Barstool Bush
Predictions

San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs

By Bush StaffUpdated 52d ago·2 min read
San Diego PadresSD(43-41)
Chicago CubsCHC(48-38)
3—23
FINAL
123456789RHE
SD
0000200103111
CHC
31504208—23170

Walker Buehler (5-3, 3.81 ERA) gets the ball for San Diego against Colin Rea (5-5, 4.80 ERA) in the rubber match of a three-game set at Wrigley. The Cubs took the opener Monday 3-2, and on paper the pitching matchup today is the clearest argument the Padres have had all series — Buehler has been genuinely excellent, while Rea has been one of the more homer-prone starters in the majors this season.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Padres(43-41)
LLLLW
3
Cubs(48-38)
WWWWL
23
Best BetCubs -129
Pregame

The Cubs at -127 are a fair price for a team 5 games over .500 hosting a Padres club that's lost 4 in a row. Rea has been a liability with the long ball all season, and backing Chicago at home while they're this hot is the right side. The only real push-back is Buehler's form — but even June's best Buehler only goes about 5 innings.

Buehler posted a 1.71 ERA across his 5 June starts, allowing just 1 run in each outing, and he capped the month by beating his former Dodgers club while they were rolling. The guy has become the anchor of a rotation in crisis mode. Rea, meanwhile, enters at 4.80 and has surrendered 12 home runs on the season — the Cubs' lineup will be looking for one to leave the yard early.

San Diego Padres
Walker Buehler
(5-5)·5.36 ERA
Jun 26 vs Dodgers
W
5.1IP
1ER
5K
3BB
74P
07/01 Lineup
Chicago Cubs
Colin Rea
(7-5)·4.75 ERA
Jun 26 @ Brewers
ND
5.0IP
1ER
4K
3BB
89P
07/01 Lineup
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
(43-41)
Jul 1L@ Cubs7-9
Jun 30L@ Cubs2-3
Jun 28Lvs Dodgers2-4
Jun 28Lvs Dodgers3-15
Jun 27Wvs Dodgers7-1
Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs
(48-38)
Jul 1Wvs Padres9-7
Jun 30Wvs Padres3-2
Jun 28W@ Brewers4-3
Jun 27W@ Brewers8-2
Jun 26L@ Brewers2-6

Chicago comes in at 48-38 having won 6 of their last 7, and Pete Crow-Armstrong's run has been the story of the summer. In a 23-game stretch, Crow-Armstrong hit .412/.468/.835 with 10 homers and 40 hits — a pace that Cubs historians hadn't seen since Ryne Sandberg in 1984. The streak cooled a bit against the Brewers, but this lineup has also racked up 10 walk-off wins on the year, most in baseball. These Cubs know how to close.

San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
(11)
  • 10-Day-ILLuis Campusano (C) — Campusano (toe) will embark on a rehab assignment with Triple-A El Paso later this week, Annie Heilbrunn of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.06/29
  • 15-Day-ILDavid Morgan (RP) — The Padres recalled Morgan from Triple-A El Paso on Friday.06/29
  • 15-Day-ILGerman Marquez (SP) — Marquez (forearm) will make another rehab start with Triple-A El Paso on Tuesday, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.06/29
  • 15-Day-ILMatt Waldron (SP) — Waldron (forearm) struck out four and allowed two earned runs on two hits and four walks across 2.2 innings Thursday in a rehab start with Triple-A El Paso.06/29
  • 15-Day-ILLucas Giolito (SP) — Giolito was placed on the 15-day injured list Tuesday, retroactive to Monday, with right elbow inflammation.06/23
  • 15-Day-ILJeremiah Estrada (RP) — Estrada (2-2) picked up the loss after giving up the eventual game-winning run in a 3-2 loss to Philadelphia on Tuesday.06/05
  • OutYu Darvish (SP) — Darvish (elbow) revealed Tuesday in a social media post that he has resumed playing catch.05/12
  • 60-Day-ILNick Pivetta (SP) — Pivetta (forearm) threw a light bullpen session Saturday, MLB.com reports.06/29
  • 60-Day-ILJoe Musgrove (SP) — Musgrove (elbow) started playing catch in late May, per MLB.com.06/08
  • 60-Day-ILRamon Laureano (LF) — Laureano underwent surgery Friday to repair his torn right labrum, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.06/05
  • 60-Day-ILBryan Hoeing (RP) — The Padres transferred Hoeing (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.05/08
Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs
(17)
  • Day-To-DayJaxon Wiggins (SP) — The Cubs announced Wednesday that Wiggins (elbow) has resumed throwing bullpen sessions and facing hitters at the organization's complex in Arizona and could soon be ready to pitch in games, MLB.com reports.06/13
  • Day-To-DayBrandon Birdsell (RP) — Birdsell (elbow) will miss the entire 2026 season, Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline reports.05/08
  • 10-Day-ILMatt Shaw (RF) — The Cubs placed Shaw on the 10-day injured list Monday due to a sprained left hand, Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com reports.06/29
  • 15-Day-ILEthan Roberts (RP) — The Cubs placed Roberts on the 15-day injured list Monday due to right forearm inflammation.06/29
  • 15-Day-ILDaniel Palencia (RP) — Palencia (elbow) is progressing in his rehab from elbow tendinitis, but he won't be activated from the injured list until after the All-Star break, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports.06/28
  • 15-Day-ILHoby Milner (RP) — Milner (abdomen) will be sidelined 4-to-6 weeks after undergoing emergency appendectomy surgery on Friday, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports.06/27
  • 15-Day-ILJameson Taillon (SP) — Manager Craig Counsell said Friday that there's a chance Taillon (hamstring) will return from the injured list before the All-Star break, Vinnie Duber of the Chicago Sun-Times reports.06/27
  • 15-Day-ILPhil Maton (RP) — The Cubs placed Maton (knee) on the 15-day injured list Friday with a right knee injury, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.06/26
  • 15-Day-ILBen Brown (RP) — Cubs manager Craig Counsell said Thursday that Brown has been diagnosed with a stress reaction in his neck and will have limited activity for the next month, 104.3 The Score reports.06/25
  • 15-Day-ILEdward Cabrera (SP) — Cabrera was diagnosed with a moderate-grade left hamstring strain Wednesday following an MRI and is without a return timeline, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.06/24
  • 15-Day-ILRiley Martin (RP) — The Cubs announced June 10 that Martin (elbow) has resumed playing catch, MLB.com reports.06/22
  • 60-Day-ILJustin Steele (SP) — Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said Tuesday in a radio appearance that he doesn't expect Steele (elbow) to rejoin the major-league rotation this season, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports.06/23
  • 60-Day-ILHunter Harvey (RP) — The Cubs moved Harvey (triceps) from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday.05/17
  • 60-Day-ILPorter Hodge (RP) — The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILShelby Miller (RP) — The Cubs placed Miller (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILCade Horton (SP) — The Cubs transferred Horton (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILTyler Austin (1B) — The Cubs placed Austin (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08

San Diego's rotation situation is the real albatross on this team right now. Musgrove, Darvish, Pivetta, Giolito, Waldron, and Marquez are all unavailable — Buehler is the only reliable arm they have, and if he cracks today, there's not much left behind him. The Padres have dropped 4 straight after looking sharp in that June 27 win over the Dodgers, and facing a Cubs team with this kind of momentum in their own park is a rough spot to try and stop the slide.

Sources

MLBSan Diego PadresChicago CubsPolymarketKalshiWalker BuehlerColin Rea