more rehab appearance before being activated, MLB.com reports.06/27
• OutBrendan Rodgers (2B) — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.05/08
• 60-Day-ILPatrick Sandoval (SP) — Sandoval (biceps) struck out three and allowed one earned run on three hits and one walk across four innings Sunday in his rehab start with Triple-A Worcester.06/29
• 60-Day-ILRoman Anthony (LF) — The Red Sox transferred Anthony (finger/wrist) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.06/28
• 60-Day-ILGarrett Crochet (SP) — Crochet (shoulder/lat) has not yet been cleared to resume a throwing program following a scheduled re-evaluation Monday, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.06/22
• 60-Day-ILTrevor Story (SS) — Story (abdomen) has begun jogging and swinging off a tee, MLB.com reports.06/20
• 60-Day-ILKutter Crawford (SP) — Interim manager Chad Tracy said Tuesday that Crawford (elbow) is dealing with moderate tightness in his right forearm, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.06/02
• 60-Day-ILTriston Casas (1B) — Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy told reporters Wednesday that Casas (abdomen/knee) is close to being cleared to swing a bat, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.05/27
• 60-Day-ILTanner Houck (SP) — Houck (elbow) has been making throws out to 105 feet three days per week, MLB.com reports.05/15
• 60-Day-ILJohan Oviedo (SP) — Oviedo (elbow) will be reevaluated by Dr. Keith Meister in two weeks to determine his progress, Marcos Grunfeld of ElEmergente.com reports.05/08

The Nationals are somehow above .500 with 7 pitchers on the injured list, including starters DJ Herz, Josiah Gray, Jake Irvin, and Trevor Williams — plus the news Monday that reliever Mitchell Parker is likely headed for Tommy John surgery. Alvarez has stepped into the rotation by necessity and held his own, but his last start was a reminder that he is not a sure thing. If Tolle is locked in the way he was against the Yankees, Boston wins this game. The problem is the Red Sox have to score to give him anything to protect. First pitch is at 1:35 PM ET.