Both clubs are hovering right around .500 with the calendar working against them, and neither has strung together anything resembling real momentum. That's the backdrop for a market that's leaning harder on Baltimore than the raw two teams might suggest.
The Orioles have alternated losses and wins over their last five, taking 2 of 3 from Cleveland after getting swept in a short set against Boston, while the Blue Jays have gone the same 2-3 across a road trip through Kansas City and Oakland that ended on a sour note — a shutout loss to the Athletics. Neither team is playing inspired baseball, but Baltimore's split came against a Cleveland club fighting for playoff positioning, which is a tougher measuring stick than a fading A's group.
The injury boards on both sides read like a snapshot of two teams whose seasons went sideways well before September. Baltimore's is deeper up the middle — Henderson, Franklin and Robert all questionable or out — while Toronto's damage is concentrated in the rotation, which matters more given Scherzer's own shaky form.