Getaway day in Milwaukee, and there's a lot more on the table than a Thursday afternoon line score. The Padres and Brewers split the first two of this set, and now San Diego has to navigate Kyle Harrison — who has not allowed more than 2 runs in any of his 7 starts this year — just to fly home with a series win.
Harrison has been the Brewers' best offseason move nobody talked about. The 24-year-old lefty came over from Boston and immediately punched out 12 Pirates in 6 scoreless his last time out, which is the kind of thing that bumps a 2.41 ERA into legitimate Cy Young chatter territory. Griffin Canning, meanwhile, is 0-1 with a 6.75 in 2 starts since coming back from last year's torn Achilles. The xERA says he's been better than the surface line; the scoreboard says otherwise.
The market is treating Milwaukee like the clear side and the public agrees — 81% of moneyline bets and 80% of the handle are on the Brewers at home. Pinnacle has the fair number at -145, DraftKings is juicing it to -168, and neither side of this game grades out as positive EV. The total is the more interesting disagreement: Pinnacle at 8, DK at 7. Buying a half-run of total for a Harrison start is not the worst thing in the world.
- Day-To-DayBlake Hunt C — Hunt is dealing with an oblique injury and has been shut down from activity, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
- 7-day ilJake Cronenworth 2B — The Padres placed Cronenworth on the 7-day concussion injured list Tuesday, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILLuis Campusano C — The Padres placed Campusano on the 10-day injured list Thursday due to a left toe fracture.
- 15-Day-ILGerman Marquez SP — The Padres placed Marquez on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to right forearm nerve irritation.
- 15-Day-ILNick Pivetta SP — Padres manager Craig Stammen told reporters Wednesday that Pivetta was diagnosed with a right flexor strain, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
- 60-Day-ILJhony Brito RP — Brito (forearm) struck out seven and allowed one earned run on two hits and one walk across three innings Thursday in a rehab start in the rookie-level Arizona Complex League.
- 60-Day-ILJoe Musgrove SP — The Padres transferred Musgrove (elbow) to the 60-day injured list on Thursday.
- 60-Day-ILBryan Hoeing RP — The Padres transferred Hoeing (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
- Day-To-DayJacob Misiorowski SP — Misiorowski left his start Wednesday against the Padres due to quad cramping, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
- Day-To-DayChristian Yelich DH — Brewers manager Pat Murphy said that Yelich is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Padres due to back soreness, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayGerson Garabito RP — Garabito will be out for four months after undergoing surgery to address a broken bone in his foot, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
- Day-To-DayJ.B. Bukauskas RP — Bukauskas will undergo surgery on his injured right lat and be sidelined for 9-to-10 months, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
- 10-Day-ILBrandon Lockridge LF — Lockridge is expected to be sidelined until mid-to-late June after an MRI on his right knee showed a bone bruise, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
- 15-Day-ILJared Koenig RP — Koenig (elbow) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
- 15-Day-ILBrandon Woodruff SP — Woodruff (shoulder) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session Thursday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILQuinn Priester SP — Priester (shoulder) will resume a rehab assignment this weekend, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Both clubs are taped together. The Padres are down most of a rotation — Darvish, Musgrove, Marquez and Pivetta all on the shelf — plus Jake Cronenworth on the 7-day concussion IL and both catchers (Campusano, Hunt) unavailable. Milwaukee is dealing with Christian Yelich's back, and Jacob Misiorowski exited Wednesday's game with quad cramping. Pat Murphy's lineup card today is going to look creative either way.
The case for the Padres is simple: Canning's strikeout stuff plays, the Brewers' bats just got a long look at him isn't a worry yet, and San Diego is 25-17 for a reason even with half the roster banged up. The case against them is also simple, and his name is Kyle Harrison. Rubber match at noon — the kind of game that quietly matters in October.