The Nationals and Reds wrap their quick set Wednesday afternoon at Great American, and Washington is rolling into the finale with the kind of swagger you don't expect from a 20-22 club. They lit up Brady Singer for six homers in a 10-4 win Tuesday, with Daylen Lile and Luis Garcia Jr. each going deep twice and James Wood collecting his 12th. Cincinnati, meanwhile, has dropped 3 of 5 and looks like a team waiting on bodies to come back.
The pitching matchup is where this gets interesting. Jake Irvin (1-4, 5.22) has been a punching bag most of the year, but his last trip out at Wrigley was at least passable — 5 innings, 2 runs. Nick Lodolo is making just his second start of 2026 after a blister on his index finger pushed his debut to May 8. He carried a 3.33 ERA across 28 starts last year, so the 6.75 number is one outing of small-sample noise, but a left-hander coming off a finger issue against a lineup that just hit six bombs is the kind of script you read twice.
The market still has the Reds as a decent home favorite at -149, and the public is leaning that way — 75% of moneyline bets are on Cincinnati. The EV on the home side is the worst number on the board (-0.069), which makes sense if you're squinting at last night's box score and wondering why anyone wants to lay juice on a team that just got steamrolled. Pinnacle's fair price has the Reds at 59.87% to win, so this isn't a coin flip, but it's also not the lock the handle suggests.
Cincinnati is still playing without Eugenio Suarez, who had an MRI last week to check the progress on his oblique and is finally resuming hitting. Hunter Greene and Rhett Lowder remain on the shelf in the rotation, which is a big reason Lodolo's return matters so much. Washington's injury list is its own horror movie — Trevor Williams, DJ Herz, Josiah Gray all on the 60-day — but Irvin taking the ball means the lineup is what's carrying this team right now anyway.
- Day-To-DayTyler Baum DH — Baum has not pitched this year due an undisclosed injury.
- Day-To-DayTravis Sykora SP — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.
- Day-To-DayJarlin Susana RP — Susana underwent surgery last week to repair a right lat tear, Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post reports.
- 15-Day-ILClayton Beeter RP — Beeter (forearm) is ready to begin a rehab assignment, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILCole Henry RP — Henry (shoulder) played catch Saturday, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILMax Kranick RP — The Nationals signed Kranick (elbow) to a one-year, $800,000 contract Tuesday and placed him on the 15-day injured list.
- 60-Day-ILTrevor Williams SP — Williams (elbow) began pitching off a mound at the Nationals' spring training complex this weekend, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILDJ Herz SP — Herz (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayConnor Burns C — no
- Day-To-DayJosh Staumont RP — The Twins reinstated Staumont (calf) from the 15-day injured list Friday and optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
- 10-Day-ILEugenio Suarez 3B — Suarez (oblique) will resume hitting Tuesday and is set for an MRI on Thursday to check the progress of his healing, Charlie Clifford of NBC 5 Cincinnati reports.
- 15-Day-ILCaleb Ferguson RP — Ferguson (oblique) walked one over a scoreless inning for Triple-A Louisville on Friday.
- 15-Day-ILEmilio Pagan RP — Pagan said Wednesday that he's been diagnosed with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain and is expected to be sidelined 4-to-8 weeks, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
- 60-Day-ILHunter Greene SP — Greene (elbow) is up to 150 feet of long tossing as part of a rehab program in Arizona, Mike Petraglia of MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILBrandon Williamson SP — The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
- OutRhett Lowder SP — Manager Terry Francona said Sunday that Lowder (shoulder) will be placed on the 15-day injured list, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
Total sits at 9.5 with the over getting 63% of bets. Given how Washington's bats are swinging and Lodolo's runway is essentially one tune-up start, the over isn't the worst-priced number on this card. First pitch is 5:40 PM local.