Shane Baz (2-5, 4.48) gets the ball for the O's opposite Connelly Early (5-2, 2.95) in the series opener at Fenway, first pitch 6:45 PM ET. Records don't quite tell the story on either guy — Baz is in the middle of his best stretch of the year, and Early has been the closest thing Boston has to an ace.
Baz is coming off a 7-inning, 1-run, 9-K gem against the Rays and has now strung together 3 straight starts of 6+ innings. He's also 3-1 with a 2.64 ERA in his career against the Red Sox, which is the kind of footnote that tends to matter when a pitcher walks into Fenway feeling himself. Early answered with his own 7-inning shutout outing against Atlanta on May 27 — 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 K, 4 H on 97 pitches. The 24-year-old lefty has worked into the 6th in 5 of his last 8.
Both teams are 3-2 in their last 5 and trending the right way. The Orioles just wrapped a 10-game homestand by taking 7, including a series win over the AL East-leading Blue Jays. Boston, meanwhile, took 2 of 3 in Cleveland to crawl back toward respectability after the Braves dropped a 10-2 hammer on them last Thursday. The Sox are still just 9-19 at Fenway, which is the genuinely weird stat in this whole game.
The injury lists are where this matchup gets ugly fast. Baltimore is missing Mountcastle, Westburg (Tommy John), Eflin (also Tommy John), Bautista, Kremer, Povich — basically half a rotation and a third of a lineup. Boston isn't faring much better with Crochet shut down again with lat tightness, Story out 6-10 weeks after sports hernia surgery, Roman Anthony shut down from swinging, and Contreras and Rafaela both day-to-day. Whoever can patch together 9 healthy hitters wins half the battle.
- Day-To-DayLevi Wells P — Wells underwent successful core-muscle surgery Thursday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
- Day-To-DayRichard Guasch SP — no
- Day-To-DayWill Robertson LF — The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
- Day-To-DayLuis Vazquez SS — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Vazquez has been diagnosed with a broken right thumb, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILDylan Beavers RF — Beavers (oblique) hit in the batting cage Wednesday, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
- 15-Day-ILRyan Helsley RP — Helsley (elbow) said Sunday that he's scheduled to complete a few more bullpen sessions and will gradually ramp up the intensity of his throwing before he resumes facing hitters, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILCade Povich SP — Povich (elbow) met with Dr. Keith Meister on Tuesday and is without an official timetable for his return after receiving a cortisone injection, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
- 60-Day-ILDean Kremer SP — The Orioles transferred Kremer (quadriceps) to the 60-day injured list Friday, MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayWillson Contreras 1B — Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy said that Contreras is being held out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Guardians while he manages a lingering wrist/hand injury, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
- Day-To-DayCeddanne Rafaela CF — Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy said that Rafaela was scratched from the lineup for Sunday's game against the Guardians due to a sore lower back, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
- Day-To-DayHobie Harris RP — Harris was optioned to Triple-A Rochester on Saturday, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports.
- 10-Day-ILRoman Anthony LF — Anthony (finger) felt discomfort while hitting off a tee Thursday and has been shut down from swinging, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILTrevor Story SS — Story underwent surgery to repair a sports hernia Thursday and will be sidelined 6-10 weeks, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
- 15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet SP — Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy said Sunday that Crochet (shoulder) began experiencing lat tightness over the past few days and will have his throwing program shut down for the time being, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILGarrett Whitlock RP — Whitlock (knee) threw from flat ground Thursday but has been shut down after experiencing discomfort, MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILTriston Casas 1B — Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy told reporters Wednesday that Casas (abdomen/knee) is close to being cleared to swing a bat, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.
Pinnacle has the Sox at -129 with a total of 8.5. That feels about right — Fenway is Fenway, Early has earned the chalk, and the Orioles bullpen behind Baz is the soft spot. But if Baz keeps doing what he did to Tampa, this turns into a 3-2 game in the 7th real quick, and at that point it's whichever lineup blinks first.