Mikolas has been the punching bag of the Nats rotation, but he's quietly trending up — best outing of the year last time out, into the 6th, with 2 or fewer runs allowed in 4 of his last 6. The 7.44 ERA is real, the early-season blowups still on the ledger, but the last month has been closer to the back-end veteran Washington signed up for. Singer, meanwhile, is going the other way. He didn't get out of the 4th in 2 of his last 5, and the strikeouts have evaporated — he hasn't punched out more than 3 in any of those starts.
The injury sheets are why you're staring at this matchup in the first place. The Nationals have Trevor Williams, DJ Herz and Josiah Gray all on the 60-day, plus Tyler Stuart freshly post-Tommy John. The Reds are without Hunter Greene and just lost Rhett Lowder to the 15-day IL, while Eugenio Suarez is still rehabbing the oblique and Emilio Pagan is gone 4-to-8 weeks with a Grade 2 hamstring strain. The bullpen depth on both sides is being held together with duct tape.
- Day-To-DayTyler Baum (DH) — Baum has not pitched this year due an undisclosed injury.05/08
- Day-To-DayTravis Sykora (SP) — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayJarlin Susana (RP) — Susana underwent surgery last week to repair a right lat tear, Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILClayton Beeter (RP) — Beeter (forearm) has been cleared to resume throwing off the mound, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILCole Henry (RP) — Henry (shoulder) played catch Saturday, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILMax Kranick (RP) — The Nationals signed Kranick (elbow) to a one-year, $800,000 contract Tuesday and placed him on the 15-day injured list.05/08
- OutTyler Stuart (SP) — Stuart underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this week, Bobby Blanco of MASNSports.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILTrevor Williams (SP) — Williams (elbow) began pitching off a mound at the Nationals' spring training complex this weekend, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILDJ Herz (SP) — Herz (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJosiah Gray (SP) — Gray (elbow) has resumed a throwing program, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILKen Waldichuk (RP) — The Nationals transferred Waldichuk (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday.05/08
- Day-To-DayConnor Burns (C) — no05/08
- Day-To-DayJosh Staumont (RP) — The Twins reinstated Staumont (calf) from the 15-day injured list Friday and optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILEugenio Suarez (3B) — Suarez (oblique) took 50 swings Thursday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILCaleb Ferguson (RP) — Ferguson (oblique) walked one over a scoreless inning for Triple-A Louisville on Friday.05/10
- 15-Day-ILEmilio Pagan (RP) — Pagan said Wednesday that he's been diagnosed with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain and is expected to be sidelined 4-to-8 weeks, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.05/08
- OutRhett Lowder (SP) — Manager Terry Francona said Sunday that Lowder (shoulder) will be placed on the 15-day injured list, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.05/10
- OutCarson Spiers (SP) — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILHunter Greene (SP) — Greene (elbow) is up to 150 feet of long tossing as part of a rehab program in Arizona, Mike Petraglia of MLB.com reports.05/10
- 60-Day-ILBrandon Williamson (SP) — The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.05/08
The market has Cincinnati at -144 with a total parked at 10. That total is doing a lot of work. Singer's team is 6-1 against the spread when he starts this year, which feels less like a Singer endorsement and more like a referendum on the Reds' offense bailing him out at GABP. If you're shopping, the Reds' over/under record on totals of 9 or higher is sitting at 11-3 per FanDuel — a number the under crowd should respect before clicking.
Bottom line: home park, hurting rotations, and 2 starters whose ERAs would get you DFA'd in most rooms. The Reds are the rightful favorite with the better lineup and the home dugout, but if Mikolas' recent form carries over, Washington has every chance to turn this into a slugfest where the bullpens decide it. Plan accordingly.