San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers

Sat Oct 37:30 PM CTMilwaukee, WI
By JR·2 min read
San Diego PadresSD(91-71)
Milwaukee BrewersMIL(103-59)
Saturday 10/037:30 PM

TLDR: The 103-win Brewers spent the week resting and waiting. The Padres spent it shutting down the Cubs' lineup in 2 games, and now these two clubs meet in the playoffs for the first time.

SUN OCT 4, 7:30 PM
(91-71)
WWWWL
(103-59)
WWWWW

The 103-win Brewers open the NLDS at home behind Jacob Misiorowski, the presumptive NL Cy Young winner, coming off a week of rest. San Diego swept the Cubs to get here, but it used Musgrove and Pivetta to do it and hasn't named a Game 1 starter. Game 1 comes down to whether a hot Padres lineup and a lockdown bullpen can cover for a rotation stretched thin against the best arm in the league.

San Diego Padres
  • Allowed 1 run in 2 Wild Card games vs Cubs
  • Mason Miller and bullpen rested before Game 1
  • Tatis and Machado already homering this postseason
  • Game 1 starter unnamed; top 2 used vs Chicago
  • Giolito, Mize missing from rotation
  • Laureano, Rengifo out; Sheets playing on torn foot
Milwaukee Brewers
  • Misiorowski: 1.80 ERA, 252 K, 0.80 WHIP
  • Rotation lined up, Henderson set for Game 2
  • Won final 5, swept Cardinals to close season
  • Bats idle nearly a week before Game 1
  • Ortiz (knee) and Vaughn (illness) availability unclear
  • Woodruff, Priester losses thin the rotation behind Miz

Milwaukee's Game 1 starter is no secret. Jacob Misiorowski (16-5, 1.80) gets the ball on Saturday, October 3 at American Family Field after a regular season that ended with him leading the majors in ERA, strikeouts (252) and WHIP (0.80). His .157 opponents' average is the lowest on record for a qualifying pitcher in a full season. San Diego still hasn't named its starter. Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta started the 2 Wild Card games, so whoever the Padres send out will be coming from deeper in a rotation that's already missing Lucas Giolito and Casey Mize.

San Diego Padres
TBD
—
TBD
ND
—IP
—ER
—K
—BB
—P
10/03 Lineup
Jacob Misiorowski
Jacob Misiorowski
(16-5)·1.80 ERA
Sep 27 vs Cardinals
W
5.1IP
0ER
5K
2BB
68P
10/03 Lineup

The Padres reached this round by handling the best offense in baseball. They beat the Cubs 8-0 and 4-1 to finish the sweep. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado both homered in the opener. In the clincher, Gavin Sheets, playing through a torn plantar plate in his left foot, came off the bench and hit a go-ahead 2-run homer off a 100.8 mph fastball. Mason Miller and the bullpen closed it out. Over 2 games, San Diego allowed 1 run to a lineup built to pile them up, and that's why the Padres feel live against a 103-win team instead of looking like a speed bump.

Milwaukee comes in with the opposite problem. The Brewers haven't played since closing the regular season with a sweep of the Cardinals, so this is a lineup that's been off for most of a week facing a staff that just played meaningful games. Rested arms against cold bats is the standard bye-round question, and Game 1 is where the answer shows up. Pat Murphy has already said Logan Henderson starts Game 2, so the Brewers have their front 2 lined up exactly the way they wanted.

09/30WvsCubs4-1
09/29WvsCubs8-0
09/27WvsDiamondbacks9-4
09/26WvsDiamondbacks10-7
09/25LvsDiamondbacks4-11
09/27WvsCardinals6-4
09/26WvsCardinals3-2
09/25WvsCardinals8-4
09/24W@Phillies5-1
09/23W@Phillies4-1

The records don't hide anything. Milwaukee won its last 5 to finish 103-59, and San Diego has won 4 straight, the last 2 against Chicago. The Padres finished 12 games behind the Brewers in the standings, though, and in a short series the bigger concern for them is the 3rd-best arm than the overall win total. In a short series, that gap matters most when the other side's Game 1 starter is the presumptive Cy Young winner.

Both clubs are working around holes. San Diego is without Ramon Laureano and Luis Rengifo in the outfield. Miguel Andujar was taking live at-bats on his way back from a wrist injury, and Sheets is playing on a bad foot. Milwaukee's rotation depth already took hits from Brandon Woodruff's shoulder and Quinn Priester's season-ending surgery. Joey Ortiz (knee) and Andrew Vaughn (illness) are the 2 to watch when lineups post. Vaughn was cleared for a full team workout, and Ortiz was held out of the regular-season finale.

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NLDS Game 1: San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers — Padres Bring Their Wild Card Sweep Into Misiorowski's House | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush