The pitching matchup is where this gets interesting. Jake Irvin (1-4, 5.22) has been a punching bag most of the year, but his last trip out at Wrigley was at least passable — 5 innings, 2 runs. Nick Lodolo is making just his second start of 2026 after a blister on his index finger pushed his debut to May 8. He carried a 3.33 ERA across 28 starts last year, so the 6.75 number is one outing of small-sample noise, but a left-hander coming off a finger issue against a lineup that just hit six bombs is the kind of script you read twice.
The market still has the Reds as a decent home favorite at -149, and the public is leaning that way — 75% of moneyline bets are on Cincinnati. The EV on the home side is the worst number on the board (-0.069), which makes sense if you're squinting at last night's box score and wondering why anyone wants to lay juice on a team that just got steamrolled. Pinnacle's fair price has the Reds at 59.87% to win, so this isn't a coin flip, but it's also not the lock the handle suggests.
Cincinnati is still playing without Eugenio Suarez, who had an MRI last week to check the progress on his oblique and is finally resuming hitting. Hunter Greene and Rhett Lowder remain on the shelf in the rotation, which is a big reason Lodolo's return matters so much. Washington's injury list is its own horror movie — Trevor Williams, DJ Herz, Josiah Gray all on the 60-day — but Irvin taking the ball means the lineup is what's carrying this team right now anyway.
- Day-To-DayTyler Baum (DH) — Baum has not pitched this year due an undisclosed injury.05/08
- Day-To-DayTravis Sykora (SP) — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayJarlin Susana (RP) — Susana underwent surgery last week to repair a right lat tear, Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILClayton Beeter (RP) — Beeter (forearm) is ready to begin a rehab assignment, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.05/12
- 15-Day-ILCole Henry (RP) — Henry (shoulder) played catch Saturday, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILMax Kranick (RP) — The Nationals signed Kranick (elbow) to a one-year, $800,000 contract Tuesday and placed him on the 15-day injured list.05/08
- OutTyler Stuart (SP) — Stuart underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this week, Bobby Blanco of MASNSports.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILTrevor Williams (SP) — Williams (elbow) began pitching off a mound at the Nationals' spring training complex this weekend, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILDJ Herz (SP) — Herz (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJosiah Gray (SP) — Gray (elbow) has resumed a throwing program, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILKen Waldichuk (RP) — The Nationals transferred Waldichuk (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday.05/08
- Day-To-DayConnor Burns (C) — no05/08
- Day-To-DayJosh Staumont (RP) — The Twins reinstated Staumont (calf) from the 15-day injured list Friday and optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILEugenio Suarez (3B) — Suarez (oblique) will resume hitting Tuesday and is set for an MRI on Thursday to check the progress of his healing, Charlie Clifford of NBC 5 Cincinnati reports.05/12
- 15-Day-ILCaleb Ferguson (RP) — Ferguson (oblique) walked one over a scoreless inning for Triple-A Louisville on Friday.05/10
- 15-Day-ILEmilio Pagan (RP) — Pagan said Wednesday that he's been diagnosed with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain and is expected to be sidelined 4-to-8 weeks, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.05/08
- OutRhett Lowder (SP) — Manager Terry Francona said Sunday that Lowder (shoulder) will be placed on the 15-day injured list, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.05/10
- OutCarson Spiers (SP) — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILHunter Greene (SP) — Greene (elbow) is up to 150 feet of long tossing as part of a rehab program in Arizona, Mike Petraglia of MLB.com reports.05/10
- 60-Day-ILBrandon Williamson (SP) — The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.05/08
Total sits at 9.5 with the over getting 63% of bets. Given how Washington's bats are swinging and Lodolo's runway is essentially one tune-up start, the over isn't the worst-priced number on this card. First pitch is 5:40 PM local.