The Nationals already torched the Reds for 10 runs and 6 homers on Monday, then rallied from a 5-0 first-inning hole to take Wednesday 8-7 in 10 innings. Now they get the matinee shot at the sweep at Great American, where Cincinnati has been quietly bleeding starts.
The marquee is the arms. Foster Griffin, the lefty Washington plucked out of Japan on a 1-year, $5.5M deal, is 4-1 with a 2.12 ERA and has given up 2 earned or fewer in 6 of 8 starts — including 1 or 0 in each of his last 3. Chase Burns has been even tougher to barrel, sitting at 4-1, 2.11, with a slider that's already among the best in the NL. This is a legit pitchers' duel on paper, even if the lines say otherwise.
The market is leaning hard on Cincinnati despite the form mismatch. The Reds opened around -152 on the moneyline and the public is sniffing the over at 9.5 — DK has the total a full run and a half above Pinnacle's 8. That's a meaningful gap when both starters are running sub-2.20 ERAs.
Health is the other story, and it's mostly a Reds problem. Hunter Greene is still on the 60-day with the elbow, Rhett Lowder just landed on the 15-day with a shoulder, Brady Singer got knocked around for 3 runs in 3.2 innings on Tuesday, and Eugenio Suarez is still working back from the oblique. Washington's IL is long, but it's almost entirely arms they've already moved on from this year — the lineup that just hit 6 homers in a game is intact.
- Day-To-DayTyler Baum DH — Baum has not pitched this year due an undisclosed injury.
- Day-To-DayTravis Sykora SP — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.
- Day-To-DayJarlin Susana RP — Susana underwent surgery last week to repair a right lat tear, Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post reports.
- 15-Day-ILClayton Beeter RP — Beeter (forearm) is ready to begin a rehab assignment, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILCole Henry RP — Henry (shoulder) played catch Saturday, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILMax Kranick RP — The Nationals signed Kranick (elbow) to a one-year, $800,000 contract Tuesday and placed him on the 15-day injured list.
- 60-Day-ILTrevor Williams SP — Williams (elbow) began pitching off a mound at the Nationals' spring training complex this weekend, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILDJ Herz SP — Herz (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayBrady Singer SP — Singer (2-3) took the loss Tuesday, giving up three runs on six hits and a walk over 3.2 innings as the Reds fell 10-4 to the Nationals. He struck out two.
- Day-To-DayConnor Burns C — no
- Day-To-DayJosh Staumont RP — The Twins reinstated Staumont (calf) from the 15-day injured list Friday and optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
- 10-Day-ILEugenio Suarez 3B — Suarez (oblique) will resume hitting Tuesday and is set for an MRI on Thursday to check the progress of his healing, Charlie Clifford of NBC 5 Cincinnati reports.
- 15-Day-ILRhett Lowder SP — Manager Terry Francona said Sunday that Lowder (shoulder) will be placed on the 15-day injured list, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- 15-Day-ILCaleb Ferguson RP — Ferguson (oblique) walked one over a scoreless inning for Triple-A Louisville on Friday.
- 15-Day-ILEmilio Pagan RP — Pagan said Wednesday that he's been diagnosed with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain and is expected to be sidelined 4-to-8 weeks, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
- 60-Day-ILHunter Greene SP — Greene (elbow) is up to 150 feet of long tossing as part of a rehab program in Arizona, Mike Petraglia of MLB.com reports.
Reds avoid the sweep if Burns goes 7 and the bullpen — minus Emilio Pagan and Caleb Ferguson — can navigate a Washington lineup that's been mashing on the road (15-9 away coming in). Otherwise this becomes a real conversation about a Cincinnati rotation that's down to Burns and a lot of question marks.