First pitch is 1:35 PM ET and the rubber match falls to Trevor Rogers (2-6, 6.84) against Brayan Bello (2-5, 5.63), which is roughly the pitching equivalent of two guys arguing over who has to drive. Pinnacle has Boston at -144 with the total sitting at 8.5, and given who's toeing the slab, the over feels like the easier read.
Bello is the wildcard here. He hasn't started a game since May 17 — that 5-inning, 7-earned-run stinker in Atlanta — and the Sox have been using him behind an opener, where he's posted a 0.71 ERA in 25.1 innings. As a traditional starter this year, his ERA is 9.68. The Red Sox are sending him out in the first inning anyway, against a lineup that just beat them on Tuesday. Pick a version and we'll see which one shows up.
Rogers, meanwhile, has been a problem. Since returning from the flu IL, he's allowed 21 earned runs in 18.1 innings across four starts with 5 homers given up. His last time out he went 6 innings of 4-earned against Toronto and didn't factor in the decision — that's basically his ceiling right now. Baltimore took the opener 4-2 on Tuesday and then got blown out 8-1 last night when Chris Bassitt lasted 3 innings and Blaze Alexander lost a fly ball in the Fenway lights for a 2-run triple. Series swings on this one.
The injury column is doing real damage to both sides. Baltimore is without Ryan Mountcastle, Jordan Westburg (Tommy John), Zach Eflin (also TJ), Cade Povich, Dean Kremer, and Felix Bautista is still climbing back from shoulder surgery. Boston's list is somehow worse — Garrett Crochet hit the 15-day with a lat strain on Tuesday, Trevor Story had sports hernia surgery (6-10 weeks), Roman Anthony is shut down from swinging with a finger issue, and Triston Casas is still out. Two rosters held together with athletic tape.
- Day-To-DayChris Bassitt SP — Bassitt didn't factor into the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays after tossing six innings of one-run ball, allowing four hits and a walk while striking out two.
- Day-To-DayLevi Wells P — Wells underwent successful core-muscle surgery Thursday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
- Day-To-DayRichard Guasch SP — no
- Day-To-DayWill Robertson LF — The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
- 10-Day-ILDylan Beavers RF — Beavers (oblique) hit in the batting cage Wednesday, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
- 15-Day-ILRyan Helsley RP — Helsley (elbow) said Sunday that he's scheduled to complete a few more bullpen sessions and will gradually ramp up the intensity of his throwing before he resumes facing hitters, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILCade Povich SP — Povich (elbow) met with Dr. Keith Meister on Tuesday and is without an official timetable for his return after receiving a cortisone injection, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
- 60-Day-ILDean Kremer SP — The Orioles transferred Kremer (quadriceps) to the 60-day injured list Friday, MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayHobie Harris RP — Harris was optioned to Triple-A Rochester on Saturday, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports.
- 10-Day-ILNick Sogard 3B — Sogard is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Guardians, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
- 10-Day-ILRoman Anthony LF — Anthony (finger) felt discomfort while hitting off a tee Thursday and has been shut down from swinging, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILTrevor Story SS — Story underwent surgery to repair a sports hernia Thursday and will be sidelined 6-10 weeks, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
- 15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet SP — Crochet (shoulder) was diagnosed with a low-grade lat strain Tuesday, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILGarrett Whitlock RP — Whitlock (knee) "felt really good" while throwing a side session Tuesday, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.
- 60-Day-ILRomy Gonzalez 1B — Gonzalez (shoulder) took batting practice at Fenway Park on Wednesday, WEEI reports.
- 60-Day-ILPatrick Sandoval SP — Sandoval (biceps/elbow) will begin a rehab assignment this weekend, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.
Interim manager Chad Tracy got the offense he wanted last night — Wilyer Abreu went deep, the Sox stacked 5 in the 5th — and now he needs Bello, in whatever form, to hand the game to a bullpen that's down its best left-hander. Baltimore counters with a starter who's been an arsonist and a lineup that's won 4 of its last 6. At 8.5 with two question-mark arms, the under feels like a trap and the moneyline is a coin flip wearing a cap.