The Brewers swept the Yankees over the weekend for the first time since 1989, then jumped Matt Waldron with a big third inning to take the series opener from San Diego 6-4 on Tuesday. They are 23-16, they have won 5 in a row, and they get the ball back in the hand of their best arm. The Padres flew into Milwaukee 24-17 and are now playing from behind in this series before they even threw a meaningful pitch.
Jacob Misiorowski is the headline. The 24-year-old right-hander struck out 11 in 6 scoreless innings against the Yankees on Friday, allowed 2 singles, and reportedly hit 102 mph with each of his first 10 pitches of the game. He carries a 2.45 ERA and an MLB-leading strikeout total into this start. The only blip lately was a hamstring cramp that cut a hitless outing short the start before, so the only real question is whether the leg cooperates for a full 6 innings.
Michael King is the kind of arm built to neutralize the noise. A 2.76 ERA, a 3-2 record, and the type of mix that travels — which is good, because the Padres rotation behind him is a disaster area. Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Nick Pivetta, and German Marquez are all on the shelf. King is essentially holding the staff together with duct tape and a changeup.
- Day-To-DayBlake Hunt C — Hunt is dealing with an oblique injury and has been shut down from activity, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
- 7-day ilJake Cronenworth 2B — The Padres placed Cronenworth on the 7-day concussion injured list Tuesday, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILLuis Campusano C — The Padres placed Campusano on the 10-day injured list Thursday due to a left toe fracture.
- 15-Day-ILGerman Marquez SP — The Padres placed Marquez on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to right forearm nerve irritation.
- 15-Day-ILNick Pivetta SP — Padres manager Craig Stammen told reporters Wednesday that Pivetta was diagnosed with a right flexor strain, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
- 60-Day-ILJhony Brito RP — Brito (forearm) struck out seven and allowed one earned run on two hits and one walk across three innings Thursday in a rehab start in the rookie-level Arizona Complex League.
- 60-Day-ILJoe Musgrove SP — The Padres transferred Musgrove (elbow) to the 60-day injured list on Thursday.
- 60-Day-ILBryan Hoeing RP — The Padres transferred Hoeing (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
- Day-To-DayGerson Garabito RP — Garabito will be out for four months after undergoing surgery to address a broken bone in his foot, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
- Day-To-DayJ.B. Bukauskas RP — Bukauskas will undergo surgery on his injured right lat and be sidelined for 9-to-10 months, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
- 10-Day-ILBrandon Lockridge LF — Lockridge is expected to be sidelined until mid-to-late June after an MRI on his right knee showed a bone bruise, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
- 15-Day-ILJared Koenig RP — Koenig (elbow) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
- 15-Day-ILBrandon Woodruff SP — Woodruff (shoulder) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session Thursday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILQuinn Priester SP — Priester (shoulder) will resume a rehab assignment this weekend, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
- 15-Day-ILAngel Zerpa RP — Zerpa will undergo UCL reconstruction on his left elbow next week, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
- 60-Day-ILAkil Baddoo LF — Baddoo (quadriceps) will begin a rehab assignment Friday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
The position-player side isn't much kinder to San Diego. Jake Cronenworth is on the 7-day concussion IL, both catchers (Luis Campusano and Blake Hunt) are banged up, and a thin lineup now has to dig in against a guy throwing 102. Milwaukee has its own absences — Brandon Woodruff and Quinn Priester still working back, Brandon Lockridge out until mid-to-late June — but on this specific night, with this specific pitching matchup, those don't matter as much.
The market sees it the same way most people do. Brewers around -142, Padres around +131, and a total that DraftKings has all the way up at 9 while Pinnacle keeps it at 7 — a 2-run gap that tells you the sharps and the books aren't aligned on how much offense actually shows up here. The EV is negative across the board, so this isn't a screaming bet, it's a watch-the-strikeouts kind of night.
Bottom line: the Brewers are the hotter team, have the better pitcher tonight, and are at home with the crowd behind a streak. The Padres counter with a legit ace and not a lot else. If King goes 7 strong and the bullpen holds, San Diego steals one and the series resets. If Misiorowski is sitting 101 again in the 5th, this gets ugly fast.