The Orioles (20-25) and Nationals (22-23) meet again Saturday afternoon, and both clubs are clinging to wild-card relevance more than divisional hope. Per the series preview, these two staffs sit among the five worst ERAs in baseball, so the over/under living up at 9.5-10 makes a lot of sense before anyone throws a pitch.
Chris Bassitt (3-2, 5.21) gets the ball for Baltimore, and the vibes are not great. His last time out he gave up 5 runs in 5.1 innings against the Royals, and the local coverage has openly wondered if he's pitching his way out of a rotation spot. A Nationals lineup that's already top-3 in the majors in runs scored is not the soft landing he needs.
Cade Cavalli (1-2, 4.02) counters for Washington, and the headline issue with him is length. He's only made it through 5 full innings once in his first handful of starts, walking 4 in 4.2 innings his last time out against the Cardinals. Even with a tidy ERA on the surface, a 1.47 WHIP means traffic, and traffic against an Orioles offense missing Mountcastle, Westburg, Holliday, Kjerstad and Beavers is still… an Orioles offense missing five regulars.
- Day-To-DayRichard Guasch SP — no
- Day-To-DayWill Robertson LF — The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
- Day-To-DayKeagan Gillies P — Gillies will be sidelined for at least six weeks with a quad injury, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
- Day-To-DayLuis Vazquez SS — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Vazquez has been diagnosed with a broken right thumb, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILDylan Beavers RF — Beavers (oblique) is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Yankees.
- 10-Day-ILJackson Holliday 2B — Holliday (hand) will play at third base in a rehab game with Double-A Chesapeake on Sunday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
- 15-Day-ILRyan Helsley RP — Helsley (elbow) played catch Friday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILGrant Wolfram RP — The Orioles placed Wolfram on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with a lower-back strain, retroactive to Saturday.
- Day-To-DayTyler Baum DH — Baum has not pitched this year due an undisclosed injury.
- Day-To-DayTravis Sykora SP — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.
- Day-To-DayJarlin Susana RP — Susana underwent surgery last week to repair a right lat tear, Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post reports.
- 15-Day-ILCole Henry RP — Henry (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Rochester this weekend, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILClayton Beeter RP — Beeter (forearm) is ready to begin a rehab assignment, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILMax Kranick RP — The Nationals signed Kranick (elbow) to a one-year, $800,000 contract Tuesday and placed him on the 15-day injured list.
- 60-Day-ILDJ Herz SP — Herz (elbow) will throw to live hitters Friday at the Nationals' spring training facility in Florida, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILTrevor Williams SP — Williams (elbow) began pitching off a mound at the Nationals' spring training complex this weekend, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
The Orioles IL is genuinely absurd — 2 Tommy Johns (Westburg, Eflin), Bautista still ramping back from shoulder surgery, Helsley only just playing catch, plus Kremer and Povich down in the rotation. Washington isn't whole either — Trevor Williams and Josiah Gray are both 60-day arms — but Baltimore is the team that's been gutted at every level.
The market makes this a coin flip, which tracks. Pinnacle has the Nats at -107 with a fair win probability of 50.7%, and DK is offering +119 on Washington — that's the only number on the board without a negative EV tag, and the public is still hammering Baltimore (73% of moneyline handle on the road dog at -143). Read into that what you want. Run line and total both grade out negative EV, so if you're playing this one, the home dog is where the math points.
Bottom line: 2 shaky rotations, 1 offense that can actually slug, and a Baltimore club running out lineup cards with half the Opening Day roster missing. Give me unders on Bassitt's strikeout prop and overs on the team-total whiteboard for Washington.